Oh have you had a great day birthday welcome to great cool
birthday welcome to great cool
birthday welcome to great cool risk-taking and decision-making in this
risk-taking and decision-making in this
risk-taking and decision-making in this new age of uncertainty with myself
new age of uncertainty with myself
new age of uncertainty with myself casper berry in the next 15 minutes I
casper berry in the next 15 minutes I
casper berry in the next 15 minutes I want to talk to you about uncertainty
want to talk to you about uncertainty
want to talk to you about uncertainty what is it where does it come from what
what is it where does it come from what
what is it where does it come from what causes it what are the effects on us all
causes it what are the effects on us all
causes it what are the effects on us all as individuals as team members as
as individuals as team members as
as individuals as team members as organizations what do we tend to do
organizations what do we tend to do
organizations what do we tend to do about it
about it
about it what’s been our response for four and a
what’s been our response for four and a
what’s been our response for four and a half thousand years since they erected
half thousand years since they erected
half thousand years since they erected the Parthenon on the Acropolis and what
the Parthenon on the Acropolis and what
the Parthenon on the Acropolis and what do I think we should do about it and
do I think we should do about it and
do I think we should do about it and could do about it
could do about it
could do about it what if playing poker for three years in
what if playing poker for three years in
what if playing poker for three years in Las Vegas teach me about that thing
Las Vegas teach me about that thing
Las Vegas teach me about that thing called uncertainty and it’s close cousin
called uncertainty and it’s close cousin
called uncertainty and it’s close cousin risk and how we can embrace them to
risk and how we can embrace them to
risk and how we can embrace them to achieve our best self so what is
achieve our best self so what is
achieve our best self so what is uncertainty allow your mind to one day
uncertainty allow your mind to one day
uncertainty allow your mind to one day it’s the unknown it’s the unpredictable
it’s the unknown it’s the unpredictable
it’s the unknown it’s the unpredictable I guess about 10 years ago 2007 we’ve
I guess about 10 years ago 2007 we’ve
I guess about 10 years ago 2007 we’ve probably thought of the world something
probably thought of the world something
probably thought of the world something like that right it was confusing there
like that right it was confusing there
like that right it was confusing there were decisions to make we didn’t always
were decisions to make we didn’t always
were decisions to make we didn’t always know what the right thing to do was
know what the right thing to do was
know what the right thing to do was but now 2017 the world feels more like
but now 2017 the world feels more like
but now 2017 the world feels more like that right now when we’re trying to
that right now when we’re trying to
that right now when we’re trying to figure out what to do the terrain has
figure out what to do the terrain has
figure out what to do the terrain has changed look at what’s happened we’ve
changed look at what’s happened we’ve
changed look at what’s happened we’ve had the financial crisis we’ve had the
had the financial crisis we’ve had the
had the financial crisis we’ve had the Arab Spring we’ve had unpredictable
Arab Spring we’ve had unpredictable
Arab Spring we’ve had unpredictable events right here in Greece
events right here in Greece
events right here in Greece we’ve got unpredictable events right now
we’ve got unpredictable events right now
we’ve got unpredictable events right now in England
in England
in England they’ve got unpredictable events in
they’ve got unpredictable events in
they’ve got unpredictable events in America I’m sure it’s gonna be fine
America I’m sure it’s gonna be fine
America I’m sure it’s gonna be fine right they know what they’re doing
right they know what they’re doing
right they know what they’re doing I hope they know what they’re doing but
I hope they know what they’re doing but
I hope they know what they’re doing but here’s the thing this is not new
here’s the thing this is not new
here’s the thing this is not new definitive study on global
definitive study on global
definitive study on global unpredictability was started a long time
unpredictability was started a long time
unpredictability was started a long time ago
ago
ago by a guy called Philip tetlock 30 years
by a guy called Philip tetlock 30 years
by a guy called Philip tetlock 30 years ago 1984 he’s a young academic at the
ago 1984 he’s a young academic at the
ago 1984 he’s a young academic at the National Research Council he’s working
National Research Council he’s working
National Research Council he’s working in the cold war and he becomes
in the cold war and he becomes
in the cold war and he becomes fascinated by how good or bad we are are
fascinated by how good or bad we are are
fascinated by how good or bad we are are predicting the future so he embarks on a
predicting the future so he embarks on a
predicting the future so he embarks on a study he starts asking 284 world
study he starts asking 284 world
study he starts asking 284 world expert and because of his position there
expert and because of his position there
expert and because of his position there world experts for their judgments their
world experts for their judgments their
world experts for their judgments their guesses their assessments as to what the
guesses their assessments as to what the
guesses their assessments as to what the future holds and it’s quite a simple
future holds and it’s quite a simple
future holds and it’s quite a simple structure I want to share it with you he
structure I want to share it with you he
structure I want to share it with you he gives each of them just three potential
gives each of them just three potential
gives each of them just three potential choices so he says for example is social
choices so he says for example is social
