when I was preparing my slides my first slide looked like this and I thought
slide looked like this and I thought
slide looked like this and I thought well that’s the good news right away so
well that’s the good news right away so
well that’s the good news right away so let’s just get that out of the way well
let’s just get that out of the way well
let’s just get that out of the way well that didn’t exactly happen as we know
that didn’t exactly happen as we know
that didn’t exactly happen as we know and I was shocked I mean I was shocked
and I was shocked I mean I was shocked
and I was shocked I mean I was shocked about the course American politics is
about the course American politics is
about the course American politics is taking by what is also shocked because I
taking by what is also shocked because I
taking by what is also shocked because I am doing election forecasting and
am doing election forecasting and
am doing election forecasting and together with three American colleagues
together with three American colleagues
together with three American colleagues we are running this website called the
we are running this website called the
we are running this website called the Polly vote where we are predicting the
Polly vote where we are predicting the
Polly vote where we are predicting the outcome of this election and we expected
outcome of this election and we expected
outcome of this election and we expected that Hillary Clinton would win the
that Hillary Clinton would win the
that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote which she ended up winning
popular vote which she ended up winning
popular vote which she ended up winning and we were within the margin of error
and we were within the margin of error
and we were within the margin of error but who cares right we predicted her to
but who cares right we predicted her to
but who cares right we predicted her to also win the electoral college and
also win the electoral college and
also win the electoral college and that’s how Americans decide who the
that’s how Americans decide who the
that’s how Americans decide who the president is and there was actually a
president is and there was actually a
president is and there was actually a very well humbling experience and it was
very well humbling experience and it was
very well humbling experience and it was a big mistake but we weren’t the only
a big mistake but we weren’t the only
a big mistake but we weren’t the only ones pretty much everyone who was doing
ones pretty much everyone who was doing
ones pretty much everyone who was doing electoral college predictions got it
electoral college predictions got it
electoral college predictions got it wrong now to be fair somewhere a little
wrong now to be fair somewhere a little
wrong now to be fair somewhere a little bit more conservative from Clinton’s
bit more conservative from Clinton’s
bit more conservative from Clinton’s chances than others but the consensus
chances than others but the consensus
chances than others but the consensus really was that she is going to win this
really was that she is going to win this
really was that she is going to win this and even people in the Trump campaign
and even people in the Trump campaign
and even people in the Trump campaign didn’t have a clue that they really have
didn’t have a clue that they really have
didn’t have a clue that they really have a chance of this so the question really
a chance of this so the question really
a chance of this so the question really is what went wrong with the predictions
is what went wrong with the predictions
is what went wrong with the predictions now many people now blame the polls but
now many people now blame the polls but
now many people now blame the polls but actually if you look at the national
actually if you look at the national
actually if you look at the national polls for example they were pretty good
polls for example they were pretty good
polls for example they were pretty good the error was actually lower than it was
the error was actually lower than it was
the error was actually lower than it was in 2012 but nobody paid attention
in 2012 but nobody paid attention
in 2012 but nobody paid attention because it didn’t matter the problem
because it didn’t matter the problem
because it didn’t matter the problem this year was that we had large error in
this year was that we had large error in
this year was that we had large error in some states that ended up being decisive
some states that ended up being decisive
some states that ended up being decisive for the outcome of this election
for the outcome of this election
for the outcome of this election particular Pennsylvania Wisconsin and
particular Pennsylvania Wisconsin and
particular Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Michigan now to be honest it’s still too
Michigan now to be honest it’s still too
Michigan now to be honest it’s still too early to say what exactly went wrong we
early to say what exactly went wrong we
early to say what exactly went wrong we know that polls doing polls is difficult
know that polls doing polls is difficult
know that polls doing polls is difficult it’s harder and harder to reach people
it’s harder and harder to reach people
it’s harder and harder to reach people it’s harder and harder to get people to
it’s harder and harder to get people to
it’s harder and harder to get people to respond to polls in the first place and
respond to polls in the first place and
respond to polls in the first place and you really have a problem if certain
you really have a problem if certain
you really have a problem if certain demographic groups that tend maybe
demographic groups that tend maybe
demographic groups that tend maybe towards a certain candidate don’t
towards a certain candidate don’t
towards a certain candidate don’t respond to polls at all now it looks
respond to polls at all now it looks
respond to polls at all now it looks like this is what kind of happened it’s
like this is what kind of happened it’s
like this is what kind of happened it’s when you don’t have a representative
