[Applause] hello thanks for coming it’s a great
hello thanks for coming it’s a great
hello thanks for coming it’s a great honor to be here and I want to start
honor to be here and I want to start
honor to be here and I want to start with a pretty obvious connection that
with a pretty obvious connection that
with a pretty obvious connection that all of us share all of us can identify
all of us share all of us can identify
all of us share all of us can identify with and that’s having brothers and
with and that’s having brothers and
with and that’s having brothers and sisters and parents and cousins and what
sisters and parents and cousins and what
sisters and parents and cousins and what I’m showing you here is a family tree of
I’m showing you here is a family tree of
I’m showing you here is a family tree of Victoria and Albert apparently there’s a
Victoria and Albert apparently there’s a
Victoria and Albert apparently there’s a bit more information here that I only
bit more information here that I only
bit more information here that I only realized after I had already gone to the
realized after I had already gone to the
realized after I had already gone to the trouble of pasting this Wikimedia image
trouble of pasting this Wikimedia image
trouble of pasting this Wikimedia image in my first slide which has to do with
in my first slide which has to do with
in my first slide which has to do with the blood diseases that these members of
the blood diseases that these members of
the blood diseases that these members of the royal family have brought with them
the royal family have brought with them
the royal family have brought with them so that’s that’s a very obvious
so that’s that’s a very obvious
so that’s that’s a very obvious connection that everyone here can
connection that everyone here can
connection that everyone here can identify with hopefully not with the
identify with hopefully not with the
identify with hopefully not with the blood disease part but certainly having
blood disease part but certainly having
blood disease part but certainly having cousins is something we all can identify
cousins is something we all can identify
cousins is something we all can identify with the proposition of evolutionary
with the proposition of evolutionary
with the proposition of evolutionary biology is quite extraordinary the
biology is quite extraordinary the
biology is quite extraordinary the proposition as an evolutionary biologist
proposition as an evolutionary biologist
proposition as an evolutionary biologist is that not only individuals but species
is that not only individuals but species
is that not only individuals but species share family trees in other words there
share family trees in other words there
share family trees in other words there were living breathing pooping combing
were living breathing pooping combing
were living breathing pooping combing and I suppose I should stop there with
and I suppose I should stop there with
and I suppose I should stop there with the adjectives real animals that
the adjectives real animals that
the adjectives real animals that represented a common ancestor for
represented a common ancestor for
represented a common ancestor for example between a human being and a
example between a human being and a
example between a human being and a chimpanzee that’s the proposition that I
chimpanzee that’s the proposition that I
chimpanzee that’s the proposition that I submit to you and I suppose being here
submit to you and I suppose being here
submit to you and I suppose being here in the middle of cultured and educated
in the middle of cultured and educated
in the middle of cultured and educated London this is not an extraordinary or
London this is not an extraordinary or
London this is not an extraordinary or terribly new proposition to all of you
terribly new proposition to all of you
terribly new proposition to all of you but it is a pretty extraordinary
but it is a pretty extraordinary
but it is a pretty extraordinary proposition nonetheless and what I want
proposition nonetheless and what I want
proposition nonetheless and what I want to do is convey to you some evidence
to do is convey to you some evidence
to do is convey to you some evidence some extraordinary evidence as to why
some extraordinary evidence as to why
some extraordinary evidence as to why you should accept this proposition is
you should accept this proposition is
you should accept this proposition is actually true and the most compelling
actually true and the most compelling
actually true and the most compelling kinds of evidence concerned things like
kinds of evidence concerned things like
kinds of evidence concerned things like the fossil record and molecular biology
the fossil record and molecular biology
the fossil record and molecular biology and bio geography those things are not
and bio geography those things are not
and bio geography those things are not really going to talk about rather I’m
really going to talk about rather I’m
really going to talk about rather I’m going to talk about classification
classification as a line of evidence to
classification as a line of evidence to convey to you that connections are
convey to you that connections are
convey to you that connections are shared among living things in an
shared among living things in an
shared among living things in an evolutionary sense so humans have been
evolutionary sense so humans have been
evolutionary sense so humans have been classifying pretty much for our entire
classifying pretty much for our entire
classifying pretty much for our entire existence as a thinking species which in
existence as a thinking species which in
existence as a thinking species which in terms of the anatomy anatomically modern
terms of the anatomy anatomically modern
terms of the anatomy anatomically modern humans have been around for probably
humans have been around for probably
humans have been around for probably about a quarter 200
about a quarter 200
about a quarter 200 250,000 years culture of course is much
250,000 years culture of course is much
250,000 years culture of course is much younger we classify things based on
younger we classify things based on
