I was raised in America’s heartland when I was two years old my sister suffered a
I was two years old my sister suffered a
I was two years old my sister suffered a profound brain injury at birth she was
profound brain injury at birth she was
profound brain injury at birth she was diagnosed with the most severe cases
diagnosed with the most severe cases
diagnosed with the most severe cases cerebral palsy anyone in my community
cerebral palsy anyone in my community
cerebral palsy anyone in my community had ever seen the experts gave her a
had ever seen the experts gave her a
had ever seen the experts gave her a year to live my family was devastated
when she turned two years old
when she turned two years old the experts advised my parents that she
the experts advised my parents that she
the experts advised my parents that she wouldn’t live past five it seemed that
wouldn’t live past five it seemed that
wouldn’t live past five it seemed that the Heartland didn’t have a big heart
the Heartland didn’t have a big heart
the Heartland didn’t have a big heart for the disabled my parents had to fight
for the disabled my parents had to fight
for the disabled my parents had to fight for my daughter my sister’s future from
for my daughter my sister’s future from
for my daughter my sister’s future from the moment she came home from the
the moment she came home from the
the moment she came home from the hospital my parents battled state and
hospital my parents battled state and
hospital my parents battled state and local bureaucracies to demand due
local bureaucracies to demand due
local bureaucracies to demand due process access to health care humane
process access to health care humane
process access to health care humane treatment for my sister my parents did
treatment for my sister my parents did
treatment for my sister my parents did what many would do in a similar
what many would do in a similar
what many would do in a similar situation they became activists they
situation they became activists they
situation they became activists they organized other families with disabled
organized other families with disabled
organized other families with disabled children to advocate for new laws better
children to advocate for new laws better
children to advocate for new laws better funding broader social acceptance for
funding broader social acceptance for
funding broader social acceptance for the disabled despite the experts and the
the disabled despite the experts and the
the disabled despite the experts and the bureaucrats my little sister Caroline
she turned 45 this year for the record
she turned 45 this year for the record she rocks this story is part of me it
she rocks this story is part of me it
she rocks this story is part of me it shaped the way I see the world but it’s
shaped the way I see the world but it’s
shaped the way I see the world but it’s not unique many of you have similar
not unique many of you have similar
not unique many of you have similar stories this story of my childhood
stories this story of my childhood
stories this story of my childhood taught me to believe that the future can
taught me to believe that the future can
taught me to believe that the future can be shaped like most of what I learned in
be shaped like most of what I learned in
be shaped like most of what I learned in my childhood I did not truly understand
my childhood I did not truly understand
my childhood I did not truly understand this lesson until I was an adult it was
this lesson until I was an adult it was
this lesson until I was an adult it was in graduate school when I had the
in graduate school when I had the
in graduate school when I had the one-two punch of learning something new
one-two punch of learning something new
one-two punch of learning something new from an old memory I was studying a set
from an old memory I was studying a set
from an old memory I was studying a set of case studies that that were about how
of case studies that that were about how
of case studies that that were about how policies can shape the future and then
policies can shape the future and then
policies can shape the future and then the insights came crashing down for my
the insights came crashing down for my
the insights came crashing down for my childhood memories
childhood memories
childhood memories the first punch had me saying oh yeah
the first punch had me saying oh yeah
the first punch had me saying oh yeah the future it’s so obvious it can be
the future it’s so obvious it can be
the future it’s so obvious it can be shaped my parents showed me that and
shaped my parents showed me that and
shaped my parents showed me that and then came the second punch if it’s so
then came the second punch if it’s so
then came the second punch if it’s so obvious why don’t we do it I’ve yet to
obvious why don’t we do it I’ve yet to
obvious why don’t we do it I’ve yet to find it successful and satisfying answer
find it successful and satisfying answer
find it successful and satisfying answer to this question but this is where my
to this question but this is where my
to this question but this is where my work and futures research began for the
work and futures research began for the
work and futures research began for the last 20 years I’ve spent researching and
last 20 years I’ve spent researching and
last 20 years I’ve spent researching and exploring hundreds of possible futures
exploring hundreds of possible futures
exploring hundreds of possible futures for foundations universities
for foundations universities
for foundations universities government’s nonprofits and individuals
government’s nonprofits and individuals
government’s nonprofits and individuals today I’d like to share some things I’ve
today I’d like to share some things I’ve
