imagine stepping on a flight for your holiday across the Atlantic and finding
holiday across the Atlantic and finding
holiday across the Atlantic and finding out that your pilot has no access to
out that your pilot has no access to
out that your pilot has no access to live weather data to warn him or her
live weather data to warn him or her
live weather data to warn him or her about potential storms in your path
about potential storms in your path
about potential storms in your path would you be comfortable stepping on
would you be comfortable stepping on
would you be comfortable stepping on that plane or imagine investing some of
that plane or imagine investing some of
that plane or imagine investing some of your money buying stocks but she only
your money buying stocks but she only
your money buying stocks but she only had access to last month’s financial
had access to last month’s financial
had access to last month’s financial data would you be confident in your
data would you be confident in your
data would you be confident in your financial decisions now it’s hard to
financial decisions now it’s hard to
financial decisions now it’s hard to imagine making these decisions without
imagine making these decisions without
imagine making these decisions without live a reliable data and I’m sure none
live a reliable data and I’m sure none
live a reliable data and I’m sure none of us ever want to be in these kinds of
of us ever want to be in these kinds of
of us ever want to be in these kinds of situations but I hate to break the news
situations but I hate to break the news
situations but I hate to break the news to you we’re all on that plane right now
to you we’re all on that plane right now
to you we’re all on that plane right now not knowing what’s ahead of us and we’re
not knowing what’s ahead of us and we’re
not knowing what’s ahead of us and we’re all making these important decisions
all making these important decisions
all making these important decisions with obsolete data what I’m talking
with obsolete data what I’m talking
with obsolete data what I’m talking about are polls polls promise to be a
about are polls polls promise to be a
about are polls polls promise to be a reflection of what we think but the
reflection of what we think but the
reflection of what we think but the industry has and has been repeatedly
industry has and has been repeatedly
industry has and has been repeatedly failing to deliver the Scottish
failing to deliver the Scottish
failing to deliver the Scottish referendum UK general election
referendum UK general election
referendum UK general election Poland’s election Israel’s election the
Poland’s election Israel’s election the
Poland’s election Israel’s election the brexit referendum and recently Donald
brexit referendum and recently Donald
brexit referendum and recently Donald Trump winning the White House time and
Trump winning the White House time and
Trump winning the White House time and time again we’re all being let down by
time again we’re all being let down by
time again we’re all being let down by inaccurate information
inaccurate information
inaccurate information but why should we care about polls and
but why should we care about polls and
but why should we care about polls and their failures while polling is a
their failures while polling is a
their failures while polling is a scientific tool used to help us stay
scientific tool used to help us stay
scientific tool used to help us stay connected with public opinion and when
connected with public opinion and when
connected with public opinion and when they failed to deliver as they have done
they failed to deliver as they have done
they failed to deliver as they have done in the past few years the consequences
in the past few years the consequences
in the past few years the consequences are disastrous and disastrous not
are disastrous and disastrous not
are disastrous and disastrous not because of which side wins the election
because of which side wins the election
because of which side wins the election or which side wins the argument
or which side wins the argument
or which side wins the argument disastrous because that uncertainty
disastrous because that uncertainty
disastrous because that uncertainty creates societal stress and instability
now everyone knows that polls are
now everyone knows that polls are failing to work in less than 24 hours
failing to work in less than 24 hours
failing to work in less than 24 hours after the UK’s last election day the
after the UK’s last election day the
after the UK’s last election day the founder of Yuga of Stephen Shakespeare
founder of Yuga of Stephen Shakespeare
founder of Yuga of Stephen Shakespeare tweeted a terrible night for us
tweeted a terrible night for us
tweeted a terrible night for us pollsters I apologize for poor
pollsters I apologize for poor
pollsters I apologize for poor performance we need to find out why but
performance we need to find out why but
performance we need to find out why but not much has been done to figure out why
not much has been done to figure out why
not much has been done to figure out why and so far the search has been in the
and so far the search has been in the
and so far the search has been in the wrong place
wrong place
wrong place and it’s all turned into a blaming
and it’s all turned into a blaming
and it’s all turned into a blaming situation the social media gets blamed
situation the social media gets blamed