younger we classify things based on arbitrary principles in some cases for
arbitrary principles in some cases for
arbitrary principles in some cases for example currency the fact that you use
example currency the fact that you use
example currency the fact that you use dollars in New York pound sterling in
dollars in New York pound sterling in
dollars in New York pound sterling in London and euros in Berlin is arbitrary
London and euros in Berlin is arbitrary
London and euros in Berlin is arbitrary we could all this very moment decide to
we could all this very moment decide to
we could all this very moment decide to start spending euros in London I’m not
start spending euros in London I’m not
start spending euros in London I’m not holding my breath at the moment but it
holding my breath at the moment but it
holding my breath at the moment but it is in theory possible and there is no
is in theory possible and there is no
is in theory possible and there is no fundamental reason why we shouldn’t use
fundamental reason why we shouldn’t use
fundamental reason why we shouldn’t use euros in London in contrast when we
euros in London in contrast when we
euros in London in contrast when we classify animals I propose to you if
classify animals I propose to you if
classify animals I propose to you if evolution is true then we should expect
evolution is true then we should expect
evolution is true then we should expect classifications that use an evolutionary
classifications that use an evolutionary
classifications that use an evolutionary paradigm to be similar to one another so
paradigm to be similar to one another so
paradigm to be similar to one another so let me rephrase that slightly we have
let me rephrase that slightly we have
let me rephrase that slightly we have lots of reasons why humans have made
lots of reasons why humans have made
lots of reasons why humans have made classifications over the course of the
classifications over the course of the
classifications over the course of the last several millennia for example the
last several millennia for example the
last several millennia for example the authors of Leviticus chapter 11 were
authors of Leviticus chapter 11 were
authors of Leviticus chapter 11 were quite keen to convey to the Israelites
quite keen to convey to the Israelites
quite keen to convey to the Israelites what they should eat and what they
what they should eat and what they
what they should eat and what they shouldn’t eat that’s a perfectly decent
shouldn’t eat that’s a perfectly decent
shouldn’t eat that’s a perfectly decent reason to make a classification and as
reason to make a classification and as
reason to make a classification and as the centuries were on we had the Arab
the centuries were on we had the Arab
the centuries were on we had the Arab Persian Golden Age starting in about the
Persian Golden Age starting in about the
Persian Golden Age starting in about the ninth century we had enlightened
ninth century we had enlightened
ninth century we had enlightened Englishmen like John ray in the 17th
Englishmen like John ray in the 17th
Englishmen like John ray in the 17th century we’re not really sure as to why
century we’re not really sure as to why
century we’re not really sure as to why they made their classifications I mean
they made their classifications I mean
they made their classifications I mean they wrote a lot about them and the
they wrote a lot about them and the
they wrote a lot about them and the historians of science among you may have
historians of science among you may have
historians of science among you may have pretty good intuitions as to why they
pretty good intuitions as to why they
pretty good intuitions as to why they made their classifications I will simply
made their classifications I will simply
made their classifications I will simply say that a individual like John ray and
say that a individual like John ray and
say that a individual like John ray and 1693 recognized that the whale was a
1693 recognized that the whale was a
1693 recognized that the whale was a mammal that had a four chambered heart
mammal that had a four chambered heart
mammal that had a four chambered heart had live birth and was more closely
had live birth and was more closely
had live birth and was more closely related to other mammals and not to
related to other mammals and not to
related to other mammals and not to teleost fish for example he was simply
teleost fish for example he was simply
teleost fish for example he was simply trying to get at what was quote-unquote
trying to get at what was quote-unquote
trying to get at what was quote-unquote natural and of course by the time of the
natural and of course by the time of the
natural and of course by the time of the late 19th and early 20th century this
late 19th and early 20th century this
late 19th and early 20th century this evolutionary proposition was widely
evolutionary proposition was widely
evolutionary proposition was widely accepted and scientists made the
accepted and scientists made the
accepted and scientists made the American paleontologist William King
American paleontologist William King
American paleontologist William King Gregory for example wrote his
Gregory for example wrote his
Gregory for example wrote his classifications not only to convey
classifications not only to convey
classifications not only to convey something convenient but to convey
something convenient but to convey
something convenient but to convey something about this evolutionary
something about this evolutionary
something about this evolutionary pattern of
pattern of
pattern of life now right so the the crux of what I
life now right so the the crux of what I
life now right so the the crux of what I want to convey to you has to do with
want to convey to you has to do with
want to convey to you has to do with this proposition if biological evolution
this proposition if biological evolution
this proposition if biological evolution really happened then evolutionary
really happened then evolutionary
really happened then evolutionary classifications those like William King
classifications those like William King
classifications those like William King Gregory should resemble what we now
Gregory should resemble what we now