today I’d like to share some things I’ve learned about the future the first thing
learned about the future the first thing
learned about the future the first thing I discovered is that the future cannot
I discovered is that the future cannot
I discovered is that the future cannot be observed turns out that the future
be observed turns out that the future
be observed turns out that the future doesn’t exist it’s a concept and as a
doesn’t exist it’s a concept and as a
doesn’t exist it’s a concept and as a researcher I know that you cannot
researcher I know that you cannot
researcher I know that you cannot collect data on something that doesn’t
collect data on something that doesn’t
collect data on something that doesn’t exist however what do exist and can be
exist however what do exist and can be
exist however what do exist and can be studied are people’s perceptions of the
studied are people’s perceptions of the
studied are people’s perceptions of the future under the right circumstances
future under the right circumstances
future under the right circumstances these perceptions can be collected and
these perceptions can be collected and
these perceptions can be collected and studied that’s what I do I study how and
studied that’s what I do I study how and
studied that’s what I do I study how and what people think about the future I
what people think about the future I
what people think about the future I study people’s ideas about the future
study people’s ideas about the future
study people’s ideas about the future another thing I learned
another thing I learned
another thing I learned is that there are relatively few ways to
is that there are relatively few ways to
is that there are relatively few ways to think about the future like the past the
think about the future like the past the
think about the future like the past the future is a construct in our mind
future is a construct in our mind
future is a construct in our mind thought is required to access the past
thought is required to access the past
thought is required to access the past and the future we reflect on the past
and the future we reflect on the past
and the future we reflect on the past and we project into the future there are
and we project into the future there are
and we project into the future there are a million ways to think about the past
a million ways to think about the past
a million ways to think about the past we have blogs Diaries cable news books
we have blogs Diaries cable news books
we have blogs Diaries cable news books poems songs the History Channel all of
poems songs the History Channel all of
poems songs the History Channel all of these help us think about and process
these help us think about and process
these help us think about and process what has happened beyond science fiction
what has happened beyond science fiction
what has happened beyond science fiction forecasts and of course the magic 8-ball
forecasts and of course the magic 8-ball
forecasts and of course the magic 8-ball there are relatively fewer ways to think
there are relatively fewer ways to think
there are relatively fewer ways to think about and process what will happen what
about and process what will happen what
about and process what will happen what can happen seems that we would rather
can happen seems that we would rather
can happen seems that we would rather reflect and project one way to think
reflect and project one way to think
reflect and project one way to think about the future is visioning those who
about the future is visioning those who
about the future is visioning those who want to invent better conditions those
want to invent better conditions those
want to invent better conditions those who want to invent better futures need a
who want to invent better futures need a
who want to invent better futures need a way to focus on and achieve the
way to focus on and achieve the
way to focus on and achieve the conditions they want they need a vision
conditions they want they need a vision
conditions they want they need a vision a vision is a framework a mental GPS
a vision is a framework a mental GPS
a vision is a framework a mental GPS system that guides us to better future
system that guides us to better future
system that guides us to better future conditions it’s what you need to be
conditions it’s what you need to be
conditions it’s what you need to be intentional without a vision there’s
intentional without a vision there’s
intentional without a vision there’s nothing to be intentional about I can
nothing to be intentional about I can
nothing to be intentional about I can tell you this with or without a vision
tell you this with or without a vision
tell you this with or without a vision your future is on its way and having a
your future is on its way and having a
your future is on its way and having a vision can give you some control my
vision can give you some control my
vision can give you some control my parents vision for my sister allowed
parents vision for my sister allowed
parents vision for my sister allowed them to be intentional and effective in
them to be intentional and effective in
them to be intentional and effective in shaping not only her future but my
shaping not only her future but my
shaping not only her future but my family’s future
visions are built using ideas about the
visions are built using ideas about the future the better the ideas the better
future the better the ideas the better
future the better the ideas the better the vision so there’s good reason to
the vision so there’s good reason to
the vision so there’s good reason to focus on how you think about the future
focus on how you think about the future
focus on how you think about the future after all that’s where your ideas about