situation the social media gets blamed for decreasing engagement for pollsters
for decreasing engagement for pollsters
for decreasing engagement for pollsters older generations get blamed for not
older generations get blamed for not
older generations get blamed for not adapting to new tech
adapting to new tech
adapting to new tech oh geez younger generations get blamed
oh geez younger generations get blamed
oh geez younger generations get blamed for being disengaged with societal
for being disengaged with societal
for being disengaged with societal issues shy voters get blamed undecided
issues shy voters get blamed undecided
issues shy voters get blamed undecided voters get blamed but what I realize in
voters get blamed but what I realize in
voters get blamed but what I realize in the middle of this blame game is that we
the middle of this blame game is that we
the middle of this blame game is that we forgot something more fundamental to the
forgot something more fundamental to the
forgot something more fundamental to the whole process something simple but with
whole process something simple but with
whole process something simple but with huge implications and something unique
huge implications and something unique
huge implications and something unique to our time that we’ve gradually evolved
to our time that we’ve gradually evolved
to our time that we’ve gradually evolved into the polls assume that our views are
into the polls assume that our views are
into the polls assume that our views are set in stone but here’s the secret our
set in stone but here’s the secret our
set in stone but here’s the secret our views are not set in stone our views can
views are not set in stone our views can
views are not set in stone our views can change and I’ve usually change not
change and I’ve usually change not
change and I’ve usually change not always abruptly what I’ve used may
always abruptly what I’ve used may
always abruptly what I’ve used may change as we know a little bit more now
change as we know a little bit more now
change as we know a little bit more now I want to share with you a classic
I want to share with you a classic
I want to share with you a classic ethics problem known as the trolley
ethics problem known as the trolley
ethics problem known as the trolley dilemma which I’m sure many of you have
dilemma which I’m sure many of you have
dilemma which I’m sure many of you have heard but I want to repurpose it here
heard but I want to repurpose it here
heard but I want to repurpose it here and for you to be aware of each decision
and for you to be aware of each decision
and for you to be aware of each decision you make as you know a little bit more
you make as you know a little bit more
you make as you know a little bit more now imagine you the driver of a trolley
now imagine you the driver of a trolley
now imagine you the driver of a trolley a tram hurtling down a track and you
a tram hurtling down a track and you
a tram hurtling down a track and you have no brakes now straight down the
have no brakes now straight down the
have no brakes now straight down the track you see standing five people now
track you see standing five people now
track you see standing five people now as you get closer you see it as a fork
as you get closer you see it as a fork
as you get closer you see it as a fork in the path and on the left-hand side is
in the path and on the left-hand side is
in the path and on the left-hand side is a track that leads to only one person so
a track that leads to only one person so
a track that leads to only one person so if you end up continuing straight you
if you end up continuing straight you
if you end up continuing straight you end up killing five but if you turn
end up killing five but if you turn
end up killing five but if you turn laughs you only kill one so what do you
laughs you only kill one so what do you
laughs you only kill one so what do you do and many of you will say you’ll turn
do and many of you will say you’ll turn
do and many of you will say you’ll turn left and maybe some of you will continue
left and maybe some of you will continue
left and maybe some of you will continue straight now what if as you got a little
straight now what if as you got a little
straight now what if as you got a little bit closer you saw that the one on the
bit closer you saw that the one on the
bit closer you saw that the one on the left is really just a child what would
left is really just a child what would
left is really just a child what would you do now maybe some of you might
you do now maybe some of you might
you do now maybe some of you might change your mind or what if I told you
change your mind or what if I told you
change your mind or what if I told you that one on the left that child is
that one on the left that child is
that one on the left that child is actually terminally ill what would you
actually terminally ill what would you
actually terminally ill what would you do now it’s complicated isn’t it now our
do now it’s complicated isn’t it now our
do now it’s complicated isn’t it now our views only make sense with the context
views only make sense with the context
views only make sense with the context around them and as the context changes
around them and as the context changes
around them and as the context changes our views may change with it
now I know this is a hypothetical
now I know this is a hypothetical situation an everyday life we’re not
situation an everyday life we’re not
