hi everybody I don’t think I need to say much more
I don’t think I need to say much more
I don’t think I need to say much more than that it was very good introduction
than that it was very good introduction
than that it was very good introduction it’s an easy topic what I want to talk
it’s an easy topic what I want to talk
it’s an easy topic what I want to talk about it has to do with extreme events
about it has to do with extreme events
about it has to do with extreme events that we cannot predict and in recent
that we cannot predict and in recent
that we cannot predict and in recent years we know that extreme natural
years we know that extreme natural
years we know that extreme natural hazards have been extremely destructive
hazards have been extremely destructive
hazards have been extremely destructive and more frequent just 2016 was the
and more frequent just 2016 was the
and more frequent just 2016 was the worst year in natural hazard losses with
worst year in natural hazard losses with
worst year in natural hazard losses with estimates on the order of more than one
estimates on the order of more than one
estimates on the order of more than one hundred and fifty billion dollars from
hundred and fifty billion dollars from
hundred and fifty billion dollars from the Swiss reinsurance one of these
the Swiss reinsurance one of these
the Swiss reinsurance one of these events that I will be referring to is
events that I will be referring to is
events that I will be referring to is the Ecuador earthquake that happened in
the Ecuador earthquake that happened in
the Ecuador earthquake that happened in April of 2016 of a magnitude 7.8 but
April of 2016 of a magnitude 7.8 but
April of 2016 of a magnitude 7.8 but more than the damage what we have
more than the damage what we have
more than the damage what we have learned is that extreme natural hazards
learned is that extreme natural hazards
learned is that extreme natural hazards can cause tremendous losses in terms of
can cause tremendous losses in terms of
can cause tremendous losses in terms of downtime of things not working and an
downtime of things not working and an
downtime of things not working and an example in the city where I live and
example in the city where I live and
example in the city where I live and work in New York City was the 2012
work in New York City was the 2012
work in New York City was the 2012 hurricane sandy where the financial
hurricane sandy where the financial
hurricane sandy where the financial damage was more than seventy billion
damage was more than seventy billion
damage was more than seventy billion dollars locally owned losses of things
dollars locally owned losses of things
dollars locally owned losses of things not working essentially we did not
not working essentially we did not
not working essentially we did not really have any structural damage but we
really have any structural damage but we
really have any structural damage but we had flooding that prevented us from
had flooding that prevented us from
had flooding that prevented us from functioning and globally of course there
functioning and globally of course there
functioning and globally of course there was a tremendous effect because the Wall
was a tremendous effect because the Wall
was a tremendous effect because the Wall Street shut down for two days so these
Street shut down for two days so these
Street shut down for two days so these are issues that affect an infrastructure
are issues that affect an infrastructure
are issues that affect an infrastructure that is already age beyond the design
that is already age beyond the design
that is already age beyond the design life that we have made it as designers
life that we have made it as designers
life that we have made it as designers which is typically 50 years it’s
which is typically 50 years it’s
which is typically 50 years it’s trembling as it is without any
trembling as it is without any
trembling as it is without any earthquake or wind or other loads and we
earthquake or wind or other loads and we
earthquake or wind or other loads and we know that just to maintain the rapid
know that just to maintain the rapid
know that just to maintain the rapid increase of our population if we wanted
increase of our population if we wanted
increase of our population if we wanted to use this existing infrastructure
to use this existing infrastructure
to use this existing infrastructure without any natural hazards hitting it
without any natural hazards hitting it
without any natural hazards hitting it on top of it we need six trillion
on top of it we need six trillion
on top of it we need six trillion dollars a year and we are only investing
dollars a year and we are only investing
dollars a year and we are only investing three so we have an issue so what do we
three so we have an issue so what do we
three so we have an issue so what do we as engineers have in certain tools and
as engineers have in certain tools and
as engineers have in certain tools and usually these tools are codes and codes
usually these tools are codes and codes
usually these tools are codes and codes have existed for many many years
have existed for many many years
have existed for many many years tracing back thousands of years ago in
tracing back thousands of years ago in
tracing back thousands of years ago in Mesopotamia in the Code of Hammurabi
Mesopotamia in the Code of Hammurabi
Mesopotamia in the Code of Hammurabi that essentially said that if a builder
that essentially said that if a builder
that essentially said that if a builder builds a house and this house is
builds a house and this house is
builds a house and this house is destroyed
destroyed
destroyed after an earthquake or for whatever
after an earthquake or for whatever
after an earthquake or for whatever other reason then this builder shall be
other reason then this builder shall be
other reason then this builder shall be put to death and the same for his child
put to death and the same for his child