choices so he says for example is social unrest in Russia
unrest in Russia
unrest in Russia is there going to get better or worse or
is there going to get better or worse or
is there going to get better or worse or remain about the same according to this
remain about the same according to this
remain about the same according to this metric and these parameters and they
metric and these parameters and they
metric and these parameters and they have to make their guess and accompany
have to make their guess and accompany
have to make their guess and accompany it with a likelihood that measures their
it with a likelihood that measures their
it with a likelihood that measures their degree of confidence in their guests so
degree of confidence in their guests so
degree of confidence in their guests so they say it’s going to get better
they say it’s going to get better
they say it’s going to get better I’ve studied this for 20 years I’m 99%
I’ve studied this for 20 years I’m 99%
I’ve studied this for 20 years I’m 99% sure or they might say oh I think it’s
sure or they might say oh I think it’s
sure or they might say oh I think it’s gonna be about the same but I don’t know
gonna be about the same but I don’t know
gonna be about the same but I don’t know I’m about 40%
I’m about 40%
I’m about 40% it’s a massive study this is why I’m
it’s a massive study this is why I’m
it’s a massive study this is why I’m sharing it with you in total he asks
sharing it with you in total he asks
sharing it with you in total he asks twenty seven thousand four hundred and
twenty seven thousand four hundred and
twenty seven thousand four hundred and fifty questions over the course of 20
fifty questions over the course of 20
fifty questions over the course of 20 years takes him five years to write it
years takes him five years to write it
years takes him five years to write it up it is literally his life’s work and
up it is literally his life’s work and
up it is literally his life’s work and because of the sheer size and scale of
because of the sheer size and scale of
because of the sheer size and scale of it it’s regarded as one of most robust
it it’s regarded as one of most robust
it it’s regarded as one of most robust studies in all of social sciences so
studies in all of social sciences so
studies in all of social sciences so what are the results well we’re in the
what are the results well we’re in the
what are the results well we’re in the data it’s much variation some people
data it’s much variation some people
data it’s much variation some people definitely better than others and we
definitely better than others and we
definitely better than others and we will come back to that they’re taken as
will come back to that they’re taken as
will come back to that they’re taken as a whole as a whole those 284 world
a whole as a whole those 284 world
a whole as a whole those 284 world experts over twenty seven thousand four
experts over twenty seven thousand four
experts over twenty seven thousand four hundred and fifty guesses in twenty
hundred and fifty guesses in twenty
hundred and fifty guesses in twenty years are no better than random you
years are no better than random you
years are no better than random you would have got the same quality of
would have got the same quality of
would have got the same quality of answers from asking a child so what is
answers from asking a child so what is
answers from asking a child so what is this thing called uncertainty where does
this thing called uncertainty where does
this thing called uncertainty where does it come from well in defense of those
it come from well in defense of those
it come from well in defense of those experts the world is a really
experts the world is a really
experts the world is a really complicated place right I mean maybe a
complicated place right I mean maybe a
complicated place right I mean maybe a better word is complex the world’s
better word is complex the world’s
better word is complex the world’s complex place and to understand
complex place and to understand
complex place and to understand complexity has got right to the heart of
complexity has got right to the heart of
complexity has got right to the heart of that idea and think about the butterfly
that idea and think about the butterfly
that idea and think about the butterfly effect now we know how the butterfly
effect now we know how the butterfly
effect now we know how the butterfly effect is always explained they say that
effect is always explained they say that
effect is always explained they say that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil
a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil
a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a rainstorm in Rome right
can cause a rainstorm in Rome right
can cause a rainstorm in Rome right that’s how its explained but that’s not
that’s how its explained but that’s not
that’s how its explained but that’s not really what it means what it means I’m
really what it means what it means I’m
really what it means what it means I’m sure you know is that tiny things can
sure you know is that tiny things can
sure you know is that tiny things can have big impacts the tiniest of things
have big impacts the tiniest of things
have big impacts the tiniest of things can have the biggest impact and effect
can have the biggest impact and effect
can have the biggest impact and effect in poker I used to think about that all
in poker I used to think about that all
in poker I used to think about that all the time the tiniest of thing a wink a
the time the tiniest of thing a wink a
the time the tiniest of thing a wink a blink can change
blink can change
blink can change that’s why everyone’s trying to cover up
that’s why everyone’s trying to cover up
that’s why everyone’s trying to cover up their foot we have the phrase the
their foot we have the phrase the
their foot we have the phrase the pokerface now they wear the cap and the
pokerface now they wear the cap and the
pokerface now they wear the cap and the shades and that’s legal in most poker
shades and that’s legal in most poker
shades and that’s legal in most poker rooms that’s going too far
rooms that’s going too far
rooms that’s going too far alright folks we will see a nice fair