after all that’s where your ideas about
after all that’s where your ideas about the future will come from so ask
the future will come from so ask
the future will come from so ask yourself how do you think about the
yourself how do you think about the
yourself how do you think about the future not what do you think about the
future not what do you think about the
future not what do you think about the future how how do you do it and for
future how how do you do it and for
future how how do you do it and for extra credit soulful why why do you
extra credit soulful why why do you
extra credit soulful why why do you think about the future or why not
think about the future or why not
think about the future or why not why wouldn’t you think about the future
why wouldn’t you think about the future
why wouldn’t you think about the future not everyone is good at thinking about
not everyone is good at thinking about
not everyone is good at thinking about the future this is something I’ve
the future this is something I’ve
the future this is something I’ve noticed over time and clearly I’m not
noticed over time and clearly I’m not
noticed over time and clearly I’m not the only one to have noticed a team at
the only one to have noticed a team at
the only one to have noticed a team at behavioral researchers in 2007 showed
behavioral researchers in 2007 showed
behavioral researchers in 2007 showed that the decisions we make for our
that the decisions we make for our
that the decisions we make for our future selves are more similar to the
future selves are more similar to the
future selves are more similar to the decisions we make for other people and
decisions we make for other people and
decisions we make for other people and significantly different than the
significantly different than the
significantly different than the decisions we make for ourselves right
decisions we make for ourselves right
decisions we make for ourselves right now what this means is that we are more
now what this means is that we are more
now what this means is that we are more concerned about who we are right now
concerned about who we are right now
concerned about who we are right now then who we will be in the future this
then who we will be in the future this
then who we will be in the future this is called temporal discounting we
is called temporal discounting we
is called temporal discounting we discount the future we tend not to think
discount the future we tend not to think
discount the future we tend not to think about the needs once and values of the
about the needs once and values of the
about the needs once and values of the people we will become well because
people we will become well because
people we will become well because that’s not who we are right now another
that’s not who we are right now another
that’s not who we are right now another team of researchers built on this study
team of researchers built on this study
team of researchers built on this study this time using MRI technologies to
this time using MRI technologies to
this time using MRI technologies to study activities in brain act in the
study activities in brain act in the
study activities in brain act in the brain what they discovered is that our
brain what they discovered is that our
brain what they discovered is that our connection with our future self weakens
connection with our future self weakens
connection with our future self weakens as the time horizon increases further
as the time horizon increases further
as the time horizon increases further out less connection this is called self
out less connection this is called self
out less connection this is called self continuity the further into the future
continuity the further into the future
continuity the further into the future we envision the more likely rule and we
we envision the more likely rule and we
we envision the more likely rule and we will see ourselves and think about
will see ourselves and think about
will see ourselves and think about ourselves our future selves as someone
ourselves our future selves as someone
ourselves our future selves as someone else why does this matter
I think it’s rather straightforward the
I think it’s rather straightforward the decisions you make the actions you take
decisions you make the actions you take
decisions you make the actions you take have a direct impact on the conditions
have a direct impact on the conditions
have a direct impact on the conditions of your life and the options available
of your life and the options available
of your life and the options available to you in the future my parents the
to you in the future my parents the
to you in the future my parents the decisions they made the actions they
decisions they made the actions they
decisions they made the actions they took from the first day of my sister’s
took from the first day of my sister’s
took from the first day of my sister’s life led to a much better future for my
life led to a much better future for my
life led to a much better future for my sister than what the experts had in mind
sister than what the experts had in mind
sister than what the experts had in mind in 2016 the Institute for the future
in 2016 the Institute for the future
in 2016 the Institute for the future conducted a survey with 2800 US adults
conducted a survey with 2800 US adults
conducted a survey with 2800 US adults the survey results suggest that more
the survey results suggest that more
the survey results suggest that more than 60% of the people we live and work
than 60% of the people we live and work
than 60% of the people we live and work with do not regularly think about their
with do not regularly think about their
with do not regularly think about their lives five years old many of us make