situation an everyday life we’re not asked to give our views about ethical
asked to give our views about ethical
asked to give our views about ethical questions so let’s go with a real-life
questions so let’s go with a real-life
questions so let’s go with a real-life example your car rental business owner
example your car rental business owner
example your car rental business owner near an airport let’s say Heathrow and
near an airport let’s say Heathrow and
near an airport let’s say Heathrow and you were told that if a Heathrow
you were told that if a Heathrow
you were told that if a Heathrow expansion bill passed you would have to
expansion bill passed you would have to
expansion bill passed you would have to relocate your entire business obviously
relocate your entire business obviously
relocate your entire business obviously you’re not happy to hear about this but
you’re not happy to hear about this but
you’re not happy to hear about this but today when the council opened up the
today when the council opened up the
today when the council opened up the plans for public viewing you realize
plans for public viewing you realize
plans for public viewing you realize that not only do you not have to move
that not only do you not have to move
that not only do you not have to move your business but you’ll end up in a
your business but you’ll end up in a
your business but you’ll end up in a prime location when the construction is
prime location when the construction is
prime location when the construction is over our views can change as we know a
over our views can change as we know a
over our views can change as we know a bit more the same scenario is brexit he
bit more the same scenario is brexit he
bit more the same scenario is brexit he may voted to leave when you’re more sure
may voted to leave when you’re more sure
may voted to leave when you’re more sure about the world’s existing order but
about the world’s existing order but
about the world’s existing order but many now argue if the world is still in
many now argue if the world is still in
many now argue if the world is still in the same order as it was was president
the same order as it was was president
the same order as it was was president Trump questioning NATO and its role in
Scotland you may have voted to remain in
Scotland you may have voted to remain in the UK when the UK was still part of the
the UK when the UK was still part of the
the UK when the UK was still part of the European Union with the UK leaving the
European Union with the UK leaving the
European Union with the UK leaving the EU many now say there should be another
EU many now say there should be another
EU many now say there should be another referendum now some politicians say it’s
referendum now some politicians say it’s
referendum now some politicians say it’s your right to be able to change your
your right to be able to change your
your right to be able to change your mind and other politicians say it’s an
mind and other politicians say it’s an
mind and other politicians say it’s an insult to your intelligence if you ask
insult to your intelligence if you ask
insult to your intelligence if you ask to change your mind now whatever the
to change your mind now whatever the
to change your mind now whatever the case it’s up to the politicians to
case it’s up to the politicians to
case it’s up to the politicians to decide the solutions to their problems
decide the solutions to their problems
decide the solutions to their problems we’re here to talk about public opinion
we’re here to talk about public opinion
we’re here to talk about public opinion now of course whether it is right or an
now of course whether it is right or an
now of course whether it is right or an insult I say a different thing I say
insult I say a different thing I say
insult I say a different thing I say it’s natural to change our minds and in
it’s natural to change our minds and in
it’s natural to change our minds and in reality we do it all the time it’s in
reality we do it all the time it’s in
reality we do it all the time it’s in our nature to physically adapt to new
our nature to physically adapt to new
our nature to physically adapt to new environments and mentally adapt to new
environments and mentally adapt to new
environments and mentally adapt to new information and as Darwin said it’s not
information and as Darwin said it’s not
information and as Darwin said it’s not the strongest of the species that
the strongest of the species that
the strongest of the species that survives nor the most intelligent that
survives nor the most intelligent that
survives nor the most intelligent that survives is the one that’s most
survives is the one that’s most
survives is the one that’s most adaptable to change
so you might be thinking if we’re always
so you might be thinking if we’re always changing our minds how can we reliably
changing our minds how can we reliably
changing our minds how can we reliably measure public opinion how can we ever
measure public opinion how can we ever
measure public opinion how can we ever make any sense of it all and you’re
make any sense of it all and you’re
make any sense of it all and you’re right it’s a different situation now but
right it’s a different situation now but
right it’s a different situation now but public opinion is not the only
public opinion is not the only
public opinion is not the only phenomenon with a dynamic nature in 1885
phenomenon with a dynamic nature in 1885