Gregory should resemble what we now today consider to be a well corroborated
today consider to be a well corroborated
today consider to be a well corroborated tree more than non evolutionary
tree more than non evolutionary
tree more than non evolutionary classifications and similarly authors
classifications and similarly authors
classifications and similarly authors who are using evolutionary criteria to
who are using evolutionary criteria to
who are using evolutionary criteria to make their classifications should
make their classifications should
make their classifications should resemble each other more so than
resemble each other more so than
resemble each other more so than classifications that don’t use
classifications that don’t use
classifications that don’t use evolutionary criteria this is what we
evolutionary criteria this is what we
evolutionary criteria this is what we should expect if biological evolution
should expect if biological evolution
should expect if biological evolution really happens this is something beyond
really happens this is something beyond
really happens this is something beyond if evolution is something beyond a human
if evolution is something beyond a human
if evolution is something beyond a human convenience if it’s really there right
convenience if it’s really there right
convenience if it’s really there right and so since the middle of the 19th
and so since the middle of the 19th
and so since the middle of the 19th century we have a lot of additional
century we have a lot of additional
century we have a lot of additional tweaks and improvements and discoveries
tweaks and improvements and discoveries
tweaks and improvements and discoveries concerning biological evolution in fact
concerning biological evolution in fact
concerning biological evolution in fact I get in trouble with some of my
I get in trouble with some of my
I get in trouble with some of my colleagues for repeating the names
colleagues for repeating the names
colleagues for repeating the names Darwin and Wallace because that gives
Darwin and Wallace because that gives
Darwin and Wallace because that gives the general public the impression that
the general public the impression that
the general public the impression that not much has happened since 1859 which
not much has happened since 1859 which
not much has happened since 1859 which is of course not true lots has happens
is of course not true lots has happens
is of course not true lots has happens its 1859 for the purposes of my
its 1859 for the purposes of my
its 1859 for the purposes of my remaining minutes what I want to convey
remaining minutes what I want to convey
remaining minutes what I want to convey to you as one very minor improvement is
to you as one very minor improvement is
to you as one very minor improvement is quite technical but it’s important and
quite technical but it’s important and
quite technical but it’s important and this concerns this concept this
this concerns this concept this
this concerns this concept this principle of cladistics
principle of cladistics
principle of cladistics the way I’m going to use that term here
the way I’m going to use that term here
the way I’m going to use that term here is very simple it means that when you
is very simple it means that when you
is very simple it means that when you use an item of classification a taxon
use an item of classification a taxon
use an item of classification a taxon when you group animals together in a
when you group animals together in a
when you group animals together in a group you should observe the principle
group you should observe the principle
group you should observe the principle of monophyly and what I mean by that is
of monophyly and what I mean by that is
of monophyly and what I mean by that is when you give a group a name it should
when you give a group a name it should
when you give a group a name it should contain that group should contain all of
contain that group should contain all of
contain that group should contain all of the descendants of a single common
the descendants of a single common
the descendants of a single common ancestor so for example today we place
ancestor so for example today we place
ancestor so for example today we place humans in a group with chimpanzees and
humans in a group with chimpanzees and
humans in a group with chimpanzees and gorillas based on the fact that these
gorillas based on the fact that these
gorillas based on the fact that these three animals share a common ancestor
three animals share a common ancestor
three animals share a common ancestor and we give the name to that group of
and we give the name to that group of
and we give the name to that group of hominin a now in older textbook say the
hominin a now in older textbook say the
hominin a now in older textbook say the beginning or middle of the 20th century
beginning or middle of the 20th century
beginning or middle of the 20th century you might have seen the name ponga day
you might have seen the name ponga day
you might have seen the name ponga day this is part of the shaded tree I’m sure
this is part of the shaded tree I’m sure
this is part of the shaded tree I’m sure you hear that is not a cladistic Allah
you hear that is not a cladistic Allah
you hear that is not a cladistic Allah proper name because it places the three
proper name because it places the three
proper name because it places the three other great apes but not humans in its
other great apes but not humans in its
other great apes but not humans in its own category so we shouldn’t use pong
own category so we shouldn’t use pong
own category so we shouldn’t use pong today according to cladistics we should
today according to cladistics we should
today according to cladistics we should use hominin a because it groups the
use hominin a because it groups the
use hominin a because it groups the animals that actually share that all of
animals that actually share that all of
animals that actually share that all of the descendants of a single common
the descendants of a single common
the descendants of a single common ancestor so this is another elaboration
ancestor so this is another elaboration
ancestor so this is another elaboration or another improvement on evolutionary