lives five years old many of us make
lives five years old many of us make important decisions and take
important decisions and take
important decisions and take consequential actions every day with
consequential actions every day with
consequential actions every day with little or no consideration of the
little or no consideration of the
little or no consideration of the foreseeable future and when we do think
foreseeable future and when we do think
foreseeable future and when we do think about our future we may not think about
about our future we may not think about
about our future we may not think about it as our own hopefully it’s only those
it as our own hopefully it’s only those
it as our own hopefully it’s only those who regularly think about the future who
who regularly think about the future who
who regularly think about the future who are making all the important decisions
so many of the challenges we face with
so many of the challenges we face with our environment our economy our culture
our environment our economy our culture
our environment our economy our culture our government our politics are due in
our government our politics are due in
our government our politics are due in large part to the lack of a coherent
large part to the lack of a coherent
large part to the lack of a coherent vision for the future think about the
vision for the future think about the
vision for the future think about the problems that we face as individuals as
problems that we face as individuals as
problems that we face as individuals as a community as a country as inhabitants
a community as a country as inhabitants
a community as a country as inhabitants of planet Earth how many of these
of planet Earth how many of these
of planet Earth how many of these problems seem preventable if we had made
problems seem preventable if we had made
problems seem preventable if we had made decisions using an effective
decisions using an effective
decisions using an effective well-thought-out vision to build better
well-thought-out vision to build better
well-thought-out vision to build better fit to build better futures we need
fit to build better futures we need
fit to build better futures we need better ways to build visions so many of
better ways to build visions so many of
better ways to build visions so many of the problems that we face can easily be
the problems that we face can easily be
the problems that we face can easily be understood if we can perceive and
understood if we can perceive and
understood if we can perceive and appreciate the fact that we don’t just
appreciate the fact that we don’t just
appreciate the fact that we don’t just live in our own futures
we live in a space where we share
we live in a space where we share futures with other people it would be
futures with other people it would be
futures with other people it would be very simple if each of us were just
very simple if each of us were just
very simple if each of us were just better at thinking about our own
better at thinking about our own
better at thinking about our own individual futures where we could apply
individual futures where we could apply
individual futures where we could apply those insights to our own decisions and
those insights to our own decisions and
those insights to our own decisions and our own actions unfortunately we’re cast
our own actions unfortunately we’re cast
our own actions unfortunately we’re cast in a web of overlapping futures that we
in a web of overlapping futures that we
in a web of overlapping futures that we share with others people at work people
share with others people at work people
share with others people at work people at church members of your family your
at church members of your family your
at church members of your family your neighbors people who share your favorite
neighbors people who share your favorite
neighbors people who share your favorite Trail you share a future as many
Trail you share a future as many
Trail you share a future as many different groups and when any of those
different groups and when any of those
different groups and when any of those groups want to shape their future they
groups want to shape their future they
groups want to shape their future they will probably develop and pursue a
will probably develop and pursue a
will probably develop and pursue a vision what I have learned about vision
vision what I have learned about vision
vision what I have learned about vision based change is that the best most
based change is that the best most
based change is that the best most effective visions are aspirational
effective visions are aspirational
effective visions are aspirational inclusive responsive and most
inclusive responsive and most
inclusive responsive and most importantly shared it seems to me that
importantly shared it seems to me that
importantly shared it seems to me that every organization every school every
every organization every school every
every organization every school every government should have a vision that
government should have a vision that
government should have a vision that inspires its members that appeals to the
inspires its members that appeals to the
inspires its members that appeals to the needs and values of the people involved
needs and values of the people involved
needs and values of the people involved and is broadly shared why don’t we have
and is broadly shared why don’t we have
and is broadly shared why don’t we have that to build better futures we do need
that to build better futures we do need
that to build better futures we do need better ways to build visions problems
better ways to build visions problems
better ways to build visions problems like global climate change the cycle of
