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Evolution, equilibrium, and global extinction | Justin Werfel | TEDxBeaconStreet


I study collective behavior in a bunch

I study collective behavior in a bunch of different areas so normally at

of different areas so normally at

of different areas so normally at beginning up here to tell you about

beginning up here to tell you about

beginning up here to tell you about robots were about social insects or

robots were about social insects or

robots were about social insects or designing molecules but this is the

designing molecules but this is the

designing molecules but this is the thing I think is really important to

thing I think is really important to

thing I think is really important to talk to you about 10 years ago my sister

talk to you about 10 years ago my sister

talk to you about 10 years ago my sister decided she wasn’t sure anymore that she

decided she wasn’t sure anymore that she

decided she wasn’t sure anymore that she still wanted to have kids because she’d

still wanted to have kids because she’d

still wanted to have kids because she’d become worried that the world they’d

become worried that the world they’d

become worried that the world they’d grow up in was going to be a

grow up in was going to be a

grow up in was going to be a post-apocalyptic disaster movie and

post-apocalyptic disaster movie and

post-apocalyptic disaster movie and that’s my fault

that’s my fault

that’s my fault I’ve been doing some research in

I’ve been doing some research in

I’ve been doing some research in evolutionary theory which sounds like a

evolutionary theory which sounds like a

evolutionary theory which sounds like a very academic topic right you know I’m

very academic topic right you know I’m

very academic topic right you know I’m very much focused on the past really not

very much focused on the past really not

very much focused on the past really not relevant to our actual lives today but

relevant to our actual lives today but

relevant to our actual lives today but some of the implications of what I was

some of the implications of what I was

some of the implications of what I was studying together with things going on

studying together with things going on

studying together with things going on in the world got me really worried about

in the world got me really worried about

in the world got me really worried about conclusions that I couldn’t avoid

conclusions that I couldn’t avoid

conclusions that I couldn’t avoid drawing it started with looking at the

drawing it started with looking at the

drawing it started with looking at the evolution of cooperation which is kind

evolution of cooperation which is kind

evolution of cooperation which is kind of a surprising thing if you think about

of a surprising thing if you think about

of a surprising thing if you think about it if evolution is driven by competition

it if evolution is driven by competition

it if evolution is driven by competition right and in organisms main competitors

right and in organisms main competitors

right and in organisms main competitors or others of its own species then why

or others of its own species then why

or others of its own species then why should cooperation be as successful is

should cooperation be as successful is

should cooperation be as successful is it apparently is the accepted

it apparently is the accepted

it apparently is the accepted explanation is about shared genes so I

explanation is about shared genes so I

explanation is about shared genes so I may do something that looks like I’m

may do something that looks like I’m

may do something that looks like I’m being helpful but actually I’m helping

being helpful but actually I’m helping

being helpful but actually I’m helping you only because and only as much as we

you only because and only as much as we

you only because and only as much as we have genes in common

have genes in common

have genes in common so I’m actually acting in my own

so I’m actually acting in my own

so I’m actually acting in my own self-interest even if it doesn’t look

self-interest even if it doesn’t look

self-interest even if it doesn’t look like it because I’m acting in my genes

like it because I’m acting in my genes

like it because I’m acting in my genes interest and the standard theory says

interest and the standard theory says

interest and the standard theory says that organisms doing things not in their

that organisms doing things not in their

that organisms doing things not in their own interest is impossible if you’ve got