or another improvement on evolutionary
or another improvement on evolutionary methodology among many others that I
methodology among many others that I
methodology among many others that I don’t have time to get into so what I do
don’t have time to get into so what I do
don’t have time to get into so what I do have time to mention in fact I am
have time to mention in fact I am
have time to mention in fact I am obliged to mention I’ve mentioned this
obliged to mention I’ve mentioned this
obliged to mention I’ve mentioned this concept of the well corroborated tree
concept of the well corroborated tree
concept of the well corroborated tree and this is an explicitly precise
and this is an explicitly precise
and this is an explicitly precise hypothesis of how in this particular
hypothesis of how in this particular
hypothesis of how in this particular case all the various groups of mammals
case all the various groups of mammals
case all the various groups of mammals are interrelated and all you need by the
are interrelated and all you need by the
are interrelated and all you need by the way are about 60 of these terminal taxa
way are about 60 of these terminal taxa
way are about 60 of these terminal taxa 60 mice and humans and gorillas and
60 mice and humans and gorillas and
60 mice and humans and gorillas and monotremes and you will exhaust the
monotremes and you will exhaust the
monotremes and you will exhaust the number of possible rooted bifurcating
number of possible rooted bifurcating
number of possible rooted bifurcating trees or the number of rooted
trees or the number of rooted
trees or the number of rooted bifurcating trees will exceed the number
bifurcating trees will exceed the number
bifurcating trees will exceed the number of atoms in the visible universe the
of atoms in the visible universe the
of atoms in the visible universe the number of possible ways that you can
number of possible ways that you can
number of possible ways that you can connect this tree together is vast it’s
connect this tree together is vast it’s
connect this tree together is vast it’s about well in this case 460 terminals
about well in this case 460 terminals
about well in this case 460 terminals it’s about 10 to the 80 right which is
it’s about 10 to the 80 right which is
it’s about 10 to the 80 right which is more possible trees than there are atoms
more possible trees than there are atoms
more possible trees than there are atoms in the visible universe so this is a
in the visible universe so this is a
in the visible universe so this is a very specific hypothesis and this
very specific hypothesis and this
very specific hypothesis and this particular tree is based on a number of
particular tree is based on a number of
particular tree is based on a number of peer-reviewed papers that I’ve listed on
peer-reviewed papers that I’ve listed on
peer-reviewed papers that I’ve listed on this slide that are based on a body of
this slide that are based on a body of
this slide that are based on a body of data namely molecular genetics that
data namely molecular genetics that
data namely molecular genetics that William King Gregory in 1910 did not
William King Gregory in 1910 did not
William King Gregory in 1910 did not know existed so this is the well
know existed so this is the well
know existed so this is the well carbureted tree and what I want to do is
carbureted tree and what I want to do is
carbureted tree and what I want to do is ask the question to what extent to
ask the question to what extent to
ask the question to what extent to historical classifications create groups
historical classifications create groups
historical classifications create groups that look like this tree that’s one side
that look like this tree that’s one side
that look like this tree that’s one side of the coin and the other side that I
of the coin and the other side that I
of the coin and the other side that I mentioned is asking the extent to which
mentioned is asking the extent to which
mentioned is asking the extent to which different classifiers agreed with with
different classifiers agreed with with
different classifiers agreed with with one another so let me give you an
one another so let me give you an
one another so let me give you an example of how one can go about making
example of how one can go about making
example of how one can go about making these comparisons so this is a picture
these comparisons so this is a picture
these comparisons so this is a picture of gottfrid’s store who in the 18th
of gottfrid’s store who in the 18th
of gottfrid’s store who in the 18th century was very interested in
century was very interested in
century was very interested in classification he came up with a
classification he came up with a
classification he came up with a classification of vertebrates in
classification of vertebrates in
classification of vertebrates in particular mammals
particular mammals
particular mammals in 1780 and much of what he said was
in 1780 and much of what he said was
in 1780 and much of what he said was wrong
wrong
wrong compared to the well carburetor tree but
compared to the well carburetor tree but
compared to the well carburetor tree but he got a couple things right and I want
he got a couple things right and I want
he got a couple things right and I want to point out two of those things the
to point out two of those things the
to point out two of those things the only two marsupials that he had in his
only two marsupials that he had in his
only two marsupials that he had in his classification he put together
classification he put together
classification he put together he had a falender and had an opossum he
he had a falender and had an opossum he
he had a falender and had an opossum he also recognized in his classification
also recognized in his classification
also recognized in his classification the fact that the otter is a mostello I
the fact that the otter is a mostello I
the fact that the otter is a mostello I the otter is not related to semi aquatic
the otter is not related to semi aquatic
the otter is not related to semi aquatic rodents it’s not related to manatees
rodents it’s not related to manatees