when you don’t have a representative
when you don’t have a representative it’s really hard to model the electorate
it’s really hard to model the electorate
it’s really hard to model the electorate and what we think what happened is that
and what we think what happened is that
and what we think what happened is that the pollsters underestimated the turnout
the pollsters underestimated the turnout
the pollsters underestimated the turnout for Trump from white voters with other
for Trump from white voters with other
for Trump from white voters with other college education and on the other hand
college education and on the other hand
college education and on the other hand over a stood Clinton support among
over a stood Clinton support among
over a stood Clinton support among different demographic groups and there
different demographic groups and there
different demographic groups and there was also big uncertainty about the share
was also big uncertainty about the share
was also big uncertainty about the share of undecided voters who appear to have
of undecided voters who appear to have
of undecided voters who appear to have broken towards Donald Trump very late in
broken towards Donald Trump very late in
broken towards Donald Trump very late in the campaign but it wasn’t just the
the campaign but it wasn’t just the
the campaign but it wasn’t just the polls and I think we can learn a lot by
polls and I think we can learn a lot by
polls and I think we can learn a lot by looking at other forecasts and how they
looking at other forecasts and how they
looking at other forecasts and how they failed to learn about what we didn’t
failed to learn about what we didn’t
failed to learn about what we didn’t understand about this election so I’ve
understand about this election so I’ve
understand about this election so I’ve been involved in election forecasting
been involved in election forecasting
been involved in election forecasting for almost eight years now I was a
for almost eight years now I was a
for almost eight years now I was a visiting scholar at the University of
visiting scholar at the University of
visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania where Weber Scott Armstrong
Pennsylvania where Weber Scott Armstrong
Pennsylvania where Weber Scott Armstrong who is one of the leading force
who is one of the leading force
who is one of the leading force researchers in in forecasting and he got
researchers in in forecasting and he got
researchers in in forecasting and he got me involved in the Pali Road project and
me involved in the Pali Road project and
me involved in the Pali Road project and the idea of this project was to use
the idea of this project was to use
the idea of this project was to use findings from forecasting research and
findings from forecasting research and
findings from forecasting research and applied them to election forecasting and
applied them to election forecasting and
applied them to election forecasting and demonstrate that they work because what
demonstrate that they work because what
demonstrate that they work because what we do you can use it for other problems
we do you can use it for other problems
we do you can use it for other problems as well so one major finding in
as well so one major finding in
as well so one major finding in forecasting research over the last 50
forecasting research over the last 50
forecasting research over the last 50 years is actually to not put too much
years is actually to not put too much
years is actually to not put too much faith in any single forecasts instead
faith in any single forecasts instead
faith in any single forecasts instead what you should do is you should combine
what you should do is you should combine
what you should do is you should combine forecasts from many different sources
forecasts from many different sources
forecasts from many different sources different methods that use different
different methods that use different
different methods that use different information and that is the principle
information and that is the principle
information and that is the principle that we rely upon in the Pali vote now
that we rely upon in the Pali vote now
that we rely upon in the Pali vote now how can we predict elections probably
how can we predict elections probably
how can we predict elections probably most of you now think well election
most of you now think well election
most of you now think well election forecasting that’sthat’s polling right
forecasting that’sthat’s polling right
forecasting that’sthat’s polling right and by the way we are not pollsters
and by the way we are not pollsters
and by the way we are not pollsters there’s many more methods some of which
there’s many more methods some of which
there’s many more methods some of which are older than polling so before the
are older than polling so before the
are older than polling so before the days of polling people would rely on
days of polling people would rely on
days of polling people would rely on other people’s expectations and that’s
other people’s expectations and that’s
other people’s expectations and that’s what we do as well so we reach out to
what we do as well so we reach out to
what we do as well so we reach out to experts and ask them it’s political
experts and ask them it’s political
experts and ask them it’s political scientists across the country and we ask
scientists across the country and we ask
scientists across the country and we ask them to provide us the forecasts of the
them to provide us the forecasts of the
them to provide us the forecasts of the election outcome and you would think
election outcome and you would think
election outcome and you would think that experts have knowledge about how to
that experts have knowledge about how to
that experts have knowledge about how to read polls they know that polls have
read polls they know that polls have
read polls they know that polls have errors but they should be able to kind
errors but they should be able to kind
errors but they should be able to kind of tell you in which direction the arrow
