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À quoi ressemblera l’Europe dans 20 ans? | Jean Quatremer | TEDxYouth@EEB3


hello to all so jean quatremer

liberation journalist like you

the explained it’s been 25 years that I cover

europe and I was given a subject that

is totally impossible ie to

what will Europe look like in 20 years

frankly i do not know i’m

not showy I do not shoot the cards

it is extremely difficult to draw

predictions so facts that are

necessarily unknown from facts

known then the only thing we can

to do is to list known facts

and we try to predict from these

facts known today that can

change tomorrow or soon after tomorrow

the most evolutionary lines

probable

so when we talk about europe I think

that the first thing to do is

to abandon all that we you

learned everything that is believed on

europe because europe is not

a whole europe of the peoples of which you are

speak constantly we are there europe

peoples erasmus the journeys of the

things like that would have been europe

it’s a europe of states it is necessary

abandon that idea that it’s the

peoples who wanted europe europe

was never wanted by the peoples

the day after the second war

world in 1950 when we launch the

community building at this time

that’s what you believe

while the peoples of europe was

destroyed by a war absolutely

monstrous that he saw a genocide

between 1945 and 1950 there have been

massive displacement of populations

across europe people were dying

still hungry mourey cold france

was still destroyed I do not even speak

not Eastern countries under the bluntly

interests strictly nothing

Germany had been destroyed by

allies since she had resisted

until the end

do you believe that at that moment

the central concern of peoples

it was to think of Europe

obviously not the central concern

peoples at that time it was

think about daily survival and he has

took a few men an elite a

tiny elite who call themselves but

how can we do to prevent the

disaster that we have just experienced in

1939 1945 who repeated the catastrophe of

14-18 repeats itself again

so this is a project that has been

worn by some so the French

the Germans the Italians then the countries

from benelux netherlands belgium and

luxembourg

this little elite gathered around

of a table saying what are we

can do to prevent it from starting again

and the idea was to build

europe we build it you know

the economic coal community and

of the cd rom steel was in common the

management of coal and steel

allowed to make weapons

and then we did the big

market so the economic community

European

but every time it’s treated have been

negotiated by elites wanted by

elites and that was adopted not by

referendum but by parliaments so

composed of deputies representing

peoples and honestly peoples it’s

in 1957 you had questioning the

peoples to know what europe was

people bron god yes it is coal

and possibly steel from

60s is agriculture but they

were not ready more concerned than

this is what things

basically changed today

obviously not have you seen

big demonstrations across

europe to defend the european idea

do you see peoples

anguished citizens anguished facing

the future of europe street a small

minority but most people do not

do not care about the majority of people

first feel national and then

possibly European or citizen

of the world

europe it’s still a state affair a

crime case so it’s very important

what I am saying to you

because as these are the states that

have decided to do something that we

had never done so far

that is, to share sovereignty

a part of our sovereignty

voluntarily with other states

so far what had been done

it was empires only

empires ie there was a state

who conquered the other states that

imposed his language his culture his

economic system

his legal system this time he

had to find one so a point

balanced between states that had

legal historical traditions

economic and it’s totally

different and that it was necessary

so build outbreaks build

institutions in which

states come together and that compromises

which would be developed by these institutions

do not really hurt people this is

to say that nobody wins but

nobody loses either

it was dirty important in the

community building and especially

states wary of each other

wanted to keep absolute control and

have always sought to keep the

absolute control of the institutions

community it creates that’s why

than today when we speak to you

europe

you do not understand anything and

frankly I do not blame you

because myself after 25 years at

to take care of European affairs I am

lose again because you have to

principle of all construction

community is how the states

can control it the origin of the laws

Community because Europe is

a c is essentially a producer

of standards and on arrival begins these

standards are applied in the

different states the states are if you

want the hand of god this one on it

principle of origin and the principle of

reception each time so they

control the institutions as a whole

it’s not at all the united states

europe

it’s not you do not have a president

american a European president you

have passed does not exist you do not have

that one states you have a wave

European parliament that looks a little

to the House of Representatives

americans but the european parliament

is not the House of Representatives

yesterday just look at how are

elected MEPs

it is in the case of constituency

national and the little ones

representatives finally the citizens of the

small states weigh up to 12 times more

that the representatives of the great states

for example it takes 850 4000 French

to elect a deputy when you do not have to

than 72 Maltese mines to elect a

deputy ie it is the negation of the

founding principle of any democracy

a man equals a voice this one she she

understand that if we have in our head that

these are the states that actually sends

representatives of citizens sit on the

European Parliament

and these are the states that are the

masters of the skill that’s called

the competence of the competence to say

it is they who decide at every moment

what will happen in the machine

community if you ask me

question but I know what basically

competences of the European Union of