rodents it’s not related to manatees it’s not related to whales he put it
it’s not related to whales he put it
it’s not related to whales he put it with things like weasels recognizing
with things like weasels recognizing
with things like weasels recognizing that the otter belongs in a group with
that the otter belongs in a group with
that the otter belongs in a group with other mustelids so I’ve depicted those
other mustelids so I’ve depicted those
other mustelids so I’ve depicted those two features of his classification in
two features of his classification in
two features of his classification in these thick bold wines and they
these thick bold wines and they
these thick bold wines and they correspond given the sample that store
correspond given the sample that store
correspond given the sample that store had with what we actually know about the
had with what we actually know about the
had with what we actually know about the well corroborated tree of mammals the
well corroborated tree of mammals the
well corroborated tree of mammals the other point that I should mention is
other point that I should mention is
other point that I should mention is that we obviously can’t punish poor got
that we obviously can’t punish poor got
that we obviously can’t punish poor got trade for not placing the very famous
trade for not placing the very famous
trade for not placing the very famous Chilean monito Delmont a in its proper
Chilean monito Delmont a in its proper
Chilean monito Delmont a in its proper position because in 1780 he didn’t know
position because in 1780 he didn’t know
position because in 1780 he didn’t know about the existence of that animal so we
about the existence of that animal so we
about the existence of that animal so we have to take that into consideration so
have to take that into consideration so
have to take that into consideration so out of a possible 35 groups that store
out of a possible 35 groups that store
out of a possible 35 groups that store could have had in common with a well
could have had in common with a well
could have had in common with a well carbureted tree he got two so in 1780
carbureted tree he got two so in 1780
carbureted tree he got two so in 1780 that’s actually not so bad so we give
that’s actually not so bad so we give
that’s actually not so bad so we give him a ratio of 0.06 which is two divided
him a ratio of 0.06 which is two divided
him a ratio of 0.06 which is two divided by 36 or 35 and I want to do that now
by 36 or 35 and I want to do that now
by 36 or 35 and I want to do that now for a whole bunch of other
for a whole bunch of other
for a whole bunch of other classifications before I do I want to
classifications before I do I want to
classifications before I do I want to share with you this other technique this
share with you this other technique this
share with you this other technique this other method of comparing
other method of comparing
other method of comparing classifications over time and this is
classifications over time and this is
classifications over time and this is not their resemblance to the well krodha
not their resemblance to the well krodha
not their resemblance to the well krodha tree per se but it is the resemblance of
tree per se but it is the resemblance of
tree per se but it is the resemblance of themselves with each other right so
themselves with each other right so
themselves with each other right so remember the the fundamental principle
remember the the fundamental principle
remember the the fundamental principle here is if these guys are onto something
here is if these guys are onto something
here is if these guys are onto something if evolutionary principles enable you to
if evolutionary principles enable you to
if evolutionary principles enable you to get at classification to reflect reality
get at classification to reflect reality
get at classification to reflect reality effectively then you should agree with
effectively then you should agree with
effectively then you should agree with one another more than not so here we
one another more than not so here we
one another more than not so here we have on this particular graph twelve
have on this particular graph twelve
have on this particular graph twelve eleven different a bunch of different
eleven different a bunch of different
eleven different a bunch of different time bins dating to prior to 1750 about
time bins dating to prior to 1750 about
time bins dating to prior to 1750 about four or five authors and each one of
four or five authors and each one of
four or five authors and each one of them and on the y-axis we have the
them and on the y-axis we have the
them and on the y-axis we have the extent to which they
extent to which they
extent to which they with one another so the higher you are
with one another so the higher you are
with one another so the higher you are on that y-axis the more groups you have
on that y-axis the more groups you have
on that y-axis the more groups you have in common now I’ve made this slide here
in common now I’ve made this slide here
in common now I’ve made this slide here for purely illustrative purposes I’ve
for purely illustrative purposes I’ve
for purely illustrative purposes I’ve made up the data I’ll show you the real
made up the data I’ll show you the real
made up the data I’ll show you the real data shortly but I want to share with
data shortly but I want to share with
data shortly but I want to share with you my expectation if people working in
you my expectation if people working in
you my expectation if people working in an evolutionary paradigm are correct
an evolutionary paradigm are correct
an evolutionary paradigm are correct then we expect them to agree with one
then we expect them to agree with one
then we expect them to agree with one another and I’ve that here so in the
another and I’ve that here so in the
another and I’ve that here so in the first time been in the 1770s the 80s
first time been in the 1770s the 80s
first time been in the 1770s the 80s after the widespread evolution or the
after the widespread evolution or the
after the widespread evolution or the beginning of publication of Origin of
beginning of publication of Origin of
beginning of publication of Origin of Species at the time during which