alright folks we will see a nice fair
alright folks we will see a nice fair game but the point is the information is
game but the point is the information is
game but the point is the information is limited we don’t know exactly what’s
limited we don’t know exactly what’s
limited we don’t know exactly what’s going on under those shades or in that
going on under those shades or in that
going on under those shades or in that soul but here’s where the butterfly
soul but here’s where the butterfly
soul but here’s where the butterfly effect is really really takes place in
effect is really really takes place in
effect is really really takes place in poker in the center of all of those
poker in the center of all of those
poker in the center of all of those tables is a randomly shuffled deck of
tables is a randomly shuffled deck of
tables is a randomly shuffled deck of cards every single one of those cars
cards every single one of those cars
cards every single one of those cars could completely change the hand and you
could completely change the hand and you
could completely change the hand and you know what the amazing thing is every
know what the amazing thing is every
know what the amazing thing is every hand in poker every evening in poker
hand in poker every evening in poker
hand in poker every evening in poker your results will have more to do with
your results will have more to do with
your results will have more to do with the length of the dealer’s nails as they
the length of the dealer’s nails as they
the length of the dealer’s nails as they shuffle the cards together than all of
shuffle the cards together than all of
shuffle the cards together than all of your all of your great play and poker
your all of your great play and poker
your all of your great play and poker and life are interacting these
and life are interacting these
and life are interacting these butterflies flapping their wings all the
butterflies flapping their wings all the
butterflies flapping their wings all the time changing everything this is
time changing everything this is
time changing everything this is honestly true if the six of Hearts had
honestly true if the six of Hearts had
honestly true if the six of Hearts had fallen on a particular hand of Poker in
fallen on a particular hand of Poker in
fallen on a particular hand of Poker in Las Vegas in 2001 I would have won about
Las Vegas in 2001 I would have won about
Las Vegas in 2001 I would have won about three hundred and fifty thousand dollars
three hundred and fifty thousand dollars
three hundred and fifty thousand dollars now it didn’t it didn’t fall but I often
now it didn’t it didn’t fall but I often
now it didn’t it didn’t fall but I often wonder what would have happened if it
wonder what would have happened if it
wonder what would have happened if it had I have no idea maybe I’d have
had I have no idea maybe I’d have
had I have no idea maybe I’d have stopped playing there and then poker was
stopped playing there and then poker was
stopped playing there and then poker was supposed to be a life break for me I
supposed to be a life break for me I
supposed to be a life break for me I thought six months ain’t alep doing it
thought six months ain’t alep doing it
thought six months ain’t alep doing it for three years maybe maybe not maybe
for three years maybe maybe not maybe
for three years maybe maybe not maybe I’d have carried on playing maybe I’d
I’d have carried on playing maybe I’d
I’d have carried on playing maybe I’d still be doing it now here’s what
still be doing it now here’s what
still be doing it now here’s what wouldn’t have happened right if that had
wouldn’t have happened right if that had
wouldn’t have happened right if that had fallen I wouldn’t have stopped on the
fallen I wouldn’t have stopped on the
fallen I wouldn’t have stopped on the exact day that I did ten months later I
exact day that I did ten months later I
exact day that I did ten months later I wouldn’t come back to England I wouldn’t
wouldn’t come back to England I wouldn’t
wouldn’t come back to England I wouldn’t have met this guy became business
have met this guy became business
have met this guy became business partners we wouldn’t have set up this
partners we wouldn’t have set up this
partners we wouldn’t have set up this company we wouldn’t have built it up to
company we wouldn’t have built it up to
company we wouldn’t have built it up to a team of 40 we sold it to a PLC I
a team of 40 we sold it to a PLC I
a team of 40 we sold it to a PLC I wouldn’t have them moved to London and
wouldn’t have them moved to London and
wouldn’t have them moved to London and started commentating on poker on TV I
started commentating on poker on TV I
started commentating on poker on TV I wouldn’t have been asked to be poker
wouldn’t have been asked to be poker
wouldn’t have been asked to be poker advisor on the bond movie Casino Royale
advisor on the bond movie Casino Royale
advisor on the bond movie Casino Royale I wouldn’t have been asked to speak
I wouldn’t have been asked to speak
I wouldn’t have been asked to speak about that I wouldn’t be a speaker now
about that I wouldn’t be a speaker now
about that I wouldn’t be a speaker now here today you’d probably have someone
here today you’d probably have someone
here today you’d probably have someone much better here’s my point if you think
much better here’s my point if you think
much better here’s my point if you think or do anything differently as a result
or do anything differently as a result
or do anything differently as a result of this that six of hearts changed all
of this that six of hearts changed all
of this that six of hearts changed all of our lives and that is happening every
of our lives and that is happening every
of our lives and that is happening every single moment of every single day to all
single moment of every single day to all
single moment of every single day to all of us
of us
of us and that is how a poker player has to
and that is how a poker player has to
and that is how a poker player has to think it’s you you’re applauding but
think it’s you you’re applauding but
think it’s you you’re applauding but it’s frustrating though right because if