of tell you in which direction the arrow
of tell you in which direction the arrow is and move the forecasts into the right
is and move the forecasts into the right
is and move the forecasts into the right direction
direction
direction now this hasn’t really happened in 2016
now this hasn’t really happened in 2016
now this hasn’t really happened in 2016 the chart that you see up there shows
the chart that you see up there shows
the chart that you see up there shows you the error of the experts in
you the error of the experts in
you the error of the experts in historical elections on the left and in
historical elections on the left and in
historical elections on the left and in this election on the right and it shows
this election on the right and it shows
this election on the right and it shows you that in this election the era was
you that in this election the era was
you that in this election the era was much higher and what happened is is that
much higher and what happened is is that
much higher and what happened is is that the expert actually thought that the
the expert actually thought that the
the expert actually thought that the polls are under estimating Clinton now
polls are under estimating Clinton now
polls are under estimating Clinton now this might sound crazy now but there was
this might sound crazy now but there was
this might sound crazy now but there was lots of talk about you know good early
lots of talk about you know good early
lots of talk about you know good early voting numbers for Clinton that Trump
voting numbers for Clinton that Trump
voting numbers for Clinton that Trump didn’t really have a turnout game or a
didn’t really have a turnout game or a
didn’t really have a turnout game or a good ground game so you could find all
good ground game so you could find all
good ground game so you could find all these pieces of evidence but there was
these pieces of evidence but there was
these pieces of evidence but there was also evidence to the contrary such as
also evidence to the contrary such as
also evidence to the contrary such as large share of undecided voters lots of
large share of undecided voters lots of
large share of undecided voters lots of uncertainty it looks like there might
uncertainty it looks like there might
uncertainty it looks like there might have been some wishful thinking going on
have been some wishful thinking going on
have been some wishful thinking going on by the experts who tend to be more
by the experts who tend to be more
by the experts who tend to be more liberal and maybe they just wanted their
liberal and maybe they just wanted their
liberal and maybe they just wanted their forecasts to be true and therefore
forecasts to be true and therefore
forecasts to be true and therefore focused on information that they
focused on information that they
focused on information that they supported it another method that we use
supported it another method that we use
supported it another method that we use are so-called prediction markets on
are so-called prediction markets on
are so-called prediction markets on these markets people bet on the outcome
these markets people bet on the outcome
these markets people bet on the outcome of the elections that is real money at
of the elections that is real money at
of the elections that is real money at stake this has a very long history goes
stake this has a very long history goes
stake this has a very long history goes back to the 19th century in the United
back to the 19th century in the United
back to the 19th century in the United States it has a very good track record
States it has a very good track record
States it has a very good track record in this election the prediction markets
in this election the prediction markets
in this election the prediction markets were really far off as you can see in
were really far off as you can see in
were really far off as you can see in the chart the error was about five times
the chart the error was about five times
the chart the error was about five times higher than it used to be in previous
higher than it used to be in previous
higher than it used to be in previous elections now the question is why is
elections now the question is why is
elections now the question is why is that we still have to analyze but it
that we still have to analyze but it
that we still have to analyze but it looks a lot that it depends on who
looks a lot that it depends on who
looks a lot that it depends on who participates in these markets we know
participates in these markets we know
participates in these markets we know from prior research that that’s people
from prior research that that’s people
from prior research that that’s people who tend to be highly educated they tend
who tend to be highly educated they tend
who tend to be highly educated they tend to be wealthier tend to be politically
to be wealthier tend to be politically
to be wealthier tend to be politically engaged and and interested so it’s a
engaged and and interested so it’s a
engaged and and interested so it’s a very special group of the demographic
very special group of the demographic
very special group of the demographic group as the more elite group of society
group as the more elite group of society
group as the more elite group of society and it to me this kind of shows that
and it to me this kind of shows that
and it to me this kind of shows that these people they just couldn’t imagine
these people they just couldn’t imagine
these people they just couldn’t imagine that other so many people would vote for
that other so many people would vote for
that other so many people would vote for Donald Trump’s or the dramatically
Donald Trump’s or the dramatically
Donald Trump’s or the dramatically overestimated Clinton’s vulture it kind
overestimated Clinton’s vulture it kind
overestimated Clinton’s vulture it kind of shows us also a little bit about the
of shows us also a little bit about the
of shows us also a little bit about the deep polarization in the country the
deep polarization in the country the
deep polarization in the country the next method is my favorite method