own interest is impossible if you’ve got

own interest is impossible if you’ve got two versions of an organism one that’s

two versions of an organism one that’s

two versions of an organism one that’s self-sacrificing and one that’s selfish

self-sacrificing and one that’s selfish

self-sacrificing and one that’s selfish the standard theory says the selfish

the standard theory says the selfish

the standard theory says the selfish kind should win right it should out of

kind should win right it should out of

kind should win right it should out of all the other and it should survive

all the other and it should survive

all the other and it should survive while the self-sacrificing type dies

while the self-sacrificing type dies

while the self-sacrificing type dies the thing is that established theory is

the thing is that established theory is

the thing is that established theory is based on a hidden assumption which is

based on a hidden assumption which is

based on a hidden assumption which is that everything is mixed together

that everything is mixed together

that everything is mixed together essentially everything is happening in

essentially everything is happening in

essentially everything is happening in the same place anything that happens

the same place anything that happens

the same place anything that happens anywhere affects everyone equally but if

anywhere affects everyone equally but if

anywhere affects everyone equally but if instead things are spread out in space

instead things are spread out in space

instead things are spread out in space as we call that a spatial system so that

as we call that a spatial system so that

as we call that a spatial system so that things can be different in different

things can be different in different

things can be different in different different locations then everything

different locations then everything

different locations then everything changes so let’s look at a very simple

changes so let’s look at a very simple

changes so let’s look at a very simple model suppose you’ve got some organism

model suppose you’ve got some organism

model suppose you’ve got some organism of interest and it consumes some

of interest and it consumes some

of interest and it consumes some resource and this is a general model

resource and this is a general model

resource and this is a general model it’s very abstract this could apply to

it’s very abstract this could apply to

it’s very abstract this could apply to predators and prey could describe

predators and prey could describe

predators and prey could describe herbivores and plants could be bacteria

herbivores and plants could be bacteria

herbivores and plants could be bacteria the only important thing here is that

the only important thing here is that

the only important thing here is that you’ve got these two interacting types

you’ve got these two interacting types

you’ve got these two interacting types one of which lives at the expense of the

one of which lives at the expense of the

one of which lives at the expense of the other so both these organisms and these

other so both these organisms and these

other so both these organisms and these resources can reproduce themselves and

resources can reproduce themselves and

resources can reproduce themselves and the organisms consume the resources and

the organisms consume the resources and

the organisms consume the resources and the evolution comes into this model by

the evolution comes into this model by

the evolution comes into this model by letting the organisms change how fast

letting the organisms change how fast

letting the organisms change how fast they’re reproducing so any particular

they’re reproducing so any particular

they’re reproducing so any particular organism has a fixed reproduction rate

organism has a fixed reproduction rate

organism has a fixed reproduction rate so that’s set by its genes but when it

so that’s set by its genes but when it

so that’s set by its genes but when it reproduces there can be some mutation

reproduces there can be some mutation

reproduces there can be some mutation and the offspring can have a value

and the offspring can have a value

and the offspring can have a value that’s a little bit higher or a little

that’s a little bit higher or a little

that’s a little bit higher or a little bit lower than the parent and then you

bit lower than the parent and then you

bit lower than the parent and then you can ask how does this reproduction rate

can ask how does this reproduction rate

can ask how does this reproduction rate evolve in the population over time well

evolve in the population over time well

evolve in the population over time well if everything is mixed together

if everything is mixed together

if everything is mixed together if all of the resources are in one pool

if all of the resources are in one pool

if all of the resources are in one pool supply and everyone has access to it

supply and everyone has access to it

supply and everyone has access to it then what you see is this rate increases

then what you see is this rate increases

then what you see is this rate increases over time it just keeps on increasing

over time it just keeps on increasing

over time it just keeps on increasing which makes sense if you’re reproducing

which makes sense if you’re reproducing

which makes sense if you’re reproducing faster you’ll tend to have more

faster you’ll tend to have more

faster you’ll tend to have more offspring they will tend to inherit your

offspring they will tend to inherit your

offspring they will tend to inherit your higher reproduction rate and so there’s

higher reproduction rate and so there’s

higher reproduction rate and so there’s always this advantage to reproducing

always this advantage to reproducing

always this advantage to reproducing more and using more resources but if

more and using more resources but if

more and using more resources but if instead things are spatial if

instead things are spatial if

instead things are spatial if reproduction and consumption are

reproduction and consumption are

reproduction and consumption are happening only locally and what happens

happening only locally and what happens

happening only locally and what happens in one place affects only the nearby

in one place affects only the nearby

in one place affects only the nearby area at first it doesn’t immediately

area at first it doesn’t immediately