it’s frustrating though right because if
it’s frustrating though right because if that’s happening then we’re we’re not in
that’s happening then we’re we’re not in
that’s happening then we’re we’re not in control of our lives and that would have
control of our lives and that would have
control of our lives and that would have an effect on us if you thought about the
an effect on us if you thought about the
an effect on us if you thought about the world every day like that which I don’t
world every day like that which I don’t
world every day like that which I don’t want you to it takes away something you
want you to it takes away something you
want you to it takes away something you need Maslow’s pyramid of needs what does
need Maslow’s pyramid of needs what does
need Maslow’s pyramid of needs what does he tell us down the bottom there
he tell us down the bottom there
he tell us down the bottom there we need safety security it’s down there
we need safety security it’s down there
we need safety security it’s down there with our basic needs food water warmth
with our basic needs food water warmth
with our basic needs food water warmth obviously Wi-Fi he’s doing that pyramid
obviously Wi-Fi he’s doing that pyramid
obviously Wi-Fi he’s doing that pyramid today right we need to feel in control
today right we need to feel in control
today right we need to feel in control of our lives we need to feel a sense of
of our lives we need to feel a sense of
of our lives we need to feel a sense of certainty that’s why we don’t think of
certainty that’s why we don’t think of
certainty that’s why we don’t think of the world as that chaotic most of the
the world as that chaotic most of the
the world as that chaotic most of the time look at the look at the society the
time look at the look at the society the
time look at the look at the society the world that we’ve created in those four
world that we’ve created in those four
world that we’ve created in those four and a half thousand years what do we do
and a half thousand years what do we do
and a half thousand years what do we do soon as we could we project produce laws
soon as we could we project produce laws
soon as we could we project produce laws which you know impose a certain amount
which you know impose a certain amount
which you know impose a certain amount of control and I’m glad we did I want to
of control and I’m glad we did I want to
of control and I’m glad we did I want to feel safe as I walk down the street
feel safe as I walk down the street
feel safe as I walk down the street capitalism has process and procedure we
capitalism has process and procedure we
capitalism has process and procedure we have the health and safety world to try
have the health and safety world to try
have the health and safety world to try and eliminate risk and thank God we do
and eliminate risk and thank God we do
and eliminate risk and thank God we do save hundreds of thousands of lives in
save hundreds of thousands of lives in
save hundreds of thousands of lives in the last hundred years how when you
the last hundred years how when you
the last hundred years how when you think about it by catching butterflies
think about it by catching butterflies
think about it by catching butterflies by putting up signs stopping people from
by putting up signs stopping people from
by putting up signs stopping people from doing silly things everything is banned
doing silly things everything is banned
doing silly things everything is banned in this location I have no idea where it
in this location I have no idea where it
in this location I have no idea where it is leaning against a wall carrying a
is leaning against a wall carrying a
is leaning against a wall carrying a violin this is an actual sign from a
violin this is an actual sign from a
violin this is an actual sign from a Japanese toilet a lot of the things down
Japanese toilet a lot of the things down
Japanese toilet a lot of the things down the bottom there I’ve never tried I
the bottom there I’ve never tried I
the bottom there I’ve never tried I don’t know that has tried we can try and
don’t know that has tried we can try and
don’t know that has tried we can try and stop people from doing these silly
stop people from doing these silly
stop people from doing these silly things but we’ll never stop everything
things but we’ll never stop everything
things but we’ll never stop everything right we’ll never go all the way we’ll
right we’ll never go all the way we’ll
right we’ll never go all the way we’ll never catch every butterfly you know why
never catch every butterfly you know why
never catch every butterfly you know why because the butterfly effect if you have
because the butterfly effect if you have
because the butterfly effect if you have to visually represent it doesn’t look
to visually represent it doesn’t look
to visually represent it doesn’t look like that you can’t but if you had to
like that you can’t but if you had to
like that you can’t but if you had to have to it would look more like that
have to it would look more like that
have to it would look more like that it’s a million a billion and maybe an
it’s a million a billion and maybe an
it’s a million a billion and maybe an infinite number and that’s important of
infinite number and that’s important of
infinite number and that’s important of different agents of chance and change
different agents of chance and change
different agents of chance and change all interacting with each other in ways
all interacting with each other in ways
all interacting with each other in ways that I want to go so far as to say we in
that I want to go so far as to say we in
that I want to go so far as to say we in our lifetimes will never be able to
our lifetimes will never be able to
our lifetimes will never be able to fully predict and that’s frustrating
fully predict and that’s frustrating
fully predict and that’s frustrating that’s why it’s really comforting when
that’s why it’s really comforting when
that’s why it’s really comforting when someone else comes along who seems to be
someone else comes along who seems to be
someone else comes along who seems to be able to do that right the early belief