like global climate change the cycle of
like global climate change the cycle of poverty cultural divisive nough
poverty cultural divisive nough
poverty cultural divisive nough structural inequities are real and they
structural inequities are real and they
structural inequities are real and they demand our attention well the pro the
demand our attention well the pro the
demand our attention well the pro the seeds of these problems were planted
seeds of these problems were planted
seeds of these problems were planted long ago the solutions can only be
long ago the solutions can only be
long ago the solutions can only be crafted in the future and if we don’t
crafted in the future and if we don’t
crafted in the future and if we don’t want or can’t connect with the future
want or can’t connect with the future
want or can’t connect with the future these problems will never be solved oh
these problems will never be solved oh
these problems will never be solved oh look houston floods in 1935 my parents
look houston floods in 1935 my parents
look houston floods in 1935 my parents committed to a vision that Caroline my
committed to a vision that Caroline my
committed to a vision that Caroline my little sister would not be
little sister would not be
little sister would not be institutionalized
that her rights as a community member
that her rights as a community member will be respected and she’ll be treated
will be respected and she’ll be treated
will be respected and she’ll be treated with dignity my parents created a shared
with dignity my parents created a shared
with dignity my parents created a shared vision within my community that included
vision within my community that included
vision within my community that included the disabled that included people like
the disabled that included people like
the disabled that included people like my sister visioning works it makes a
my sister visioning works it makes a
my sister visioning works it makes a difference but it’s not easy that’s why
difference but it’s not easy that’s why
difference but it’s not easy that’s why so many groups and organizations don’t
so many groups and organizations don’t
so many groups and organizations don’t have an organ an effective vision it’s
have an organ an effective vision it’s
have an organ an effective vision it’s hard what if a group of people could
hard what if a group of people could
hard what if a group of people could easily access their ideas about the
easily access their ideas about the
easily access their ideas about the future they share together so they could
future they share together so they could
future they share together so they could make better decisions build shared
make better decisions build shared
make better decisions build shared visions take smarter actions that’s what
visions take smarter actions that’s what
visions take smarter actions that’s what I try to do I help people think about
I try to do I help people think about
I try to do I help people think about the their futures
the their futures
the their futures I collect ideas about the futures
I collect ideas about the futures
I collect ideas about the futures through individual interviews where
through individual interviews where
through individual interviews where participants imagine a future that they
participants imagine a future that they
participants imagine a future that they desire and believe is possible I ask
desire and believe is possible I ask
desire and believe is possible I ask participants to talk as if it’s the
participants to talk as if it’s the
participants to talk as if it’s the future I ask participants to play the
future I ask participants to play the
future I ask participants to play the role of their future self the role
role of their future self the role
role of their future self the role playing is critical it allows the
playing is critical it allows the
playing is critical it allows the participant to be innovative creative
participant to be innovative creative
participant to be innovative creative holistic my job as an interviewer is to
holistic my job as an interviewer is to
holistic my job as an interviewer is to explore their imagined future to
explore their imagined future to
explore their imagined future to understand what things have changed how
understand what things have changed how
understand what things have changed how and why I am looking for the aha moments
and why I am looking for the aha moments
and why I am looking for the aha moments when the interviewee is connected with
when the interviewee is connected with
when the interviewee is connected with their future self when there are
their future self when there are
their future self when there are temporal discounting is low and their
temporal discounting is low and their
temporal discounting is low and their self continuity is strong it is here
self continuity is strong it is here
self continuity is strong it is here where the interviewee is tapping the
where the interviewee is tapping the
where the interviewee is tapping the insights of the person they want to
insights of the person they want to
insights of the person they want to become it is here where some of the best
become it is here where some of the best
become it is here where some of the best ideas about the future can be found it’s
ideas about the future can be found it’s
ideas about the future can be found it’s one thing to think about your future
one thing to think about your future
one thing to think about your future it’s another thing to spend quality time
it’s another thing to spend quality time
it’s another thing to spend quality time explaining your future to someone else
explaining your future to someone else
explaining your future to someone else in detail