area at first it doesn’t immediately affect everyone everywhere then what you

affect everyone everywhere then what you

affect everyone everywhere then what you see is very different the reproduction

see is very different the reproduction

see is very different the reproduction rate increase

rate increase

rate increase at first but then it stops it reaches an

at first but then it stops it reaches an

at first but then it stops it reaches an equilibrium and it doesn’t keep going

equilibrium and it doesn’t keep going

equilibrium and it doesn’t keep going higher in fact if you start off the

higher in fact if you start off the

higher in fact if you start off the population reproducing faster it’ll

population reproducing faster it’ll

population reproducing faster it’ll actually evolve to fall to that

actually evolve to fall to that

actually evolve to fall to that equilibrium level so this is a

equilibrium level so this is a

equilibrium level so this is a completely different result in the mixed

completely different result in the mixed

completely different result in the mixed case more consumption always wins in the

case more consumption always wins in the

case more consumption always wins in the spatial case restraint always wins okay

spatial case restraint always wins okay

spatial case restraint always wins okay so what’s going on here why is there

so what’s going on here why is there

so what’s going on here why is there this difference if you look at the

this difference if you look at the

this difference if you look at the spatial model running in a simulation

spatial model running in a simulation

spatial model running in a simulation you can see that the population

you can see that the population

you can see that the population organizes itself to have this sort of

organizes itself to have this sort of

organizes itself to have this sort of patchy structure and in particular

patchy structure and in particular

patchy structure and in particular there’s a limit to how far and how fast

there’s a limit to how far and how fast

there’s a limit to how far and how fast the organisms can spread before they run

the organisms can spread before they run

the organisms can spread before they run out of resources so suppose you’ve got

out of resources so suppose you’ve got

out of resources so suppose you’ve got two types of these organisms one that’s

two types of these organisms one that’s

two types of these organisms one that’s reproducing fast and one that’s

reproducing fast and one that’s

reproducing fast and one that’s reproducing slow well in a head-to-head

reproducing slow well in a head-to-head

reproducing slow well in a head-to-head competition for a single patch of

competition for a single patch of

competition for a single patch of resources the fast type is going to have

resources the fast type is going to have

resources the fast type is going to have an advantage right it’s going to be able

an advantage right it’s going to be able

an advantage right it’s going to be able to grab more of those resources for

to grab more of those resources for

to grab more of those resources for itself but if more resources aren’t

itself but if more resources aren’t

itself but if more resources aren’t becoming available as fast as they’re

becoming available as fast as they’re

becoming available as fast as they’re getting used up then at some point that

getting used up then at some point that

getting used up then at some point that fast type is going to run out of

fast type is going to run out of

fast type is going to run out of resources and it’s going to die out and

resources and it’s going to die out and

resources and it’s going to die out and then surviving slower ones from

then surviving slower ones from

then surviving slower ones from somewhere else can come in and

somewhere else can come in and

somewhere else can come in and repopulate that area and you can see

repopulate that area and you can see

repopulate that area and you can see that happening in this graph over time

that happening in this graph over time

that happening in this graph over time if you look not just at the average

if you look not just at the average

if you look not just at the average reproduction in the population but if

reproduction in the population but if

reproduction in the population but if you look at the maximum you can see

you look at the maximum you can see

you look at the maximum you can see places where a faster reproducing type

places where a faster reproducing type

places where a faster reproducing type shows up and it does well for a while

shows up and it does well for a while

shows up and it does well for a while this fastest rate in the population

this fastest rate in the population

this fastest rate in the population keeps increasing and it keeps increasing

keeps increasing and it keeps increasing

keeps increasing and it keeps increasing and then it suddenly Falls and that’s

and then it suddenly Falls and that’s

and then it suddenly Falls and that’s where that type ran out of resources and

where that type ran out of resources and

where that type ran out of resources and died out and that happens over and over

died out and that happens over and over

died out and that happens over and over again and it’s those local separated

again and it’s those local separated

again and it’s those local separated extinctions that make it possible for

extinctions that make it possible for

extinctions that make it possible for the population overall to have this

the population overall to have this

the population overall to have this limitation as equilibrium and if you go

limitation as equilibrium and if you go

limitation as equilibrium and if you go back to the mixed case you can’t have a

back to the mixed case you can’t have a

back to the mixed case you can’t have a local extinction here there’s no such

local extinction here there’s no such

local extinction here there’s no such thing as local and if you watch what

thing as local and if you watch what

thing as local and if you watch what happens as this runs for longer what you

happens as this runs for longer what you

happens as this runs for longer what you see actually at some point is global

see actually at some point is global

see actually at some point is global extinction everyone dies everywhere it’s

extinction everyone dies everywhere it’s

extinction everyone dies everywhere it’s the same thing that was happening little