next method is my favorite method
next method is my favorite method because it’s so simple instead of asking
because it’s so simple instead of asking
because it’s so simple instead of asking people who you’re going to vote for ask
people who you’re going to vote for ask
people who you’re going to vote for ask them who is going to win this question
them who is going to win this question
them who is going to win this question has existed since the 1930s but it’s
has existed since the 1930s but it’s
has existed since the 1930s but it’s often overlooked
often overlooked
often overlooked this is the most accurate method that we
this is the most accurate method that we
this is the most accurate method that we have to predict election outcomes
have to predict election outcomes
have to predict election outcomes unfortunately it’s not asked that often
unfortunately it’s not asked that often
unfortunately it’s not asked that often impulse and we only have data for the
impulse and we only have data for the
impulse and we only have data for the national level it would have been good
national level it would have been good
national level it would have been good to see this for some really critical
to see this for some really critical
to see this for some really critical state of swing states what the voters
state of swing states what the voters
state of swing states what the voters would have think thought in states such
would have think thought in states such
would have think thought in states such as Pennsylvania and then of course you
as Pennsylvania and then of course you
as Pennsylvania and then of course you know 1930s we saw the rise of scientific
know 1930s we saw the rise of scientific
know 1930s we saw the rise of scientific polling and polls have era we knew that
polling and polls have era we knew that
polling and polls have era we knew that polls had big errors like this one in
polls had big errors like this one in
polls had big errors like this one in 1948 the 2016 error will be big in some
1948 the 2016 error will be big in some
1948 the 2016 error will be big in some states but there has also been some
states but there has also been some
states but there has also been some excellent work on how to improve upon
excellent work on how to improve upon
excellent work on how to improve upon the accuracy of polls which is by again
the accuracy of polls which is by again
the accuracy of polls which is by again combining combining forecasts so we can
combining combining forecasts so we can
combining combining forecasts so we can reduce the error of polls and these
reduce the error of polls and these
reduce the error of polls and these methods to work really well
methods to work really well
methods to work really well another group of methods that we use are
another group of methods that we use are
another group of methods that we use are so-called political economy models these
so-called political economy models these
so-called political economy models these models are based on the idea that voting
models are based on the idea that voting
models are based on the idea that voting is retrospective so voters look back
is retrospective so voters look back
is retrospective so voters look back they look at well how well has the
they look at well how well has the
they look at well how well has the president done his job in particular in
president done his job in particular in
president done his job in particular in hanging the economy so they use economic
hanging the economy so they use economic
hanging the economy so they use economic indicators and they also lose use
indicators and they also lose use
indicators and they also lose use factors such as the electoral cycle
factors such as the electoral cycle
factors such as the electoral cycle because we know from history that
because we know from history that
because we know from history that Americans after a while they won’t
Americans after a while they won’t
Americans after a while they won’t change in who is leading the government
change in who is leading the government
change in who is leading the government and if you use these factors you can
and if you use these factors you can
and if you use these factors you can make a prediction about future elections
make a prediction about future elections
make a prediction about future elections and ironically this method provided the
and ironically this method provided the
and ironically this method provided the most accurate predictions in this
most accurate predictions in this
most accurate predictions in this election and I’m saying ironically
election and I’m saying ironically
election and I’m saying ironically because first of all it doesn’t have a
because first of all it doesn’t have a
because first of all it doesn’t have a very great track record and second of
very great track record and second of
very great track record and second of all many of these models assume that the
all many of these models assume that the
all many of these models assume that the candidates play no role for the outcome
candidates play no role for the outcome
candidates play no role for the outcome of the election which is completely
of the election which is completely
of the election which is completely counterintuitive when you look at how
counterintuitive when you look at how
counterintuitive when you look at how candidate focused this election was and
candidate focused this election was and
candidate focused this election was and then the final group of methods that we
then the final group of methods that we
then the final group of methods that we have in contrast look specifically about
have in contrast look specifically about
have in contrast look specifically about what impact do campaigns have on the
what impact do campaigns have on the
what impact do campaigns have on the election outcome so they try to measure
election outcome so they try to measure
election outcome so they try to measure for example how voters perceive the
for example how voters perceive the
for example how voters perceive the candidates on handling the issues facing