in detail
in detail the experience can be enlightening if
the experience can be enlightening if
the experience can be enlightening if not transformative interviews result in
not transformative interviews result in
not transformative interviews result in a set of ideas about the future as
a set of ideas about the future as
a set of ideas about the future as described by people’s future selves
described by people’s future selves
described by people’s future selves groups use these ideas as building
groups use these ideas as building
groups use these ideas as building blocks to build visions draft plans take
blocks to build visions draft plans take
blocks to build visions draft plans take better actions into the future let’s try
better actions into the future let’s try
better actions into the future let’s try something
something
something let’s try tapping your future selves
let’s try tapping your future selves
let’s try tapping your future selves okay you ready
imagine a future that you desire and you
imagine a future that you desire and you believe is possible now let’s go five
believe is possible now let’s go five
believe is possible now let’s go five years into the future
years into the future
years into the future it’s 2022 you are five years older think
it’s 2022 you are five years older think
it’s 2022 you are five years older think about that what he looked like
about that what he looked like
about that what he looked like it’s 2022 what’s different think about
it’s 2022 what’s different think about
it’s 2022 what’s different think about how things have changed your phone is
how things have changed your phone is
how things have changed your phone is five years older
five years older
five years older your shoes are five years older everyone
your shoes are five years older everyone
your shoes are five years older everyone you know is five years older okay where
you know is five years older okay where
you know is five years older okay where do you live now how do you spend your
do you live now how do you spend your
do you live now how do you spend your time Oh
time Oh
time Oh remember that problem that you’re
remember that problem that you’re
remember that problem that you’re dealing with five years ago back in 2017
dealing with five years ago back in 2017
dealing with five years ago back in 2017 how did that work out how did you do it
how did that work out how did you do it
how did that work out how did you do it what’s important to you now if you can
what’s important to you now if you can
what’s important to you now if you can answer these types of questions with
answer these types of questions with
answer these types of questions with detail honesty and empathy you are
detail honesty and empathy you are
detail honesty and empathy you are connecting with your future self and
connecting with your future self and
connecting with your future self and that is an important place to start
that is an important place to start
that is an important place to start we need visions but not just individual
we need visions but not just individual
we need visions but not just individual visions we need shared visions for the
visions we need shared visions for the
visions we need shared visions for the futures that we share with our friends
futures that we share with our friends
futures that we share with our friends our families our colleagues our schools
our families our colleagues our schools
our families our colleagues our schools or governments or institutions and more
or governments or institutions and more
or governments or institutions and more we need tools that make it easier for
we need tools that make it easier for
we need tools that make it easier for everyone to access their future self for
everyone to access their future self for
everyone to access their future self for everyone to have ideas about the future
everyone to have ideas about the future
everyone to have ideas about the future for everyone to participate and pursue
for everyone to participate and pursue
for everyone to participate and pursue shared visions it’s easy to live in the
shared visions it’s easy to live in the
shared visions it’s easy to live in the past it’s tempting to live in the moment
past it’s tempting to live in the moment
past it’s tempting to live in the moment but we must also try to connect with the
but we must also try to connect with the
but we must also try to connect with the person that we want to become in the
person that we want to become in the
person that we want to become in the future my sister Caroline is proof to me
future my sister Caroline is proof to me
future my sister Caroline is proof to me that the future can be shaped because it
that the future can be shaped because it
that the future can be shaped because it can I believe we must leaving it to
can I believe we must leaving it to
can I believe we must leaving it to chance I think is irresponsible so I’ll
chance I think is irresponsible so I’ll
chance I think is irresponsible so I’ll leave you three questions
leave you three questions
leave you three questions please think about these questions
please think about these questions
please think about these questions answer them share them with your friends
answer them share them with your friends
answer them share them with your friends and family what do you want your life to
and family what do you want your life to
and family what do you want your life to look like in five years how will you
look like in five years how will you
look like in five years how will you have changed and what will you have done
have changed and what will you have done
have changed and what will you have done thank you
thank you
thank you [Applause]
”
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