the same thing that was happening little

the same thing that was happening little subpopulations in the spacial case but

subpopulations in the spacial case but

subpopulations in the spacial case but here it has to happen to the whole

here it has to happen to the whole

here it has to happen to the whole population

population

population if everybody’s eating out of the same

if everybody’s eating out of the same

if everybody’s eating out of the same pot everyone has to pay the penalty of

pot everyone has to pay the penalty of

pot everyone has to pay the penalty of using too much so what this model is

using too much so what this model is

using too much so what this model is telling us then is why is their

telling us then is why is their

telling us then is why is their cooperation and restraint in nature

cooperation and restraint in nature

cooperation and restraint in nature because nature is spatial things are

because nature is spatial things are

because nature is spatial things are spread out and there is always an

spread out and there is always an

spread out and there is always an advantage in the short-term to consuming

advantage in the short-term to consuming

advantage in the short-term to consuming more and you keep getting types showing

more and you keep getting types showing

more and you keep getting types showing up that do consume more and then they

up that do consume more and then they

up that do consume more and then they push things too far and they kill

push things too far and they kill

push things too far and they kill themselves off now it turns out that

themselves off now it turns out that

themselves off now it turns out that that’s true also of human beings

that’s true also of human beings

that’s true also of human beings repeatedly throughout human history

repeatedly throughout human history

repeatedly throughout human history local societies have arisen and then

local societies have arisen and then

local societies have arisen and then vanished we’re a major contributing

vanished we’re a major contributing

vanished we’re a major contributing factor has been over exploiting their

factor has been over exploiting their

factor has been over exploiting their resources it’s happened multiple times

resources it’s happened multiple times

resources it’s happened multiple times in Polynesia it happened to the Maya and

in Polynesia it happened to the Maya and

in Polynesia it happened to the Maya and Central America to the North’s in

Central America to the North’s in

Central America to the North’s in Greenland to the ancestral Puebloans in

Greenland to the ancestral Puebloans in

Greenland to the ancestral Puebloans in the southwestern US the list goes on and

the southwestern US the list goes on and

the southwestern US the list goes on and there are a number of recurring elements