put to death and the same for his child if the child of the owner is dead
if the child of the owner is dead
if the child of the owner is dead very straightforward very scary I’m sure
very straightforward very scary I’m sure
very straightforward very scary I’m sure it was quite convincing right now we
it was quite convincing right now we
it was quite convincing right now we have evolved from that and we can
have evolved from that and we can
have evolved from that and we can calculate probabilities of this maximum
calculate probabilities of this maximum
calculate probabilities of this maximum earthquake happening and how big it’s
earthquake happening and how big it’s
earthquake happening and how big it’s going to be and we have put all that in
going to be and we have put all that in
going to be and we have put all that in codes and the most recent code from the
codes and the most recent code from the
codes and the most recent code from the American Society of Civil Engineers
American Society of Civil Engineers
American Society of Civil Engineers gives actual probabilities so if you are
gives actual probabilities so if you are
gives actual probabilities so if you are now in Mesopotamia you want to build the
now in Mesopotamia you want to build the
now in Mesopotamia you want to build the same house then you know that you are
same house then you know that you are
same house then you know that you are accepting our society as a code that you
accepting our society as a code that you
accepting our society as a code that you will have a 10% probability of this
will have a 10% probability of this
will have a 10% probability of this house collapsing if that big earthquake
house collapsing if that big earthquake
house collapsing if that big earthquake happens you are also accepting a 25%
happens you are also accepting a 25%
happens you are also accepting a 25% probability that you will be hurt or
probability that you will be hurt or
probability that you will be hurt or died in that big earthquake
died in that big earthquake
died in that big earthquake why do we have this boundaries it’s a
why do we have this boundaries it’s a
why do we have this boundaries it’s a matter of economics because we cannot
matter of economics because we cannot
matter of economics because we cannot build the perfect house it could cost so
build the perfect house it could cost so
build the perfect house it could cost so much
much
much so we put boundaries and this is what
so we put boundaries and this is what
so we put boundaries and this is what our society is accepting and there is a
our society is accepting and there is a
our society is accepting and there is a fundamental cornerstone of these codes
fundamental cornerstone of these codes
fundamental cornerstone of these codes which is what we call life safety and
which is what we call life safety and
which is what we call life safety and this is something that we have been
this is something that we have been
this is something that we have been using for many many many years more than
using for many many many years more than
using for many many many years more than 20 years
20 years
20 years what graph shows you and I refer you to
what graph shows you and I refer you to
what graph shows you and I refer you to the very end of it is that for the very
the very end of it is that for the very
the very end of it is that for the very rare event you will be on a state of
rare event you will be on a state of
rare event you will be on a state of collapse prevention that means that your
collapse prevention that means that your
collapse prevention that means that your structure is going to have a lot of
structure is going to have a lot of
structure is going to have a lot of damage it may not be working it may need
damage it may not be working it may need
damage it may not be working it may need to be destroyed but right after the
to be destroyed but right after the
to be destroyed but right after the earthquake it’s going to give you the
earthquake it’s going to give you the
earthquake it’s going to give you the chance to get out of it alive and that’s
chance to get out of it alive and that’s
chance to get out of it alive and that’s how we define life safety now this is
how we define life safety now this is
how we define life safety now this is something we have used for a very very
something we have used for a very very
something we have used for a very very long time
long time
long time and our society I think has moved beyond
and our society I think has moved beyond
and our society I think has moved beyond that because if you have this life
that because if you have this life
that because if you have this life safety objective you may not have
safety objective you may not have
safety objective you may not have running water you may not have bathroom
running water you may not have bathroom
running water you may not have bathroom in your house you may not have
in your house you may not have
in your house you may not have electricity so you cannot use it if your
electricity so you cannot use it if your
electricity so you cannot use it if your house eventually has to be demolished
house eventually has to be demolished
house eventually has to be demolished it’s going to affect your life it’s
it’s going to affect your life it’s
it’s going to affect your life it’s going to affect your happiness right and
going to affect your happiness right and
going to affect your happiness right and all of these do not go into our mouth
all of these do not go into our mouth
all of these do not go into our mouth and in our code but there is a term that
and in our code but there is a term that
and in our code but there is a term that is used and oftenly overused called
is used and oftenly overused called
is used and oftenly overused called resilience that society demands and
resilience that society demands and
resilience that society demands and sometimes uses it without real and I was
sometimes uses it without real and I was