candidates on handling the issues facing
candidates on handling the issues facing the country these models again failed
the country these models again failed
the country these models again failed badly and they overestimated Clinton
badly and they overestimated Clinton
badly and they overestimated Clinton which she was favored in many issues
which she was favored in many issues
which she was favored in many issues which might also tell us something about
which might also tell us something about
which might also tell us something about maybe a
maybe a
maybe a of media coverage about which issues are
of media coverage about which issues are
of media coverage about which issues are really important and who might be a
really important and who might be a
really important and who might be a better candidate to solve them so what
better candidate to solve them so what
better candidate to solve them so what we know from prior research in
we know from prior research in
we know from prior research in forecasting from elections but also in
forecasting from elections but also in
forecasting from elections but also in other fields is that the accuracy of
other fields is that the accuracy of
other fields is that the accuracy of different methods varies a lot over time
different methods varies a lot over time
different methods varies a lot over time and we see it again in 2016 methods that
and we see it again in 2016 methods that
and we see it again in 2016 methods that have worked well in the past don’t
have worked well in the past don’t
have worked well in the past don’t necessarily work well in the future we
necessarily work well in the future we
necessarily work well in the future we saw that with prediction markets this
saw that with prediction markets this
saw that with prediction markets this time and we seed with political economy
time and we seed with political economy
time and we seed with political economy models as well who did not do well in
models as well who did not do well in
models as well who did not do well in previous elections but really have done
previous elections but really have done
previous elections but really have done well now well what does this mean the
well now well what does this mean the
well now well what does this mean the point is that it’s really difficult to
point is that it’s really difficult to
point is that it’s really difficult to predict which method will be the most
predict which method will be the most
predict which method will be the most accurate for predicting a particular
accurate for predicting a particular
accurate for predicting a particular event if you would have asked me before
event if you would have asked me before
event if you would have asked me before the election which method is most likely
the election which method is most likely
the election which method is most likely wrong I would have probably picked
wrong I would have probably picked
wrong I would have probably picked political economy models simply because
political economy models simply because
political economy models simply because not a good track record and assume that
not a good track record and assume that
not a good track record and assume that candidates don’t really play a role so
candidates don’t really play a role so
candidates don’t really play a role so it’s not really the conditions under
it’s not really the conditions under
it’s not really the conditions under which you would assume this method to
which you would assume this method to
which you would assume this method to work I would have been proved really
work I would have been proved really
work I would have been proved really wrong and that’s of course the reason
wrong and that’s of course the reason
wrong and that’s of course the reason why the principle of combining works
why the principle of combining works
why the principle of combining works because if you use all this information
because if you use all this information
because if you use all this information that’s out there and you put it into one
that’s out there and you put it into one
that’s out there and you put it into one forecast you usually have the effect
forecast you usually have the effect
forecast you usually have the effect that you use more information and second
that you use more information and second
that you use more information and second of all usually the error of the
of all usually the error of the
of all usually the error of the different methods cancel out because
different methods cancel out because
different methods cancel out because usually methods have errors but in
usually methods have errors but in
usually methods have errors but in different directions
different directions
different directions now the problem this year was that most
now the problem this year was that most
now the problem this year was that most of these methods had the same error in
of these methods had the same error in
of these methods had the same error in the same direction most of the methods
the same direction most of the methods
the same direction most of the methods overestimated Clinton’s share and many
overestimated Clinton’s share and many
overestimated Clinton’s share and many of the methods overestimated it by a lot
of the methods overestimated it by a lot
of the methods overestimated it by a lot and this is of course the situation when
and this is of course the situation when
and this is of course the situation when combining cannot work as well it still
combining cannot work as well it still
combining cannot work as well it still does as well as the typical forecasts
does as well as the typical forecasts
does as well as the typical forecasts and it prevents you from making really
and it prevents you from making really
and it prevents you from making really large errors by picking a poor
large errors by picking a poor
large errors by picking a poor prediction but it cannot be as good as
prediction but it cannot be as good as
prediction but it cannot be as good as the best forecasts but that’s not what
the best forecasts but that’s not what
the best forecasts but that’s not what combining forecast claims the claim is