phenomenon with a dynamic nature in 1885 king oscar ii of sweden and norway
king oscar ii of sweden and norway
king oscar ii of sweden and norway decided
decided
decided celebrate his sixtieth birthday by
celebrate his sixtieth birthday by
celebrate his sixtieth birthday by offering a prize to the following
offering a prize to the following
offering a prize to the following mathematical challenge can we establish
mathematical challenge can we establish
mathematical challenge can we establish that our solar system will continue to
that our solar system will continue to
that our solar system will continue to work like clockwork or at some point in
work like clockwork or at some point in
work like clockwork or at some point in the future will the earth just spiral
the future will the earth just spiral
the future will the earth just spiral off into space and disappear from our
off into space and disappear from our
off into space and disappear from our solar system how to simplify things on
solar system how to simplify things on
solar system how to simplify things on Reap on Kure a French mathematician
Reap on Kure a French mathematician
Reap on Kure a French mathematician began his work by considering a solar
began his work by considering a solar
began his work by considering a solar system with only two objects this system
system with only two objects this system
system with only two objects this system and the orbits were shown to be stable
but the trouble started when the third
but the trouble started when the third object was introduced now by working
object was introduced now by working
object was introduced now by working through this problem
through this problem
through this problem not only did punker a win the prize his
not only did punker a win the prize his
not only did punker a win the prize his three-body paper and subsequent papers
three-body paper and subsequent papers
three-body paper and subsequent papers laid the foundation for what we now know
laid the foundation for what we now know
laid the foundation for what we now know as chaos theory and chaos theory not
as chaos theory and chaos theory not
as chaos theory and chaos theory not meaning randomness but chaos theory
meaning randomness but chaos theory
meaning randomness but chaos theory meaning that a change a small change in
meaning that a change a small change in
meaning that a change a small change in the initial parameters of an experiment
the initial parameters of an experiment
the initial parameters of an experiment does not necessarily result in a small
does not necessarily result in a small
does not necessarily result in a small change at the end of the experiment in a
change at the end of the experiment in a
change at the end of the experiment in a dynamic system but like many
dynamic system but like many
dynamic system but like many mathematical theories it was shells for
mathematical theories it was shells for
mathematical theories it was shells for many years until in the 1960s
many years until in the 1960s
many years until in the 1960s LeBron’s and meteorologists at MIT
LeBron’s and meteorologists at MIT
LeBron’s and meteorologists at MIT accidentally observed chaos theory and
accidentally observed chaos theory and
accidentally observed chaos theory and one of his experiments he was running
one of his experiments he was running
one of his experiments he was running multiple simulations of a model to
multiple simulations of a model to
multiple simulations of a model to predict weather forecasts and when he
predict weather forecasts and when he
predict weather forecasts and when he changed one initial parameter ever so
changed one initial parameter ever so
changed one initial parameter ever so slightly that slight change create a
slightly that slight change create a
slightly that slight change create a completely unexpected result an outcome
completely unexpected result an outcome
completely unexpected result an outcome of his forecast now he later published a
of his forecast now he later published a
of his forecast now he later published a paper on his observation that we now
paper on his observation that we now
paper on his observation that we now commonly know as the butterfly effect
commonly know as the butterfly effect
commonly know as the butterfly effect does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in
does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in
does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas so
Brazil set off a tornado in Texas so
Brazil set off a tornado in Texas so let’s think about it if a stable
let’s think about it if a stable
let’s think about it if a stable two-body system became vulnerable to
two-body system became vulnerable to
two-body system became vulnerable to small changes as soon as that third body
small changes as soon as that third body
small changes as soon as that third body was introduced what makes us think a
was introduced what makes us think a
was introduced what makes us think a virtual space for the minds of millions
virtual space for the minds of millions
virtual space for the minds of millions are continuously interacting is not
are continuously interacting is not
are continuously interacting is not vulnerable to these small changes the
vulnerable to these small changes the
vulnerable to these small changes the seven billion of us was seven billion
seven billion of us was seven billion
seven billion of us was seven billion views views that may change as we know a