there are a number of recurring elements

there are a number of recurring elements in what happened in each of these

in what happened in each of these

in what happened in each of these historical examples wide scale

historical examples wide scale

historical examples wide scale deforestation soil erosion extinctions

deforestation soil erosion extinctions

deforestation soil erosion extinctions of species this list goes on – and of

of species this list goes on – and of

of species this list goes on – and of course these are all things that are

course these are all things that are

course these are all things that are happening right now in a major way along

happening right now in a major way along

happening right now in a major way along with plenty of other examples of

with plenty of other examples of

with plenty of other examples of resources that were in the process of

resources that were in the process of

resources that were in the process of depleting and the timescale and

depleting and the timescale and

depleting and the timescale and depleting them is not centuries it’s not

depleting them is not centuries it’s not

depleting them is not centuries it’s not millennia it’s decades and the

millennia it’s decades and the

millennia it’s decades and the difference now is all of these are

difference now is all of these are

difference now is all of these are global resource issues we’re now

global resource issues we’re now

global resource issues we’re now operating at the scale of the entire

operating at the scale of the entire

operating at the scale of the entire world and the world is now connected

world and the world is now connected

world and the world is now connected things that happen in one place do

things that happen in one place do

things that happen in one place do affect people everywhere for the first

affect people everywhere for the first

affect people everywhere for the first time in history we’ve essentially made

time in history we’ve essentially made

time in history we’ve essentially made our world a mixed system and again the

our world a mixed system and again the

our world a mixed system and again the thing you can expect to happen in a

thing you can expect to happen in a

thing you can expect to happen in a mixed system is for consumption to keep

mixed system is for consumption to keep

mixed system is for consumption to keep on increasing to keep using up more and

on increasing to keep using up more and

on increasing to keep using up more and more resources until eventually there’s

more resources until eventually there’s

more resources until eventually there’s resource exhaustion and death everywhere

resource exhaustion and death everywhere

resource exhaustion and death everywhere you remember that post apocalyptic

you remember that post apocalyptic

you remember that post apocalyptic disaster movie I promised you okay but

disaster movie I promised you okay but

disaster movie I promised you okay but wait wait hang on because look wait this

wait wait hang on because look wait this

wait wait hang on because look wait this doesn’t apply to us right I mean the the

doesn’t apply to us right I mean the the

doesn’t apply to us right I mean the the creatures in this model are

creatures in this model are

creatures in this model are mindless automata they’re just blindly

mindless automata they’re just blindly

mindless automata they’re just blindly doing whatever it is that they’re

doing whatever it is that they’re

doing whatever it is that they’re programmed to do but we’re more capable

programmed to do but we’re more capable

programmed to do but we’re more capable than that right I mean we have brains we

than that right I mean we have brains we

than that right I mean we have brains we can see trouble coming and take steps to

can see trouble coming and take steps to

can see trouble coming and take steps to avoid it but that’s true only if we use

avoid it but that’s true only if we use

avoid it but that’s true only if we use that ability because another thing that

that ability because another thing that

that ability because another thing that people are really good at is doing

people are really good at is doing

people are really good at is doing things backwards first deciding on

things backwards first deciding on

things backwards first deciding on something we want to do and then finding

something we want to do and then finding

something we want to do and then finding ways to justify it only paying attention