able to do that right the early belief
able to do that right the early belief systems were based on that promise we
systems were based on that promise we
systems were based on that promise we had a hotline literally here to the gods
had a hotline literally here to the gods
had a hotline literally here to the gods and we still invest hundreds of billions
and we still invest hundreds of billions
and we still invest hundreds of billions of dollars every single day week month
of dollars every single day week month
of dollars every single day week month year on the basis of these kind of
year on the basis of these kind of
year on the basis of these kind of predictions this is the Bank of England
predictions this is the Bank of England
predictions this is the Bank of England actual prediction as to what the UK
actual prediction as to what the UK
actual prediction as to what the UK economy would look like in 2008 from
economy would look like in 2008 from
economy would look like in 2008 from their perspective at the time a 2004 and
their perspective at the time a 2004 and
their perspective at the time a 2004 and I think we can all agree there’s some
I think we can all agree there’s some
I think we can all agree there’s some margin for error isn’t there there huh
margin for error isn’t there there huh
margin for error isn’t there there huh little bit of wiggle room they’ve given
little bit of wiggle room they’ve given
little bit of wiggle room they’ve given themselves at the Bank of England this
themselves at the Bank of England this
themselves at the Bank of England this is a very clever way of going I don’t
is a very clever way of going I don’t
is a very clever way of going I don’t know that’s basically what they’re
know that’s basically what they’re
know that’s basically what they’re they’re saying they’re actually I’m
they’re saying they’re actually I’m
they’re saying they’re actually I’m having some fun at the Bank of England’s
having some fun at the Bank of England’s
having some fun at the Bank of England’s expense they’re doing something very
expense they’re doing something very
expense they’re doing something very important here in that fan that spread
important here in that fan that spread
important here in that fan that spread they’re actually saying we can’t tell
they’re actually saying we can’t tell
they’re actually saying we can’t tell you exactly what the future holds we’re
you exactly what the future holds we’re
you exactly what the future holds we’re going to make a good guess but actually
going to make a good guess but actually
going to make a good guess but actually it turns out this power in that because
it turns out this power in that because
it turns out this power in that because whilst taken as a whole those experts
whilst taken as a whole those experts
whilst taken as a whole those experts predictions no better than random some
predictions no better than random some
predictions no better than random some people were better than others and tell
people were better than others and tell
people were better than others and tell it was a scientist he wanted to try and
it was a scientist he wanted to try and
it was a scientist he wanted to try and understand that he wanted to try and
understand that he wanted to try and
understand that he wanted to try and correlate their success against
correlate their success against
correlate their success against something else in his data because if he
something else in his data because if he
something else in his data because if he could do that he would have identified
could do that he would have identified
could do that he would have identified maybe the cause or a correlation of good
maybe the cause or a correlation of good
maybe the cause or a correlation of good judgment wasn’t easy didn’t correlate
judgment wasn’t easy didn’t correlate
judgment wasn’t easy didn’t correlate against their academic discipline or
against their academic discipline or
against their academic discipline or their age or their experience or their
their age or their experience or their
their age or their experience or their political persuasion left or right the
political persuasion left or right the
political persuasion left or right the single strongest correlation that he
single strongest correlation that he
single strongest correlation that he could find within the data was between
could find within the data was between
could find within the data was between their success and the confidence that
their success and the confidence that
their success and the confidence that they had in their guests remember on 99
they had in their guests remember on 99
they had in their guests remember on 99 percent I’m dead certain I’m forty
percent I’m dead certain I’m forty
percent I’m dead certain I’m forty percent I don’t really know and the
percent I don’t really know and the
percent I don’t really know and the correlation was negative that is the
correlation was negative that is the
correlation was negative that is the less sure they were the more likely they
less sure they were the more likely they
less sure they were the more likely they were to be right feels counterintuitive
were to be right feels counterintuitive
were to be right feels counterintuitive at first but it’s not reframe the 99
at first but it’s not reframe the 99
at first but it’s not reframe the 99 percenters were kind of going trust me
percenters were kind of going trust me
percenters were kind of going trust me I’m an expert it’s going to be this the
I’m an expert it’s going to be this the
I’m an expert it’s going to be this the 40% is were kind of going I’m also an
40% is were kind of going I’m also an
40% is were kind of going I’m also an expert studied this 20 years been wrong
expert studied this 20 years been wrong
expert studied this 20 years been wrong in the past this person an expert we
in the past this person an expert we
in the past this person an expert we disagree really important for me to try
disagree really important for me to try
disagree really important for me to try and understand where they’re coming from
and understand where they’re coming from
and understand where they’re coming from these people were humble they were