sometimes uses it without real and I was surprised when I went to Ecuador the day
surprised when I went to Ecuador the day
surprised when I went to Ecuador the day after in the front page of the biggest
after in the front page of the biggest
after in the front page of the biggest magazine for the area of Manabi that
magazine for the area of Manabi that
magazine for the area of Manabi that basically it was a province that was
basically it was a province that was
basically it was a province that was completely destroyed it became ground
completely destroyed it became ground
completely destroyed it became ground zero the first page showing the total
zero the first page showing the total
zero the first page showing the total destruction called from the people of
destruction called from the people of
destruction called from the people of Ecuador asking for resiliency they did
Ecuador asking for resiliency they did
Ecuador asking for resiliency they did not ask rebuild my house give me back my
not ask rebuild my house give me back my
not ask rebuild my house give me back my job bring food for my children
job bring food for my children
job bring food for my children they said resilience
they said resilience
they said resilience so is resiliency the answer to
so is resiliency the answer to
so is resiliency the answer to everything or resilience so looking at
everything or resilience so looking at
everything or resilience so looking at beauty pageants it has always been a
beauty pageants it has always been a
beauty pageants it has always been a very common question of what do you want
very common question of what do you want
very common question of what do you want to see for the world and historically I
to see for the world and historically I
to see for the world and historically I can show you over the time that always
can show you over the time that always
can show you over the time that always the answer has been world peace world
the answer has been world peace world
the answer has been world peace world peace until 2013 where a zillion thing
peace until 2013 where a zillion thing
peace until 2013 where a zillion thing was in fashion where Miss Philippines
was in fashion where Miss Philippines
was in fashion where Miss Philippines declared she wanted to sing resilience
declared she wanted to sing resilience
declared she wanted to sing resilience and she was crowned Miss World
and she was crowned Miss World
and she was crowned Miss World so sometimes we may overuse or think
so sometimes we may overuse or think
so sometimes we may overuse or think that resilience is the answer to
that resilience is the answer to
that resilience is the answer to everything but is it in engineering what
everything but is it in engineering what
everything but is it in engineering what we know for sure and is that we have to
we know for sure and is that we have to
we know for sure and is that we have to define things otherwise we cannot apply
define things otherwise we cannot apply
define things otherwise we cannot apply them we have tools and we need to use
them we have tools and we need to use
them we have tools and we need to use those two we have come up with as a
those two we have come up with as a
those two we have come up with as a definition of the thousand among the
definition of the thousand among the
definition of the thousand among the thousands definitions of resilience is
thousands definitions of resilience is
thousands definitions of resilience is our ability to anticipate prepare for
our ability to anticipate prepare for
our ability to anticipate prepare for adapt to changing conditions withstand
adapt to changing conditions withstand
adapt to changing conditions withstand and rapidly recover from disastrous
and rapidly recover from disastrous
and rapidly recover from disastrous events so essentially when you look at
events so essentially when you look at
events so essentially when you look at it even in the Greek dictionaries the
it even in the Greek dictionaries the
it even in the Greek dictionaries the resilience has a sense of elastic otakus
resilience has a sense of elastic otakus
resilience has a sense of elastic otakus or bouncing back and really I’m not sure
or bouncing back and really I’m not sure
or bouncing back and really I’m not sure if that’s the was engineers I don’t want
if that’s the was engineers I don’t want
if that’s the was engineers I don’t want to go back to this picture in hurricane
to go back to this picture in hurricane
to go back to this picture in hurricane sandy I don’t want to go back to this
sandy I don’t want to go back to this
sandy I don’t want to go back to this picture in Ecuador I want to bounce
picture in Ecuador I want to bounce
picture in Ecuador I want to bounce forward to something better and how do
forward to something better and how do
forward to something better and how do we do this one of the ways to to apply
we do this one of the ways to to apply
we do this one of the ways to to apply resilience is to plan ahead we cannot
resilience is to plan ahead we cannot
resilience is to plan ahead we cannot predict extreme events but we have tools
predict extreme events but we have tools
predict extreme events but we have tools to prevent them from becoming disasters
to prevent them from becoming disasters
to prevent them from becoming disasters and this has been proven FEMA the
and this has been proven FEMA the
and this has been proven FEMA the Federal Emergency Management Agency has
Federal Emergency Management Agency has
Federal Emergency Management Agency has in
in
in and has studied how much is a return in
and has studied how much is a return in
and has studied how much is a return in terms of prevention and you can see that
terms of prevention and you can see that
terms of prevention and you can see that if you invest $1.00 in prevention for
if you invest $1.00 in prevention for
if you invest $1.00 in prevention for wind or flood when that flood happens
wind or flood when that flood happens