Species at the time during which
Species at the time during which evolution became to be widely accepted
evolution became to be widely accepted
evolution became to be widely accepted in the natural among natural historians
in the natural among natural historians
in the natural among natural historians we might expect to see where we would
we might expect to see where we would
we might expect to see where we would expect to see that classifications agree
expect to see that classifications agree
expect to see that classifications agree with one another as shown here in that
with one another as shown here in that
with one another as shown here in that steep line in the graph you also
steep line in the graph you also
steep line in the graph you also remember I mentioned cladistics this
remember I mentioned cladistics this
remember I mentioned cladistics this principle of naming monophyletic groups
principle of naming monophyletic groups
principle of naming monophyletic groups that started to become popular in the
that started to become popular in the
that started to become popular in the 70s 80s and 90s so we might expect to
70s 80s and 90s so we might expect to
70s 80s and 90s so we might expect to see in that first bin in the 80s
see in that first bin in the 80s
see in that first bin in the 80s starting in the 80s the agreement also
starting in the 80s the agreement also
starting in the 80s the agreement also increased as I’ve shown on this graph so
increased as I’ve shown on this graph so
increased as I’ve shown on this graph so this is the expectation I had no idea
this is the expectation I had no idea
this is the expectation I had no idea what I was going to get when I started
what I was going to get when I started
what I was going to get when I started all this so let me begin to tell you
all this so let me begin to tell you
all this so let me begin to tell you what the actual data have to say here’s
what the actual data have to say here’s
what the actual data have to say here’s a picture of William King Gregory who
a picture of William King Gregory who
a picture of William King Gregory who really is the reason why I was able to
really is the reason why I was able to
really is the reason why I was able to collect any of these data he wrote what
collect any of these data he wrote what
collect any of these data he wrote what remains – today the most comprehensive
remains – today the most comprehensive
remains – today the most comprehensive summary of the history of mammalian
summary of the history of mammalian
summary of the history of mammalian classification in 1910 and I want to
classification in 1910 and I want to
classification in 1910 and I want to give due credit to him he had a
give due credit to him he had a
give due credit to him he had a classification of course and there it is
classification of course and there it is
classification of course and there it is he did a lot better than gottfrid’s
he did a lot better than gottfrid’s
he did a lot better than gottfrid’s store he got 23 correct groups out of a
store he got 23 correct groups out of a
store he got 23 correct groups out of a total possible of 56 so his ratio is
total possible of 56 so his ratio is
total possible of 56 so his ratio is 0.41
0.41
0.41 let me now tell you in this busy looking
let me now tell you in this busy looking
let me now tell you in this busy looking graph go through it I hope slowly enough
graph go through it I hope slowly enough
graph go through it I hope slowly enough actually that’s ridiculous you all know
actually that’s ridiculous you all know
actually that’s ridiculous you all know immediately what’s going on here so I
immediately what’s going on here so I
immediately what’s going on here so I could I can whip through this in no time
could I can whip through this in no time
could I can whip through this in no time and it’ll be very clear each one of
and it’ll be very clear each one of
and it’ll be very clear each one of those polygons each one of these circles
those polygons each one of these circles
those polygons each one of these circles triangles pluses and X’s represents an
triangles pluses and X’s represents an
triangles pluses and X’s represents an individual classification and on the
individual classification and on the
individual classification and on the x-axis I have the time when that
x-axis I have the time when that
x-axis I have the time when that classification was published right when
classification was published right when
classification was published right when some of the x axis is
some of the x axis is
some of the x axis is the scale is a bit changed because I
the scale is a bit changed because I
the scale is a bit changed because I want to include people like Al yeah he’s
want to include people like Al yeah he’s
want to include people like Al yeah he’s in the ninth century and Leviticus of
in the ninth century and Leviticus of
in the ninth century and Leviticus of course 500 BC give or take and then on
course 500 BC give or take and then on
course 500 BC give or take and then on the y axis I have the extent to which
the y axis I have the extent to which
the y axis I have the extent to which these individual classifications
these individual classifications
these individual classifications resemble the well corroborated tree
resemble the well corroborated tree
resemble the well corroborated tree there are a few things I want to point
there are a few things I want to point
there are a few things I want to point out here and remember that the higher
out here and remember that the higher
out here and remember that the higher you are on this axis the more your
you are on this axis the more your
you are on this axis the more your classification resembles the well
classification resembles the well
classification resembles the well corroborated tree a few things I want to
corroborated tree a few things I want to
corroborated tree a few things I want to point out first of all the accuracy is
point out first of all the accuracy is
point out first of all the accuracy is increasing over time you don’t have to
increasing over time you don’t have to
increasing over time you don’t have to look at anything else