combining forecast claims the claim is
combining forecast claims the claim is that if you do it over and over again
that if you do it over and over again
that if you do it over and over again not just for one election over and over
not just for one election over and over
not just for one election over and over again you will have the effect because
again you will have the effect because
again you will have the effect because all the other methods vary in the
all the other methods vary in the
all the other methods vary in the accuracy that you will get a really
accuracy that you will get a really
accuracy that you will get a really accurate prediction and again it
accurate prediction and again it
accurate prediction and again it protects you from large errors
protects you from large errors
protects you from large errors and I think another big benefit is
and I think another big benefit is
and I think another big benefit is because we aggregate all this
because we aggregate all this
because we aggregate all this information we really have it in front
information we really have it in front
information we really have it in front of us and I think that’s the biggest
of us and I think that’s the biggest
of us and I think that’s the biggest puzzle about this election that the
puzzle about this election that the
puzzle about this election that the experts and the betting markets which
experts and the betting markets which
experts and the betting markets which are also self selected experts they bet
are also self selected experts they bet
are also self selected experts they bet money on their information they really
money on their information they really
money on their information they really missed what’s going on and some of the
missed what’s going on and some of the
missed what’s going on and some of the information was there so I think it’s
information was there so I think it’s
information was there so I think it’s not really a lack of polling accuracy
not really a lack of polling accuracy
not really a lack of polling accuracy this time it was really a failure of
this time it was really a failure of
this time it was really a failure of pundits and maybe also the media because
pundits and maybe also the media because
pundits and maybe also the media because the media there were models that say
the media there were models that say
the media there were models that say like look the electoral cycle is
like look the electoral cycle is
like look the electoral cycle is important look the economy’s an
important look the economy’s an
important look the economy’s an important factor
important factor
important factor look there is lots of undecided voters
look there is lots of undecided voters
look there is lots of undecided voters that could have been an important factor
that could have been an important factor
that could have been an important factor to point out and it hadn’t happen so
to point out and it hadn’t happen so
to point out and it hadn’t happen so niels bohr once famously said prediction
niels bohr once famously said prediction
niels bohr once famously said prediction is very difficult especially if it’s
is very difficult especially if it’s
is very difficult especially if it’s about the future forecasting is not an
about the future forecasting is not an
about the future forecasting is not an exact science they will get better and I
exact science they will get better and I
exact science they will get better and I think the 2016 failure will ignite a lot
think the 2016 failure will ignite a lot
think the 2016 failure will ignite a lot of new research we’re already thinking
of new research we’re already thinking
of new research we’re already thinking about what we can do better of course
about what we can do better of course
about what we can do better of course we’re thinking about how to maybe
we’re thinking about how to maybe
we’re thinking about how to maybe combine our forecast in a different way
combine our forecast in a different way
combine our forecast in a different way or how to challenge experts that they
or how to challenge experts that they
or how to challenge experts that they also can kind of consider contradictory
also can kind of consider contradictory
also can kind of consider contradictory information and I know there’s a lot of
information and I know there’s a lot of
information and I know there’s a lot of work now in the polling industry to
work now in the polling industry to
work now in the polling industry to really figure out what happened and how
really figure out what happened and how
really figure out what happened and how to improve but there will always be a
to improve but there will always be a
to improve but there will always be a random component of error and maybe the
random component of error and maybe the
random component of error and maybe the FBI letter about Clinton’s emails was
FBI letter about Clinton’s emails was
FBI letter about Clinton’s emails was some sort of random October Surprise
some sort of random October Surprise
some sort of random October Surprise that really had an effect on the outcome
that really had an effect on the outcome
that really had an effect on the outcome of the election we don’t know but the
of the election we don’t know but the
of the election we don’t know but the point is don’t take the forecast too
point is don’t take the forecast too
point is don’t take the forecast too seriously don’t don’t take them for
seriously don’t don’t take them for
seriously don’t don’t take them for granted don’t take them as an insurance
granted don’t take them as an insurance
granted don’t take them as an insurance not to go to vote or as an excuse not to
not to go to vote or as an excuse not to
not to go to vote or as an excuse not to go to vote don’t rely on us to predict
go to vote don’t rely on us to predict
go to vote don’t rely on us to predict the future but rather shape the future
the future but rather shape the future
the future but rather shape the future by going out and vote thank you
”
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