views views that may change as we know a
views views that may change as we know a little bit more or views that may change
little bit more or views that may change
little bit more or views that may change as we have a little bit doubt
as we have a little bit doubt
as we have a little bit doubt or views that may change as we have a
or views that may change as we have a
or views that may change as we have a little hope depending on our day and
little hope depending on our day and
little hope depending on our day and these small changes are the flaps of the
these small changes are the flaps of the
these small changes are the flaps of the butterfly’s wings a compact system of
butterfly’s wings a compact system of
butterfly’s wings a compact system of public opinion mathematically speaking
public opinion mathematically speaking
public opinion mathematically speaking where each view can affect millions of
where each view can affect millions of
where each view can affect millions of others in a split second these changes
others in a split second these changes
others in a split second these changes cannot be ignored so as you see the
cannot be ignored so as you see the
cannot be ignored so as you see the problem is not the pole itself it’s a
problem is not the pole itself it’s a
problem is not the pole itself it’s a condition in which we apply them because
condition in which we apply them because
condition in which we apply them because we’re dealing with a dynamic system the
we’re dealing with a dynamic system the
we’re dealing with a dynamic system the pole is only good for that one moment
pole is only good for that one moment
pole is only good for that one moment because the next moment something else
because the next moment something else
because the next moment something else is going on and by the time the results
is going on and by the time the results
is going on and by the time the results are published there are dated you want
are published there are dated you want
are published there are dated you want your data to be as close as possible to
your data to be as close as possible to
your data to be as close as possible to the present you wouldn’t look at last
the present you wouldn’t look at last
the present you wouldn’t look at last month’s weather to figure out how to
month’s weather to figure out how to
month’s weather to figure out how to morrow would be so what are the experts
morrow would be so what are the experts
morrow would be so what are the experts doing to catch up with this
doing to catch up with this
doing to catch up with this ever-changing entity well many experts
ever-changing entity well many experts
ever-changing entity well many experts now are taking polls more frequently but
now are taking polls more frequently but
now are taking polls more frequently but taking more polls doesn’t work millions
taking more polls doesn’t work millions
taking more polls doesn’t work millions of pounds are being spent on series of
of pounds are being spent on series of
of pounds are being spent on series of polls to measure public opinion this way
polls to measure public opinion this way
polls to measure public opinion this way but like disjointed wings unable to fly
but like disjointed wings unable to fly
but like disjointed wings unable to fly these studies produce unrelated
these studies produce unrelated
these studies produce unrelated snapshots even when collecting data on
snapshots even when collecting data on
snapshots even when collecting data on the same subjects at the same time so
the same subjects at the same time so
the same subjects at the same time so what are the tools that we have them
what are the tools that we have them
what are the tools that we have them millions now prefer using social media
millions now prefer using social media
millions now prefer using social media the great bottom-up platform for
the great bottom-up platform for
the great bottom-up platform for exchanging views without waiting for
exchanging views without waiting for
exchanging views without waiting for anyone’s permission but in social media
anyone’s permission but in social media
anyone’s permission but in social media you can end up in ongoing discussions
you can end up in ongoing discussions
you can end up in ongoing discussions and analyst debates without ever knowing
and analyst debates without ever knowing
and analyst debates without ever knowing the numbers on either side Donald
the numbers on either side Donald
the numbers on either side Donald Trump’s executive order on immigration
Trump’s executive order on immigration
Trump’s executive order on immigration is now one of the most discussed topics
is now one of the most discussed topics
is now one of the most discussed topics in social media he’s tweeting his
in social media he’s tweeting his
in social media he’s tweeting his followers are cheering and his opponents
followers are cheering and his opponents
followers are cheering and his opponents are arguing but when it comes down to it
are arguing but when it comes down to it
are arguing but when it comes down to it to show your numbers on either side you
to show your numbers on either side you
to show your numbers on either side you still have to pour on the streets and
still have to pour on the streets and
still have to pour on the streets and millions still have to sign petitions so
millions still have to sign petitions so
millions still have to sign petitions so how do we know what people think before