look at anything else
look at anything else ignore the best-fit lines to these
ignore the best-fit lines to these
ignore the best-fit lines to these various causes of points I’ve put on
various causes of points I’ve put on
various causes of points I’ve put on there the accuracy is increasing over
there the accuracy is increasing over
there the accuracy is increasing over time and of course we’d expect that
time and of course we’d expect that
time and of course we’d expect that because natural ists are discovering
because natural ists are discovering
because natural ists are discovering more about the about the world you’re
more about the about the world you’re
more about the about the world you’re getting better optics better microscopes
getting better optics better microscopes
getting better optics better microscopes you’re getting electric light so you’d
you’re getting electric light so you’d
you’re getting electric light so you’d have to wait till a sunny day to put
have to wait till a sunny day to put
have to wait till a sunny day to put your microscope in the corner of your
your microscope in the corner of your
your microscope in the corner of your lab to actually use it so accuracy is
lab to actually use it so accuracy is
lab to actually use it so accuracy is going up over time another thing I want
going up over time another thing I want
going up over time another thing I want to point out are this these cloud of red
to point out are this these cloud of red
to point out are this these cloud of red points the best fit line to that cloud
points the best fit line to that cloud
points the best fit line to that cloud of red points is significantly better
of red points is significantly better
of red points is significantly better than the best fit line to the
than the best fit line to the
than the best fit line to the pre-revolutionary points and I should
pre-revolutionary points and I should
pre-revolutionary points and I should say of course that this red group
say of course that this red group
say of course that this red group represents authors who accept an
represents authors who accept an
represents authors who accept an evolutionary paradigm so it there are
evolutionary paradigm so it there are
evolutionary paradigm so it there are some exceptions there’s a particularly
some exceptions there’s a particularly
some exceptions there’s a particularly enlightened French naturalist by the
enlightened French naturalist by the
enlightened French naturalist by the name of De Blaine ville in the early
name of De Blaine ville in the early
name of De Blaine ville in the early 19th century who for a variety of
19th century who for a variety of
19th century who for a variety of reasons did extremely well but he’s head
reasons did extremely well but he’s head
reasons did extremely well but he’s head and shoulders above these other guys and
and shoulders above these other guys and
and shoulders above these other guys and he is quite similar to these
he is quite similar to these
he is quite similar to these evolutionary authors and then the last
evolutionary authors and then the last
evolutionary authors and then the last thing about this particular slide is to
thing about this particular slide is to
thing about this particular slide is to point out that the cladistic accuracy is
point out that the cladistic accuracy is
point out that the cladistic accuracy is not really that much higher than the non
not really that much higher than the non
not really that much higher than the non cladistic evolution and authors that
cladistic evolution and authors that
cladistic evolution and authors that preceded them but they do have a bit
preceded them but they do have a bit
preceded them but they do have a bit slightly more steep slope so we can look
slightly more steep slope so we can look
slightly more steep slope so we can look at these data in another way ignoring
at these data in another way ignoring
at these data in another way ignoring time on the x-axis and just using our
time on the x-axis and just using our
time on the x-axis and just using our different categories and they’re just a
different categories and they’re just a
different categories and they’re just a couple that I want to point out here
couple that I want to point out here
couple that I want to point out here well these three really the pre
well these three really the pre
well these three really the pre evolutionary classifiers and and the
evolutionary classifiers and and the
evolutionary classifiers and and the range is so high here because of this
range is so high here because of this
range is so high here because of this Frenchman – Blaine Ville but what I want
Frenchman – Blaine Ville but what I want
Frenchman – Blaine Ville but what I want to stress is that the evolutionary the
to stress is that the evolutionary the
to stress is that the evolutionary the non cladistic evolutionary authors are
non cladistic evolutionary authors are
non cladistic evolutionary authors are significantly more accurate
significantly more accurate
significantly more accurate the pre evolutionary authors the
the pre evolutionary authors the
the pre evolutionary authors the cladistic authors operating in an
cladistic authors operating in an
cladistic authors operating in an evolutionary paradigm but applying this
evolutionary paradigm but applying this
evolutionary paradigm but applying this extra criterion of naming monophyletic
extra criterion of naming monophyletic
extra criterion of naming monophyletic groups are slightly higher but not
groups are slightly higher but not
groups are slightly higher but not really significantly higher than the
really significantly higher than the
really significantly higher than the evolutionary authors so again this is
evolutionary authors so again this is
evolutionary authors so again this is what you’d expect if evolution really
what you’d expect if evolution really
what you’d expect if evolution really happened and then finally I told you
happened and then finally I told you
happened and then finally I told you about this slide with the previous
about this slide with the previous
about this slide with the previous version of this I just made up the data
version of this I just made up the data