these people were humble they were
these people were humble they were open-minded they all
open-minded they all
open-minded they all craved new data and information more
craved new data and information more
craved new data and information more than anything else what I would say is
than anything else what I would say is
than anything else what I would say is these people embraced the reality of
these people embraced the reality of
these people embraced the reality of uncertainty they didn’t dismiss it as
uncertainty they didn’t dismiss it as
uncertainty they didn’t dismiss it as something which happens every now and
something which happens every now and
something which happens every now and again in other words we can have a
again in other words we can have a
again in other words we can have a choice we can view the world like this
choice we can view the world like this
choice we can view the world like this as being you know quite uncertain
as being you know quite uncertain
as being you know quite uncertain although there’s always a right answer
although there’s always a right answer
although there’s always a right answer right that’s what we were trained to
right that’s what we were trained to
right that’s what we were trained to look for since the age of five our right
look for since the age of five our right
look for since the age of five our right answer or we can accept that there is no
answer or we can accept that there is no
answer or we can accept that there is no right answer it’s not sitting out there
right answer it’s not sitting out there
right answer it’s not sitting out there waiting to be discovered by an expert
waiting to be discovered by an expert
waiting to be discovered by an expert it’s always being shaped that is the
it’s always being shaped that is the
it’s always being shaped that is the reality of uncertainty the world doesn’t
reality of uncertainty the world doesn’t
reality of uncertainty the world doesn’t look like that now it’s always look like
look like that now it’s always look like
look like that now it’s always look like that and if you want to come with me on
that and if you want to come with me on
that and if you want to come with me on that journey if we think that that is
that journey if we think that that is
that journey if we think that that is what the world looks like and that’s how
what the world looks like and that’s how
what the world looks like and that’s how we’re going to more accurately think
we’re going to more accurately think
we’re going to more accurately think about the future then this person has
about the future then this person has
about the future then this person has something to teach us not because
something to teach us not because
something to teach us not because they’re any wiser than us or more
they’re any wiser than us or more
they’re any wiser than us or more intelligent but because in poker you
intelligent but because in poker you
intelligent but because in poker you wouldn’t just be one of those arrogant
wouldn’t just be one of those arrogant
wouldn’t just be one of those arrogant experts to say I know what the future
experts to say I know what the future
experts to say I know what the future holds
holds
holds you’d be slightly mad because the last
you’d be slightly mad because the last
you’d be slightly mad because the last cards going to come down the ace of
cards going to come down the ace of
cards going to come down the ace of hearts or the five of spades and it’s
hearts or the five of spades and it’s
hearts or the five of spades and it’s going to totally change the outcome of
going to totally change the outcome of
going to totally change the outcome of your decision your investment decision
your decision your investment decision
your decision your investment decision your resource allocation decision so we
your resource allocation decision so we
your resource allocation decision so we need a way of just accepting and
need a way of just accepting and
need a way of just accepting and embracing the reality of uncertainty
embracing the reality of uncertainty
embracing the reality of uncertainty when we make those decisions and here’s
when we make those decisions and here’s
when we make those decisions and here’s the amazing thing it never fails to
the amazing thing it never fails to
the amazing thing it never fails to amaze me we have won we’ve had it for
amaze me we have won we’ve had it for
amaze me we have won we’ve had it for 300 years it literally makes insurance
300 years it literally makes insurance
300 years it literally makes insurance possible credit possible valuation of
possible credit possible valuation of
possible credit possible valuation of anything under uncertainty possible it
anything under uncertainty possible it
anything under uncertainty possible it underpins capitalism itself and yet when
underpins capitalism itself and yet when
underpins capitalism itself and yet when I show it to you now it’s always always
I show it to you now it’s always always
I show it to you now it’s always always always counterintuitive here’s what we
always counterintuitive here’s what we
always counterintuitive here’s what we do we say okay there’s four thousand
do we say okay there’s four thousand
do we say okay there’s four thousand dollars in the pot that’s the upside and
dollars in the pot that’s the upside and
dollars in the pot that’s the upside and everything you’ve ever done in your
everything you’ve ever done in your
everything you’ve ever done in your lives has an upside let’s imagine we
lives has an upside let’s imagine we
lives has an upside let’s imagine we have to put in $400 to cool that’s our
have to put in $400 to cool that’s our
have to put in $400 to cool that’s our investment that’s the cost that’s the
investment that’s the cost that’s the
investment that’s the cost that’s the risk that’s what’s at stake what we’re
risk that’s what’s at stake what we’re
risk that’s what’s at stake what we’re going to do now in an uncertain world is
going to do now in an uncertain world is
going to do now in an uncertain world is what we all do every day but
what we all do every day but
what we all do every day but subconsciously we’re going to make a