wind or flood when that flood happens you will get back five dollars in return
you will get back five dollars in return
you will get back five dollars in return so prevention is really worth it it’s a
so prevention is really worth it it’s a
so prevention is really worth it it’s a little less for earthquakes but still
little less for earthquakes but still
little less for earthquakes but still you get a return so we know that
you get a return so we know that
you get a return so we know that resilience works we know we have seen it
resilience works we know we have seen it
resilience works we know we have seen it in the most important factor which is
in the most important factor which is
in the most important factor which is the loss of life and what you see here
the loss of life and what you see here
the loss of life and what you see here is a comparison between two earthquakes
is a comparison between two earthquakes
is a comparison between two earthquakes that happen in 2010 on your right there
that happen in 2010 on your right there
that happen in 2010 on your right there is the mega earthquake of Chile
is the mega earthquake of Chile
is the mega earthquake of Chile magnitude 9 and on the left is a high D
magnitude 9 and on the left is a high D
magnitude 9 and on the left is a high D earthquake which was significantly
earthquake which was significantly
earthquake which was significantly smaller magnitude than the Chile
smaller magnitude than the Chile
smaller magnitude than the Chile what you see is the percentage of people
what you see is the percentage of people
what you see is the percentage of people who felt the earthquake very strongly
who felt the earthquake very strongly
who felt the earthquake very strongly and confirmed by Facebook and that lost
and confirmed by Facebook and that lost
and confirmed by Facebook and that lost their lives so in Chile there was only
their lives so in Chile there was only
their lives so in Chile there was only 0.1% of the people in the epicentral
0.1% of the people in the epicentral
0.1% of the people in the epicentral area if they’re large intensity area
area if they’re large intensity area
area if they’re large intensity area that lost their lives versus 11% in
that lost their lives versus 11% in
that lost their lives versus 11% in Haiti in a significantly smaller event
Haiti in a significantly smaller event
Haiti in a significantly smaller event Chile has good earthquake codes they
Chile has good earthquake codes they
Chile has good earthquake codes they design for earthquakes in Haiti there is
design for earthquakes in Haiti there is
design for earthquakes in Haiti there is it’s a country under development and
it’s a country under development and
it’s a country under development and they don’t have good codes and good
they don’t have good codes and good
they don’t have good codes and good construction so it’s proven that
construction so it’s proven that
construction so it’s proven that resiliency works so why are we doing
resiliency works so why are we doing
resiliency works so why are we doing better we have all these tools all these
better we have all these tools all these
better we have all these tools all these math predictions we can predict hazard
math predictions we can predict hazard
math predictions we can predict hazard floods tsunamis and all these what are
floods tsunamis and all these what are
floods tsunamis and all these what are we missing we are missing something
we missing we are missing something
we missing we are missing something about the human factor it is not wearing
about the human factor it is not wearing
about the human factor it is not wearing the probabilities I showed you and this
the probabilities I showed you and this
the probabilities I showed you and this is a very graphic example from the
is a very graphic example from the
is a very graphic example from the earthquake in New Zealand in
earthquake in New Zealand in
earthquake in New Zealand in Christchurch actually to put a series of
Christchurch actually to put a series of
Christchurch actually to put a series of earthquakes from 2010 to 2011 that
earthquakes from 2010 to 2011 that
earthquakes from 2010 to 2011 that exhibited very impressive continuous
exhibited very impressive continuous
exhibited very impressive continuous effects of liquefaction and many of you
effects of liquefaction and many of you
effects of liquefaction and many of you know what that is you can function
know what that is you can function
know what that is you can function essentially is a phenomenon where your
essentially is a phenomenon where your
essentially is a phenomenon where your solely turns into something like moving
solely turns into something like moving
solely turns into something like moving sign liquid Sun because of the strong
sign liquid Sun because of the strong
sign liquid Sun because of the strong ground shaking and it can flood your
ground shaking and it can flood your
ground shaking and it can flood your area this is a house in the first
area this is a house in the first
area this is a house in the first earthquake of Christchurch in September
earthquake of Christchurch in September
earthquake of Christchurch in September of 2010 that Professor Jonathan Bray
of 2010 that Professor Jonathan Bray
of 2010 that Professor Jonathan Bray from Berkeley kept monitoring over time
from Berkeley kept monitoring over time
from Berkeley kept monitoring over time this house proved that it satisfied life
this house proved that it satisfied life
this house proved that it satisfied life safety as I described eg there were no
safety as I described eg there were no
safety as I described eg there were no crabs there was nothing like that but he
crabs there was nothing like that but he
crabs there was nothing like that but he the port’s sustained liquefaction you
the port’s sustained liquefaction you
the port’s sustained liquefaction you can see that from all the water that is
can see that from all the water that is