ways to justify it only paying attention

ways to justify it only paying attention to evidence that supports the thing we

to evidence that supports the thing we

to evidence that supports the thing we want and ignoring or denying facts we

want and ignoring or denying facts we

want and ignoring or denying facts we don’t like that’s a very human thing to

don’t like that’s a very human thing to

don’t like that’s a very human thing to do it’s very easy but it’s dangerous if

do it’s very easy but it’s dangerous if

do it’s very easy but it’s dangerous if we act like the mindless automata if we

we act like the mindless automata if we

we act like the mindless automata if we keep doing the thing that seems like a

keep doing the thing that seems like a

keep doing the thing that seems like a good idea in the short term and ignore

good idea in the short term and ignore

good idea in the short term and ignore what we can anticipate or the long term

what we can anticipate or the long term

what we can anticipate or the long term consequences we know where that ends up

consequences we know where that ends up

consequences we know where that ends up so how do we avoid the extinction that

so how do we avoid the extinction that

so how do we avoid the extinction that we see in the model is the answer to

we see in the model is the answer to

we see in the model is the answer to disconnect the world to split everything

disconnect the world to split everything

disconnect the world to split everything back up into its own little enclaves no

back up into its own little enclaves no

back up into its own little enclaves no now that just makes it a local problem

now that just makes it a local problem

now that just makes it a local problem each separate area still has to deal

each separate area still has to deal

each separate area still has to deal with the same basic issue remember even

with the same basic issue remember even

with the same basic issue remember even in the spatial system there’s still

in the spatial system there’s still

in the spatial system there’s still local catastrophes if your little region

local catastrophes if your little region

local catastrophes if your little region gives in to the short-term incentives

gives in to the short-term incentives

gives in to the short-term incentives for over exploiting it still dies and

for over exploiting it still dies and

for over exploiting it still dies and yes it may be some cold intellectual

yes it may be some cold intellectual

yes it may be some cold intellectual comfort to know that other societies

comfort to know that other societies

comfort to know that other societies survive somewhere else but if your

survive somewhere else but if your

survive somewhere else but if your society dies you know that’s a problem

society dies you know that’s a problem

society dies you know that’s a problem for you so okay so maybe the answer then

for you so okay so maybe the answer then

for you so okay so maybe the answer then is technology right this is something

is technology right this is something

is technology right this is something something you sometimes hear people say

something you sometimes hear people say

something you sometimes hear people say in this context it’s okay

in this context it’s okay

in this context it’s okay technology will save us there’s always

technology will save us there’s always

technology will save us there’s always going to be some new advance so that as

going to be some new advance so that as

going to be some new advance so that as we run out of one resource another one

we run out of one resource another one

we run out of one resource another one will become available and there has been

will become available and there has been

will become available and there has been some truth to that in our current

some truth to that in our current

some truth to that in our current society and its recent history but there

society and its recent history but there

society and its recent history but there are a few things we’re thinking about

are a few things we’re thinking about

are a few things we’re thinking about there first that has sometimes been true

there first that has sometimes been true

there first that has sometimes been true it hasn’t always been true there are

it hasn’t always been true there are

it hasn’t always been true there are plenty of historical examples of

plenty of historical examples of

plenty of historical examples of societies that did not find another

societies that did not find another

societies that did not find another resource and they disappeared do we

resource and they disappeared do we

resource and they disappeared do we really want to bet ever

really want to bet ever

really want to bet ever thing that we’re always going to find a

thing that we’re always going to find a

thing that we’re always going to find a solution just when we need it to step

solution just when we need it to step

solution just when we need it to step off that cliff and say oh it’s okay

off that cliff and say oh it’s okay

off that cliff and say oh it’s okay we’ll invent a parachute on the way down

we’ll invent a parachute on the way down

we’ll invent a parachute on the way down the second point is there’s a difference