subconsciously we’re going to make a
subconsciously we’re going to make a judgment and assessment and in a world
judgment and assessment and in a world
judgment and assessment and in a world of uncertainty all judgments all
of uncertainty all judgments all
of uncertainty all judgments all assessments are actually probability
assessments are actually probability
assessments are actually probability assessments
assessments
assessments so we say okay I think I’ve got about
so we say okay I think I’ve got about
so we say okay I think I’ve got about 25% chance I’m not definitely gonna win
25% chance I’m not definitely gonna win
25% chance I’m not definitely gonna win I’m not definitely going to lose that
I’m not definitely going to lose that
I’m not definitely going to lose that allows us to do a calculation the origin
allows us to do a calculation the origin
allows us to do a calculation the origin of the phrase calculated risk and it
of the phrase calculated risk and it
of the phrase calculated risk and it looks like this
looks like this
looks like this if 25% of the time we win $4,000 that
if 25% of the time we win $4,000 that
if 25% of the time we win $4,000 that means each time on average we win 1,000
means each time on average we win 1,000
means each time on average we win 1,000 we never win 1,000 we are the win 4000
we never win 1,000 we are the win 4000
we never win 1,000 we are the win 4000 or lose 400 but on average that’s our
or lose 400 but on average that’s our
or lose 400 but on average that’s our long-term upside if 75% of the time we
long-term upside if 75% of the time we
long-term upside if 75% of the time we lose 400 then each time on average we
lose 400 then each time on average we
lose 400 then each time on average we lose 75% of 400 which is 300 that means
lose 75% of 400 which is 300 that means
lose 75% of 400 which is 300 that means we can now add those two together our
we can now add those two together our
we can now add those two together our long-term upside – our long-term
long-term upside – our long-term
long-term upside – our long-term downside to get a value an average value
downside to get a value an average value
downside to get a value an average value of this situation will never make $700
of this situation will never make $700
of this situation will never make $700 but on average that’s what this is worth
but on average that’s what this is worth
but on average that’s what this is worth it means three amazing things number one
it means three amazing things number one
it means three amazing things number one it means at a poker game if we don’t
it means at a poker game if we don’t
it means at a poker game if we don’t make that call if we fold our cards
make that call if we fold our cards
make that call if we fold our cards because we could lose we’re turning down
because we could lose we’re turning down
because we could lose we’re turning down $700 we’re literally passing it up value
$700 we’re literally passing it up value
$700 we’re literally passing it up value we have to make that call
we have to make that call
we have to make that call it’s a great call number two it is great
it’s a great call number two it is great
it’s a great call number two it is great irrespective of whether it succeeds on
irrespective of whether it succeeds on
irrespective of whether it succeeds on this occasion or not that’s mind blowing
this occasion or not that’s mind blowing
this occasion or not that’s mind blowing decision-making science tells us that a
decision-making science tells us that a
decision-making science tells us that a decision is good or bad irrespective of
decision is good or bad irrespective of
decision is good or bad irrespective of this outcome we don’t live our lives
this outcome we don’t live our lives
this outcome we don’t live our lives like that at all and number three if we
like that at all and number three if we
like that at all and number three if we divide it by our investment we get a
divide it by our investment we get a
divide it by our investment we get a return on our investment of 175 percent
return on our investment of 175 percent
return on our investment of 175 percent in business we kill for that kind of
in business we kill for that kind of
in business we kill for that kind of return in poker we don’t have to kill we
return in poker we don’t have to kill we
return in poker we don’t have to kill we just have to be prepared to fail that’s
just have to be prepared to fail that’s
just have to be prepared to fail that’s what happens in an uncertain world you
what happens in an uncertain world you
what happens in an uncertain world you fail more but it’s fine don’t worry
fail more but it’s fine don’t worry
fail more but it’s fine don’t worry because we think long-term this is Doyle
because we think long-term this is Doyle
because we think long-term this is Doyle Brunson probably the greatest poker
Brunson probably the greatest poker
Brunson probably the greatest poker player of all time
player of all time
player of all time he’s now worth tens of millions of
he’s now worth tens of millions of
he’s now worth tens of millions of dollars but in order to get there he had
dollars but in order to get there he had
dollars but in order to get there he had to be prepared to fail and a hand and an
to be prepared to fail and a hand and an
to be prepared to fail and a hand and an evening in a week even in a month to
evening in a week even in a month to
evening in a week even in a month to make those millions he’s had to lose
make those millions he’s had to lose
make those millions he’s had to lose more money than most of us will see
more money than most of us will see
more money than most of us will see during the course of a lifetime but he’s
during the course of a lifetime but he’s
during the course of a lifetime but he’s still smiling and that’s why now that’s
still smiling and that’s why now that’s
still smiling and that’s why now that’s how I why is because he’s got millions
how I why is because he’s got millions
how I why is because he’s got millions the losses
the losses
the losses short-term it’s all about the end the
short-term it’s all about the end the
short-term it’s all about the end the destination do you know Babe Ruth he had