can see that from all the water that is around there a bigger earthquake
around there a bigger earthquake
around there a bigger earthquake happened after this owner had fixed what
happened after this owner had fixed what
happened after this owner had fixed what happened there
happened there
happened there and in February a bigger earthquake
and in February a bigger earthquake
and in February a bigger earthquake happened and a faction happen again and
happened and a faction happen again and
happened and a faction happen again and even worse what you see as these bubbles
even worse what you see as these bubbles
even worse what you see as these bubbles is sun boils that happen after local
is sun boils that happen after local
is sun boils that happen after local faction well the owner said that now I’m
faction well the owner said that now I’m
faction well the owner said that now I’m going to go and put pavers and make it
going to go and put pavers and make it
going to go and put pavers and make it stronger and pave it so in a bridge we
stronger and pave it so in a bridge we
stronger and pave it so in a bridge we had another earthquake and actually I
had another earthquake and actually I
had another earthquake and actually I think the papers probably made it worse
think the papers probably made it worse
think the papers probably made it worse and he had even more liquefaction and
and he had even more liquefaction and
and he had even more liquefaction and then in June 2011 he put different
then in June 2011 he put different
then in June 2011 he put different papers put asphalt whatever he did part
papers put asphalt whatever he did part
papers put asphalt whatever he did part 1 and part 2 so what I’m asking
1 and part 2 so what I’m asking
1 and part 2 so what I’m asking life safety is still ok right his house
life safety is still ok right his house
life safety is still ok right his house is working there are no cracks
is working there are no cracks
is working there are no cracks is this a quality of life is this what
is this a quality of life is this what
is this a quality of life is this what he wants he’s now in a flood zone where
he wants he’s now in a flood zone where
he wants he’s now in a flood zone where he wasn’t before he went and asked for
he wasn’t before he went and asked for
he wasn’t before he went and asked for money to repair the his house and the
money to repair the his house and the
money to repair the his house and the earthquake insurance told him it’s a
earthquake insurance told him it’s a
earthquake insurance told him it’s a flood problem and the flood insurance
flood problem and the flood insurance
flood problem and the flood insurance told him it’s not my fault the
told him it’s not my fault the
told him it’s not my fault the earthquake created the liquefaction that
earthquake created the liquefaction that
earthquake created the liquefaction that made you in a free heart zone and now
made you in a free heart zone and now
made you in a free heart zone and now you’re in flood zone so what is this
you’re in flood zone so what is this
you’re in flood zone so what is this person going to do I don’t know if you
person going to do I don’t know if you
person going to do I don’t know if you guys moved yet from that house they just
guys moved yet from that house they just
guys moved yet from that house they just had an earthquake a couple of months ago
had an earthquake a couple of months ago
had an earthquake a couple of months ago so
are we really bouncing back with these
are we really bouncing back with these concepts of life safety this is a
concepts of life safety this is a
concepts of life safety this is a studies that I’m showing this a cover
studies that I’m showing this a cover
studies that I’m showing this a cover from the time magazine in from the
from the time magazine in from the
from the time magazine in from the kaabah earthquake in 1995 showing the
kaabah earthquake in 1995 showing the
kaabah earthquake in 1995 showing the human bein of a natural disaster in
human bein of a natural disaster in
human bein of a natural disaster in their studies studying people and how
their studies studying people and how
their studies studying people and how they bounce back after big earthquakes
they bounce back after big earthquakes
they bounce back after big earthquakes after Koba and after Fukushima and what
after Koba and after Fukushima and what
after Koba and after Fukushima and what you see is that years after the event
you see is that years after the event
you see is that years after the event about half the people have PTSD
about half the people have PTSD
about half the people have PTSD post-traumatic stress disorders and more
post-traumatic stress disorders and more
post-traumatic stress disorders and more than half of them have some form of
than half of them have some form of
than half of them have some form of depression and factors that they use
depression and factors that they use
depression and factors that they use instead of the numerical things they use
instead of the numerical things they use
instead of the numerical things they use different factors of behavior how many
different factors of behavior how many
different factors of behavior how many people started drinking how many people
people started drinking how many people
people started drinking how many people started exercising how many people lost
started exercising how many people lost
started exercising how many people lost their jobs and never found them found
their jobs and never found them found
their jobs and never found them found another job how many people lost their
another job how many people lost their
another job how many people lost their little coffee shop that they gather with
little coffee shop that they gather with
little coffee shop that they gather with their friends after work and what made
their friends after work and what made
their friends after work and what made them happy and these are the factors