version of this I just made up the data here are the real data I haven’t made
here are the real data I haven’t made
here are the real data I haven’t made these up so we have inter author
these up so we have inter author
these up so we have inter author agreement represented on the y-axis so
agreement represented on the y-axis so
agreement represented on the y-axis so the higher that number the more
the higher that number the more
the higher that number the more different classifiers are agreeing with
different classifiers are agreeing with
different classifiers are agreeing with one another and the proposition that I
one another and the proposition that I
one another and the proposition that I suggested a moment ago was that if
suggested a moment ago was that if
suggested a moment ago was that if evolution really happened you would
evolution really happened you would
evolution really happened you would expect authors publishing in an
expect authors publishing in an
expect authors publishing in an evolutionary paradigm to agree with one
evolutionary paradigm to agree with one
evolutionary paradigm to agree with one another more than authors who are not
another more than authors who are not
another more than authors who are not and indeed that is exactly what you see
and indeed that is exactly what you see
and indeed that is exactly what you see in that first time been from the 1860s
in that first time been from the 1860s
in that first time been from the 1860s through the 1880s the agreement shoots
through the 1880s the agreement shoots
through the 1880s the agreement shoots right up relative to what had come
right up relative to what had come
right up relative to what had come before it interestingly however the
before it interestingly however the
before it interestingly however the authors who are operating in a cladistic
authors who are operating in a cladistic
authors who are operating in a cladistic paradigm naming monophyletic groups that
paradigm naming monophyletic groups that
paradigm naming monophyletic groups that first time Ben and a half right around
first time Ben and a half right around
first time Ben and a half right around there doesn’t really increase very much
there doesn’t really increase very much
there doesn’t really increase very much at all and in fact you get this time Ben
at all and in fact you get this time Ben
at all and in fact you get this time Ben in the 90s and early 2000s in which
in the 90s and early 2000s in which
in the 90s and early 2000s in which interent actually goes down and there
interent actually goes down and there
interent actually goes down and there are a number of reasons for that that
are a number of reasons for that that
are a number of reasons for that that exceed the scope of my talk so perhaps
exceed the scope of my talk so perhaps
exceed the scope of my talk so perhaps some of you can ask me about that later
some of you can ask me about that later
some of you can ask me about that later and what I shall do instead is bring all
and what I shall do instead is bring all
and what I shall do instead is bring all this to a close and summarize what I’ve
this to a close and summarize what I’ve
this to a close and summarize what I’ve just told you first of all evolutionary
just told you first of all evolutionary
just told you first of all evolutionary authors proposed significantly more
authors proposed significantly more
authors proposed significantly more accurate classifications than non
accurate classifications than non
accurate classifications than non evolutionary authors and this is indeed
evolutionary authors and this is indeed
evolutionary authors and this is indeed what you would expect if evolution
what you would expect if evolution
what you would expect if evolution really happened
really happened
really happened secondly the application of cladistic
secondly the application of cladistic
secondly the application of cladistic names naming groups of animals that
names naming groups of animals that
names naming groups of animals that include all the descendants of a single
include all the descendants of a single
include all the descendants of a single common ancestor slightly but not
common ancestor slightly but not
common ancestor slightly but not significantly increased accuracy and
significantly increased accuracy and
significantly increased accuracy and then finally evolutionary authors
then finally evolutionary authors
then finally evolutionary authors proposed classifications that agreed
proposed classifications that agreed
proposed classifications that agreed with one another more so than non
with one another more so than non
with one another more so than non evolutionary authors and again this is
evolutionary authors and again this is
evolutionary authors and again this is what you’d expect if this extraordinary
what you’d expect if this extraordinary
what you’d expect if this extraordinary proposition that the connections we
proposition that the connections we
proposition that the connections we share as individual humans in a family
share as individual humans in a family
share as individual humans in a family extends out through geological time and
extends out through geological time and
extends out through geological time and so that we actually share biological
so that we actually share biological
so that we actually share biological connections with other species I think
connections with other species I think
connections with other species I think we do you will reach our own conclusion
we do you will reach our own conclusion
we do you will reach our own conclusion about that and the substance of this
about that and the substance of this
about that and the substance of this talk is in a recently published book
talk is in a recently published book
talk is in a recently published book chapter you can see that on my website
chapter you can see that on my website
chapter you can see that on my website and I will then thank you all very much
and I will then thank you all very much
and I will then thank you all very much for your very kind attention
for your very kind attention
for your very kind attention [Applause]
”
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