destination do you know Babe Ruth he had
destination do you know Babe Ruth he had the all-time record for the most number
the all-time record for the most number
the all-time record for the most number of home runs hit do you know he also had
of home runs hit do you know he also had
of home runs hit do you know he also had the all-time record for the most number
the all-time record for the most number
the all-time record for the most number of strikeouts for complete misses of the
of strikeouts for complete misses of the
of strikeouts for complete misses of the ball that means by two different metrics
ball that means by two different metrics
ball that means by two different metrics he’s both the best and the worst player
he’s both the best and the worst player
he’s both the best and the worst player of all time
of all time
of all time I put it to you that’s not a coincidence
I put it to you that’s not a coincidence
I put it to you that’s not a coincidence that sometimes if you want to be the
that sometimes if you want to be the
that sometimes if you want to be the best over here you have to accept a
best over here you have to accept a
best over here you have to accept a negative metric how can he do this
negative metric how can he do this
negative metric how can he do this no don’t turn your business model on
no don’t turn your business model on
no don’t turn your business model on your head you don’t have to set up a
your head you don’t have to set up a
your head you don’t have to set up a whole new company here’s an amazing
whole new company here’s an amazing
whole new company here’s an amazing thing Warren Bennis professor of
thing Warren Bennis professor of
thing Warren Bennis professor of leadership at Harvard University did a
leadership at Harvard University did a
leadership at Harvard University did a study of the great super leaders the
study of the great super leaders the
study of the great super leaders the Bill Gates the Bill Clinton’s he found
Bill Gates the Bill Clinton’s he found
Bill Gates the Bill Clinton’s he found out that those people they got let down
out that those people they got let down
out that those people they got let down lie too and screwed over more often than
lie too and screwed over more often than
lie too and screwed over more often than most of us why is that surely these were
most of us why is that surely these were
most of us why is that surely these were the people that others wanted to follow
the people that others wanted to follow
the people that others wanted to follow well maybe maybe if you trust a hundred
well maybe maybe if you trust a hundred
well maybe maybe if you trust a hundred people maybe twenty of them will let you
people maybe twenty of them will let you
people maybe twenty of them will let you down but maybe you get more from the
down but maybe you get more from the
down but maybe you get more from the other eighty than if you don’t trust any
other eighty than if you don’t trust any
other eighty than if you don’t trust any of them at all
of them at all
of them at all maybe we should be taking more risks
maybe we should be taking more risks
maybe we should be taking more risks like that and our lives we can immunize
like that and our lives we can immunize
like that and our lives we can immunize ourselves to this pain if we want to but
ourselves to this pain if we want to but
ourselves to this pain if we want to but we won’t get all the benefit of this
we won’t get all the benefit of this
we won’t get all the benefit of this surely the stories that we tell about
surely the stories that we tell about
surely the stories that we tell about the great leaders in the world surely
the great leaders in the world surely
the great leaders in the world surely they are the stories of the times that
they are the stories of the times that
they are the stories of the times that they failed and we don’t tell those just
they failed and we don’t tell those just
they failed and we don’t tell those just because they make good stories or
because they make good stories or
because they make good stories or because they’re more incompetent we tell
because they’re more incompetent we tell
because they’re more incompetent we tell them because you bite off more than
them because you bite off more than
them because you bite off more than anybody else and you do fail more often
anybody else and you do fail more often
anybody else and you do fail more often this guy failed in business in 1831
this guy failed in business in 1831
this guy failed in business in 1831 defeated four legislature 1830 to second
defeated four legislature 1830 to second
defeated four legislature 1830 to second business failure 1833 nois break down
business failure 1833 nois break down
business failure 1833 nois break down 1836 confined to bed for six months but
1836 confined to bed for six months but
1836 confined to bed for six months but he gets up and he’s defeated for speaker
he gets up and he’s defeated for speaker
he gets up and he’s defeated for speaker in 1838 defeated for Congress 1848
in 1838 defeated for Congress 1848
in 1838 defeated for Congress 1848 defeated with Senate 1855 give it up now
defeated with Senate 1855 give it up now
defeated with Senate 1855 give it up now Abe maybe it’s not for you know defeat
Abe maybe it’s not for you know defeat
Abe maybe it’s not for you know defeat of a vice president 1856 defeated his
of a vice president 1856 defeated his
of a vice president 1856 defeated his Senate again 1858 before finally being
Senate again 1858 before finally being
Senate again 1858 before finally being elected president in 1860 and that is
elected president in 1860 and that is
elected president in 1860 and that is what we remember him for
what we remember him for
what we remember him for the long-term achievement thank you
he was assassinated age 65 or over
he was assassinated age 65 or over which does show bridge taking is
which does show bridge taking is
which does show bridge taking is dangerous be careful thank you
dangerous be careful thank you
dangerous be careful thank you [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] [Music]
[Music]
[Music] you
”
Be First to Comment