them happy and these are the factors
them happy and these are the factors that we as engineers completely neglect
that we as engineers completely neglect
that we as engineers completely neglect in the codes is the human factors and
in the codes is the human factors and
in the codes is the human factors and the long-term recovery when we talk
the long-term recovery when we talk
the long-term recovery when we talk about resilience so what I’m getting to
about resilience so what I’m getting to
about resilience so what I’m getting to and I was told that many of you may not
and I was told that many of you may not
and I was told that many of you may not understand what first analysis means it
understand what first analysis means it
understand what first analysis means it means what the hell are we talking about
means what the hell are we talking about
means what the hell are we talking about what is the elephant in the room here
what is the elephant in the room here
what is the elephant in the room here who are we working for I’m an engineer
who are we working for I’m an engineer
who are we working for I’m an engineer Who am I supposed to report to am I
Who am I supposed to report to am I
Who am I supposed to report to am I supposed to report to my boss am I
supposed to report to my boss am I
supposed to report to my boss am I supposed to report to the government
supposed to report to the government
supposed to report to the government that makes these codes or is my
that makes these codes or is my
that makes these codes or is my obligation to a pre protect societies
obligation to a pre protect societies
obligation to a pre protect societies and I think that we can do a very good
and I think that we can do a very good
and I think that we can do a very good job complying with codes but we cannot
job complying with codes but we cannot
job complying with codes but we cannot neglect this other part so you know
neglect this other part so you know
neglect this other part so you know sometimes we will look at our own little
sometimes we will look at our own little
sometimes we will look at our own little thing and we’re missing the big picture
thing and we’re missing the big picture
thing and we’re missing the big picture this is what resilience is all about is
this is what resilience is all about is
this is what resilience is all about is about the big picture
about the big picture
about the big picture and the big picture in my view involves
and the big picture in my view involves
and the big picture in my view involves understanding what hazards we are
understanding what hazards we are
understanding what hazards we are exposed to and we have a lot of science
exposed to and we have a lot of science
exposed to and we have a lot of science and understanding and very good tools to
and understanding and very good tools to
and understanding and very good tools to understand that and make all these
understand that and make all these
understand that and make all these probabilities and all that and then use
probabilities and all that and then use
probabilities and all that and then use technologies preventive measures that
technologies preventive measures that
technologies preventive measures that could be multidisciplinary in order to
could be multidisciplinary in order to
could be multidisciplinary in order to achieve resilience and resilience is
achieve resilience and resilience is
achieve resilience and resilience is something that is a decision-making
something that is a decision-making
something that is a decision-making about what we want to do about this
about what we want to do about this
about what we want to do about this community do we want it to last five
community do we want it to last five
community do we want it to last five years do we want it to to be perfect
years do we want it to to be perfect
years do we want it to to be perfect after 2,500 years but that’s not my
after 2,500 years but that’s not my
after 2,500 years but that’s not my problem as an engineer that is on a
problem as an engineer that is on a
problem as an engineer that is on a higher level of a stakeholder or
higher level of a stakeholder or
higher level of a stakeholder or decision makers but I need to give the
decision makers but I need to give the
decision makers but I need to give the options to these people and clearly
options to these people and clearly
options to these people and clearly explain to them how much they’re gonna
explain to them how much they’re gonna
explain to them how much they’re gonna cost and where they have to invest so
cost and where they have to invest so
cost and where they have to invest so there are some key things that we need
there are some key things that we need
there are some key things that we need to do it moving towards that is to
to do it moving towards that is to
to do it moving towards that is to collaborate educate think simple in
collaborate educate think simple in
collaborate educate think simple in order to make decisions and risk which
order to make decisions and risk which
order to make decisions and risk which is a part of a decision-making always is
is a part of a decision-making always is
is a part of a decision-making always is coupled with a reward so you can have
coupled with a reward so you can have
coupled with a reward so you can have the salad and get long-term health or
the salad and get long-term health or
the salad and get long-term health or you can have the chocolate cake and get
you can have the chocolate cake and get
you can have the chocolate cake and get the short-term Mirage of the chocolate
the short-term Mirage of the chocolate
the short-term Mirage of the chocolate they’re both acceptable solutions to
they’re both acceptable solutions to
they’re both acceptable solutions to your decision right but there are
your decision right but there are
your decision right but there are different consequences this is what
different consequences this is what
different consequences this is what resiliency has to do give you decisions