the second point is there’s a difference

the second point is there’s a difference between more resources and unlimited

between more resources and unlimited

between more resources and unlimited resources so let’s go back to the

resources so let’s go back to the

resources so let’s go back to the spatial model and suppose that at some

spatial model and suppose that at some

spatial model and suppose that at some point technological advance occurs and

point technological advance occurs and

point technological advance occurs and makes more resources available okay

makes more resources available okay

makes more resources available okay great then the equilibrium level

great then the equilibrium level

great then the equilibrium level increases but there’s still an

increases but there’s still an

increases but there’s still an equilibrium it’s still limited if you

equilibrium it’s still limited if you

equilibrium it’s still limited if you consume without limit

consume without limit

consume without limit you still die a third point is this is a

you still die a third point is this is a

you still die a third point is this is a long-term effect let’s suppose that

long-term effect let’s suppose that

long-term effect let’s suppose that you’ve got a population at equilibrium

you’ve got a population at equilibrium

you’ve got a population at equilibrium so it’s consuming resources of the same

so it’s consuming resources of the same

so it’s consuming resources of the same rate they become available and the

rate they become available and the

rate they become available and the population size is staying about the

population size is staying about the

population size is staying about the same and now you add to this population

same and now you add to this population

same and now you add to this population one more organism that’s consuming

one more organism that’s consuming

one more organism that’s consuming faster so that introduced one and its

faster so that introduced one and its

faster so that introduced one and its offspring can have an advantage of the

offspring can have an advantage of the

offspring can have an advantage of the original kind and that can be a very

original kind and that can be a very

original kind and that can be a very major advantage that can persist for a

major advantage that can persist for a

major advantage that can persist for a long time but eventually the

long time but eventually the

long time but eventually the consequences of its over exploitation

consequences of its over exploitation

consequences of its over exploitation come back to bite it and it dies out

come back to bite it and it dies out

come back to bite it and it dies out meanwhile the equilibrium type survives

meanwhile the equilibrium type survives

meanwhile the equilibrium type survives indefinitely and it’s not obvious to one

indefinitely and it’s not obvious to one

indefinitely and it’s not obvious to one of these organisms just looking around

of these organisms just looking around

of these organisms just looking around which of these paths it’s on at this

which of these paths it’s on at this

which of these paths it’s on at this point right things look like they’re

point right things look like they’re

point right things look like they’re going great but it’s important to know

going great but it’s important to know

going great but it’s important to know whether that’s the real situation or a

whether that’s the real situation or a

whether that’s the real situation or a temporary state of affairs so what is

temporary state of affairs so what is

temporary state of affairs so what is the solution how can we avoid the

the solution how can we avoid the

the solution how can we avoid the extinction that we see in the model well

extinction that we see in the model well

extinction that we see in the model well we are more capable than the brainless

we are more capable than the brainless

we are more capable than the brainless creatures in the model we can anticipate

creatures in the model we can anticipate

creatures in the model we can anticipate the future and we can choose to change

the future and we can choose to change

the future and we can choose to change it science is our ability to understand

it science is our ability to understand

it science is our ability to understand the world and what’s going to happen in

the world and what’s going to happen in

the world and what’s going to happen in it we have to use that ability paying

it we have to use that ability paying

it we have to use that ability paying attention to reality matters it has to

attention to reality matters it has to

attention to reality matters it has to be important to us and it has to be

be important to us and it has to be

be important to us and it has to be important to our decision-makers and

important to our decision-makers and

important to our decision-makers and sustainability matters sustainability is

sustainability matters sustainability is

sustainability matters sustainability is just another word for that equilibrium

just another word for that equilibrium

just another word for that equilibrium between the resources that are becoming

between the resources that are becoming

between the resources that are becoming available and the resources you’re

available and the resources you’re

available and the resources you’re consuming if you keep spending more than

consuming if you keep spending more than

consuming if you keep spending more than you’re in

you’re in

you’re in and eating into your savings at some

and eating into your savings at some

and eating into your savings at some point you’re gonna be in trouble in the

point you’re gonna be in trouble in the

point you’re gonna be in trouble in the same way if you really want a society

same way if you really want a society

same way if you really want a society and what is achieved to last really into

and what is achieved to last really into

and what is achieved to last really into the long term then being aware of that

the long term then being aware of that

the long term then being aware of that balance is important and it’s important

balance is important and it’s important

balance is important and it’s important to make it a priority to maintain it I

to make it a priority to maintain it I

to make it a priority to maintain it I mentioned that ten years ago my sister

mentioned that ten years ago my sister

mentioned that ten years ago my sister decided she wasn’t sure anymore or she

decided she wasn’t sure anymore or she

decided she wasn’t sure anymore or she still wanted to have kids

still wanted to have kids

still wanted to have kids well people do things that are important

well people do things that are important

well people do things that are important to him seven months ago she welcome to

to him seven months ago she welcome to

to him seven months ago she welcome to mica people do care about the future

mica people do care about the future

mica people do care about the future what we’ve achieved is important to us

what we’ve achieved is important to us

what we’ve achieved is important to us we want this world to last through our

we want this world to last through our

we want this world to last through our lives and to the next generation and

lives and to the next generation and

lives and to the next generation and beyond and so that balance between

beyond and so that balance between

beyond and so that balance between resources and consumption is critical

resources and consumption is critical

resources and consumption is critical and we have to be aware of that balance

and we have to be aware of that balance

and we have to be aware of that balance and it has to be important to us to be

and it has to be important to us to be

and it has to be important to us to be aware when something is important enough

aware when something is important enough

aware when something is important enough to enough people we find ways of making

to enough people we find ways of making

to enough people we find ways of making it happen we have to choose to be the

it happen we have to choose to be the

it happen we have to choose to be the capable planners instead of the mindless

capable planners instead of the mindless

capable planners instead of the mindless automaton because if we don’t mindfully

automaton because if we don’t mindfully

automaton because if we don’t mindfully maintain that equilibrium the world is

maintain that equilibrium the world is

maintain that equilibrium the world is not going to maintain it for us the

not going to maintain it for us the

not going to maintain it for us the incentives favor short term over long

incentives favor short term over long

incentives favor short term over long term and the theory and the history both

term and the theory and the history both

term and the theory and the history both tell us if we let things take their

tell us if we let things take their

tell us if we let things take their course we can absolutely expect

course we can absolutely expect

course we can absolutely expect overconsumption and collapse to be the

overconsumption and collapse to be the

overconsumption and collapse to be the end of the story and one way or the

end of the story and one way or the

end of the story and one way or the other

other

other we’re going to make a choice

we’re going to make a choice

we’re going to make a choice [Applause]

”

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