what is the European Union doing then

I have a vague idea that is to say that I

know that there are five skills

exclusive but for the rest whose

monetary policy for example the

competition policy

lapret the preservation of resources

halieutic fisheries what is it

it’s the mother obviously the fishes get

it’s absolutely essential

so that’s the presses and those things

which deals with the European Union alone

but for the rest we do not know anything

because these are so-called

shared skills

that is, states can

decide unanimously within the board

European heads of state

government to get some

number of domains in the machine

Community therefore the skills of

the European Union spend their time

vary according to the interests of

states so when we salsa in the lead

that is basically that’s the

states that controls the machinery

Community therefore the possible evolution

of the European Union we must question

not peoples tell themselves what is this

which is possible with peoples world

but what do the states want so

you have to go to the states and

to evolve the European Union to

that it changes

as these are the states that are the

masters beyond the skill and who

are the masters of the treatises it takes

so that states accept to

unanimously to amend the rules of the

game you imagine if it took

the unanimity of the French to limit

British dynamited the Belgians for

modify the constitution

well the evolutions would be

extremely slowly

that’s why Europe evolved

extremely slowly strokes

compromise extremely often twisted

unsatisfactory in which many do not

not find themselves but again

in which no one has the

feeling of actually losing a

part 2 of sounds of his I would say of his

sovereignty or its national interests

would be totally compromised once

you have that in mind

how can the european union evolve

but then it would be necessary for me my dream

it’s a federal europe ie

we are building the united states of europe to

the American with a European president

elected a senate a chamber of

skills representatives

extremely precise sovereigns in

areas in which the union

European today has no

competence defense politics

foreign immigration policy the

asylum policy etc

that is to say in fact of competence

sovereign what makes a state if he

makes a European power

that’s what happens in the usa

you have an elected US president

with it has armed forces that

decides who enter the territory

american who do not enter politics

immigration

the naturalization policy so the

nationality etc

so that would be my dream but it would

say that states actually gives up the

control of institutions

Community, that is, we give up

at the control of the european union

and that’s the problem and this is the big

disappointment is that it will not happen

only happen if citizens you

you seize Europe and force you

the states to do this big federal leap

so the most likely evolution

alas, alas, alas, of the european union

and I still suffer a form

European federalist

is that we risk having I would say the

continuation of what is being done

today ie something

of foggy complex where we do not know

who really exercise the

responsibility or states when they

go home the heads of

government when they go home

say it’s not me who said it’s

airlock and brussels have not worked

this is the fault in Brussels even if all

it’s a lie

so this system in which people get

find no one feels

represent risk of continuing with

improvements obviously because the

improvements there will be forced to them from

do it simply because of the shock

external crises

what just happened for example

with the crisis of the euro area bah it

constrained us for example created

so these techniques I recognize it

the banking union that means what it is

to say that banks instead of being

controlled by states and by

national central banks are

controlled directly by Frankfurt and

the European Central Bank

you’re going to say yeah that was who no

it’s very important because the

banks and governments sleep

together they are the same ones who

lead

and that’s why there was

a lot of bank failures because

in fact we protect each other

other bricks now if you have

a banking system that is controlled

by an external and federal authority

you have a chance that the crisis of

2007 2008 does not happen again it’s a

certainly technical progress but it is

a tomorrow for example we will have

a European defense

I do not really believe it

because that would mean that the

French who will remain the only defense

credible in the European Union since

the British go away and that’s it

will not regret and so it’s more than

the British are leaving well

it will be difficult for the French

to accept that the intervention of his

army be decided by 27 more countries

it will mean that countries that have

pacifist traditions that refuse

to go fight agree to go

to send men to die on

outdoor theaters

because today the majority of the

European population considers that

to wage war and die to defend

its national interests the interests

in this case

well it’s not part of a future

I would say desirable and predictable

and yet we must think that if we

wants to defend our interests someday he

will have to go to war we do not live

in a mickey world we do not live in

disneyland

it will fight well and the problem

it’s just once again that for

make this credible European defense

that means that 1 France gives up

its sovereignty but it also means

that other countries agree to send

young people dying on the bottom yes because

what are the young people who are going to die

it’s rarely the old people of my

age who will die on the front we will

sends the youngsters as a rule so

this is likely to be debts of

their taking to continue like this us to

say claudicating in a world in a

world which alas is becoming more and more

complexes where we are weighing less and

less today Europe is 500

millions of people in a world of 7

billion people in twenty years

will still be a world of no doubt 8 9

10 billion people and we

will ask less and less if we

I will finish on this sentence if we

fail to unite and well one

will disappear from the story of

mankind

thank you

[Applause]

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