resiliency has to do give you decisions
resiliency has to do give you decisions and give you what the consequences are
and give you what the consequences are
and give you what the consequences are so that you can make educated decisions
so that you can make educated decisions
so that you can make educated decisions and we have to think think before we
and we have to think think before we
and we have to think think before we blindly look at one problem and people
blindly look at one problem and people
blindly look at one problem and people have very short memories of events that
have very short memories of events that
have very short memories of events that happen so after Hurricane sandy FEMA
happen so after Hurricane sandy FEMA
happen so after Hurricane sandy FEMA came with new flood maps and they asked
came with new flood maps and they asked
came with new flood maps and they asked that houses are raised above the flood
that houses are raised above the flood
that houses are raised above the flood level so that they are protected from
level so that they are protected from
level so that they are protected from the next flood which is great look at
the next flood which is great look at
the next flood which is great look at this house multi dollar dollar house in
this house multi dollar dollar house in
this house multi dollar dollar house in a very nice area in the water
a very nice area in the water
a very nice area in the water this flag protected and many of you in
this flag protected and many of you in
this flag protected and many of you in this room I hope that you know what the
this room I hope that you know what the
this room I hope that you know what the soft story is in they’re going to do
soft story is in they’re going to do
soft story is in they’re going to do very bad even in a small earthquakes it
very bad even in a small earthquakes it
very bad even in a small earthquakes it will cut its legs off it’s not made to
will cut its legs off it’s not made to
will cut its legs off it’s not made to resist the other hazard that it could be
resist the other hazard that it could be
resist the other hazard that it could be exposed to or even wind so we have to
exposed to or even wind so we have to
exposed to or even wind so we have to think about multi hazards we also have
think about multi hazards we also have
think about multi hazards we also have to think and respect nature this is a
to think and respect nature this is a
to think and respect nature this is a bridge in teaching Taiwan that was
bridge in teaching Taiwan that was
bridge in teaching Taiwan that was designed according to code and it was
designed according to code and it was
designed according to code and it was perfectly designed but the fault that
perfectly designed but the fault that
perfectly designed but the fault that was running through it was not respected
was running through it was not respected
was running through it was not respected so it failed miserably in that
so it failed miserably in that
so it failed miserably in that earthquake and also in earthquakes not
earthquake and also in earthquakes not
earthquake and also in earthquakes not only in earthquakes do we have to make
only in earthquakes do we have to make
only in earthquakes do we have to make things stronger to make them better
things stronger to make them better
things stronger to make them better that’s a perception really do we need to
that’s a perception really do we need to
that’s a perception really do we need to do that or do we need to think
do that or do we need to think
do that or do we need to think resiliency do we need to think out of
resiliency do we need to think out of
resiliency do we need to think out of the box it takes minds that think
the box it takes minds that think
the box it takes minds that think differently and I call for you to start
differently and I call for you to start
differently and I call for you to start thinking differently because it is a
thinking differently because it is a
thinking differently because it is a very complex problem this bridge in the
very complex problem this bridge in the
very complex problem this bridge in the foki eye section in the cassini
foki eye section in the cassini
foki eye section in the cassini expressway in Japan that you saw
expressway in Japan that you saw
expressway in Japan that you saw collapsed because we try to fix it into
collapsed because we try to fix it into
collapsed because we try to fix it into the ground with very
the ground with very
the ground with very [Music]
[Music]
[Music] connection over there and eventually as
connection over there and eventually as
connection over there and eventually as you saw before it could not have been
you saw before it could not have been
you saw before it could not have been designed and stronger than that I mean
designed and stronger than that I mean
designed and stronger than that I mean you can happen so differently there has
you can happen so differently there has
you can happen so differently there has to be somebody who thinks out of the box
to be somebody who thinks out of the box
to be somebody who thinks out of the box I hope it’s going to be you it in this
I hope it’s going to be you it in this
I hope it’s going to be you it in this case it is my teacher and mentor who
case it is my teacher and mentor who
case it is my teacher and mentor who sits here George pizzetta’s who thought
sits here George pizzetta’s who thought
sits here George pizzetta’s who thought that okay I will under design it make it
that okay I will under design it make it
that okay I will under design it make it smaller allow the soil to give in and
smaller allow the soil to give in and
smaller allow the soil to give in and that way I’m going to relieve of all
that way I’m going to relieve of all
that way I’m going to relieve of all this pressure that is right there in
this pressure that is right there in
this pressure that is right there in that connection that way I’m going to