how do we know what people think before
how do we know what people think before we reach these breaking points our
we reach these breaking points our
we reach these breaking points our democratic society doesn’t have a tool
democratic society doesn’t have a tool
democratic society doesn’t have a tool for public opinion as a reference point
for public opinion as a reference point
for public opinion as a reference point public opinion becomes the interests of
public opinion becomes the interests of
public opinion becomes the interests of this or that party every
this or that party every
this or that party every four or five years but the reality is we
four or five years but the reality is we
four or five years but the reality is we don’t stop having views when polls –
don’t stop having views when polls –
don’t stop having views when polls – stop asking questions four or five years
stop asking questions four or five years
stop asking questions four or five years is too long to wait for pulses to ask us
is too long to wait for pulses to ask us
is too long to wait for pulses to ask us again it’s only been six weeks after the
again it’s only been six weeks after the
again it’s only been six weeks after the inauguration of a president and a
inauguration of a president and a
inauguration of a president and a democratic election in America and
democratic election in America and
democratic election in America and already thousands are on the streets and
already thousands are on the streets and
already thousands are on the streets and millions are petitioning four or five
millions are petitioning four or five
millions are petitioning four or five years is too long to wait to be asked
years is too long to wait to be asked
years is too long to wait to be asked again we need a new tool built from a
again we need a new tool built from a
again we need a new tool built from a new vision that same vision that
new vision that same vision that
new vision that same vision that revolutionized top-down elite media with
revolutionized top-down elite media with
revolutionized top-down elite media with bottom-up platforms like YouTube that
bottom-up platforms like YouTube that
bottom-up platforms like YouTube that same vision that revolutionized so many
same vision that revolutionized so many
same vision that revolutionized so many of our industries by sharing our cars
of our industries by sharing our cars
of our industries by sharing our cars and uber or sharing our homes on Airbnb
and uber or sharing our homes on Airbnb
and uber or sharing our homes on Airbnb that same vision for creating Wikipedia
that same vision for creating Wikipedia
that same vision for creating Wikipedia by putting together the things that we
by putting together the things that we
by putting together the things that we all know and this vision is not just my
all know and this vision is not just my
all know and this vision is not just my vision it’s our vision but from our new
vision it’s our vision but from our new
vision it’s our vision but from our new values those values where we don’t
values those values where we don’t
values those values where we don’t always have to wait for experts to fix
always have to wait for experts to fix
always have to wait for experts to fix things and those values where we can
things and those values where we can
things and those values where we can make better things by simply
make better things by simply
make better things by simply collaborating and we do this because
collaborating and we do this because
collaborating and we do this because this is who we are and we’re doing it
this is who we are and we’re doing it
this is who we are and we’re doing it again we’re creating a platform for live
again we’re creating a platform for live
again we’re creating a platform for live public views for everyone not just
public views for everyone not just
public views for everyone not just special interest groups where these
special interest groups where these
special interest groups where these butterflies’ can flap their wings where
butterflies’ can flap their wings where
butterflies’ can flap their wings where you can say your views as you go where
you can say your views as you go where
you can say your views as you go where you can change them as you wish and so
you can change them as you wish and so
you can change them as you wish and so we stand at a crossroads now and we have
we stand at a crossroads now and we have
we stand at a crossroads now and we have a choice we can continue to ignore the
a choice we can continue to ignore the
a choice we can continue to ignore the problem sit around in total darkness and
problem sit around in total darkness and
problem sit around in total darkness and wave the pulses to show up once in a
wave the pulses to show up once in a
wave the pulses to show up once in a while and take snapshots of us with
while and take snapshots of us with
while and take snapshots of us with their cameras to tell us who we are and
their cameras to tell us who we are and
their cameras to tell us who we are and what we want or we can finally take that
what we want or we can finally take that
what we want or we can finally take that camera turn it around and take the
camera turn it around and take the
camera turn it around and take the biggest selfie ever thank you
biggest selfie ever thank you
biggest selfie ever thank you you
”
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