that connection that way I’m going to
that connection that way I’m going to prevent polar collapse but also minimize
prevent polar collapse but also minimize
prevent polar collapse but also minimize the seismic damage and then I can go and
the seismic damage and then I can go and
the seismic damage and then I can go and fix it and there are ways that we have
fix it and there are ways that we have
fix it and there are ways that we have as engineers to fix things like that so
as engineers to fix things like that so
as engineers to fix things like that so this is a different way of looking
this is a different way of looking
this is a different way of looking things thinking out of the box out of
things thinking out of the box out of
things thinking out of the box out of your comfort zone it’s not easy to apply
your comfort zone it’s not easy to apply
your comfort zone it’s not easy to apply these things so what I want to summarize
these things so what I want to summarize
these things so what I want to summarize and what I said that resilience is a
and what I said that resilience is a
and what I said that resilience is a very difficult problem and we can carve
very difficult problem and we can carve
very difficult problem and we can carve our engineering tools in order to create
our engineering tools in order to create
our engineering tools in order to create future cities working together though
future cities working together though
future cities working together though with the architects with the planners
with the architects with the planners
with the architects with the planners with the test take holders it’s a
with the test take holders it’s a
with the test take holders it’s a continuous dialogue because everybody
continuous dialogue because everybody
continuous dialogue because everybody speaks their own language and have their
speaks their own language and have their
speaks their own language and have their own little interest and engineering is
own little interest and engineering is
own little interest and engineering is just a tiny part of that we have to
just a tiny part of that we have to
just a tiny part of that we have to understand that resilience is not the
understand that resilience is not the
understand that resilience is not the answer to everything it’s just a part of
answer to everything it’s just a part of
answer to everything it’s just a part of a puzzle the puzzle is much bigger than
a puzzle the puzzle is much bigger than
a puzzle the puzzle is much bigger than that
that
that and the challenge that we have because
and the challenge that we have because
and the challenge that we have because we like numbers and that’s what we do is
we like numbers and that’s what we do is
we like numbers and that’s what we do is to translate this desire that we have
to translate this desire that we have
to translate this desire that we have for resilient communities into terms
for resilient communities into terms
for resilient communities into terms that we can put into codes and also to
that we can put into codes and also to
that we can put into codes and also to consider how aged our structures are in
consider how aged our structures are in
consider how aged our structures are in our infrastructure and eventually give
our infrastructure and eventually give
our infrastructure and eventually give this decision tools to the people that
this decision tools to the people that
this decision tools to the people that are higher than us and that requires a
are higher than us and that requires a
are higher than us and that requires a holistic approach with education
holistic approach with education
holistic approach with education communication
communication
communication and the to wait trust communication
and the to wait trust communication
and the to wait trust communication between the government and the people
between the government and the people
between the government and the people and the people have to be part of this
and the people have to be part of this
and the people have to be part of this decision making and have to be part of
decision making and have to be part of
decision making and have to be part of these numbers that we put there and of
these numbers that we put there and of
these numbers that we put there and of course create economic growth which is a
course create economic growth which is a
course create economic growth which is a bigger picture and health care and
bigger picture and health care and
bigger picture and health care and overall democracy so thinking’s simple I
overall democracy so thinking’s simple I
overall democracy so thinking’s simple I would like to quote the Nobel laureate
would like to quote the Nobel laureate
would like to quote the Nobel laureate avi Sasson letís in terms of life
avi Sasson letís in terms of life
avi Sasson letís in terms of life quality who said that if you deconstruct
quality who said that if you deconstruct
quality who said that if you deconstruct Greece at the end you will be left with
Greece at the end you will be left with
Greece at the end you will be left with an olive tree agrarian and say bored and
an olive tree agrarian and say bored and
an olive tree agrarian and say bored and really seized in the lava and so tell us
really seized in the lava and so tell us
really seized in the lava and so tell us the mean is Monica Ravi Annabelle
the mean is Monica Ravi Annabelle
the mean is Monica Ravi Annabelle Kamiya I am think we have to look at
Kamiya I am think we have to look at
Kamiya I am think we have to look at things differently and think of our
things differently and think of our
things differently and think of our human as a factor of engineering
human as a factor of engineering
human as a factor of engineering decision and engineering design thank
decision and engineering design thank
decision and engineering design thank you very much
you very much
you very much [Applause]
”
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