I want to start by having you imagine something for me okay imagine that you
something for me okay imagine that you
something for me okay imagine that you are standing on a beach in the Bahamas
are standing on a beach in the Bahamas
are standing on a beach in the Bahamas it’s a nice sunny day it’s a nice beach
it’s a nice sunny day it’s a nice beach
it’s a nice sunny day it’s a nice beach that’s a good image right
that’s a good image right
that’s a good image right it’s 1492 and from the east three
it’s 1492 and from the east three
it’s 1492 and from the east three rickety wooden boats sort of lurch their
rickety wooden boats sort of lurch their
rickety wooden boats sort of lurch their way across the horizon and out of it
way across the horizon and out of it
way across the horizon and out of it comes Christopher Columbus and he comes
comes Christopher Columbus and he comes
comes Christopher Columbus and he comes up to the shoreline and you being from
up to the shoreline and you being from
up to the shoreline and you being from this audience walk up to him and say sir
this audience walk up to him and say sir
this audience walk up to him and say sir you today are starting a chain of events
you today are starting a chain of events
you today are starting a chain of events that in 500 years for good and more than
that in 500 years for good and more than
that in 500 years for good and more than often ill will lead to a billion people
often ill will lead to a billion people
often ill will lead to a billion people living on two continents you haven’t
living on two continents you haven’t
living on two continents you haven’t seen and won’t see in some of the most
seen and won’t see in some of the most
seen and won’t see in some of the most prosperous powerful nations on earth
prosperous powerful nations on earth
prosperous powerful nations on earth well his initial reaction I’m pretty
well his initial reaction I’m pretty
well his initial reaction I’m pretty sure would be to be confused because he
sure would be to be confused because he
sure would be to be confused because he thought he was in Indonesia but after
thought he was in Indonesia but after
thought he was in Indonesia but after that he would probably think that you’re
that he would probably think that you’re
that he would probably think that you’re wrong he would say what are you talking
wrong he would say what are you talking
wrong he would say what are you talking about a billion people that’s more than
about a billion people that’s more than
about a billion people that’s more than there are on the entire planet
there are on the entire planet
there are on the entire planet and in any case it was a huge effort for
and in any case it was a huge effort for
and in any case it was a huge effort for me to get here I had to get the crown to
me to get here I had to get the crown to
me to get here I had to get the crown to give me three ships I had to find a crew
give me three ships I had to find a crew
give me three ships I had to find a crew that didn’t want to worry about falling
that didn’t want to worry about falling
that didn’t want to worry about falling off the edge of the earth just to get
off the edge of the earth just to get
off the edge of the earth just to get them out here it was a massive
them out here it was a massive
them out here it was a massive enterprise how are people going to come
enterprise how are people going to come
enterprise how are people going to come here why are they going to come here
here why are they going to come here
here why are they going to come here well he would have been wrong if he took
well he would have been wrong if he took
well he would have been wrong if he took that position of course because there
that position of course because there
that position of course because there are a billion people in the Americas and
are a billion people in the Americas and
are a billion people in the Americas and there are powerful nations there and
there are powerful nations there and
there are powerful nations there and they came for a variety of reasons they
they came for a variety of reasons they
they came for a variety of reasons they came for wealth they came for political
came for wealth they came for political
came for wealth they came for political and religious freedom and they came for
and religious freedom and they came for
and religious freedom and they came for a personal glory just sort of the
a personal glory just sort of the
a personal glory just sort of the reasons why people do anything anyway
reasons why people do anything anyway
reasons why people do anything anyway and what made it possible was an ongoing
and what made it possible was an ongoing
and what made it possible was an ongoing exploration of the Americas fueled by
exploration of the Americas fueled by
exploration of the Americas fueled by steady improvements in technology that
steady improvements in technology that
steady improvements in technology that made it possible but
made it possible but
made it possible but that voyage was the thing that really
that voyage was the thing that really
that voyage was the thing that really got it taking off so my goal here is to
got it taking off so my goal here is to
got it taking off so my goal here is to suggest that maybe we are at a similar
suggest that maybe we are at a similar
suggest that maybe we are at a similar inflection point a moment where we might
inflection point a moment where we might
inflection point a moment where we might be opening up a new world that will
be opening up a new world that will
be opening up a new world that will change the lives of our descendants in a
change the lives of our descendants in a
change the lives of our descendants in a way that is comparable to the way the
way that is comparable to the way the
way that is comparable to the way the lives of the descendants of Columbus
lives of the descendants of Columbus
lives of the descendants of Columbus have been changed now that sounds pretty
have been changed now that sounds pretty
have been changed now that sounds pretty grandiose I know so you’re probably
grandiose I know so you’re probably
grandiose I know so you’re probably wondering where this new world is and
wondering where this new world is and
wondering where this new world is and what this new world is and I bet you
what this new world is and I bet you
what this new world is and I bet you have visions in your mind so it’s
have visions in your mind so it’s
have visions in your mind so it’s probably just good if I just show you
all right it’s not much but there’s a
all right it’s not much but there’s a lot of promise there let me let me
lot of promise there let me let me
lot of promise there let me let me explain why so this is an example of
explain why so this is an example of
explain why so this is an example of something called a small body or a
something called a small body or a
something called a small body or a planetesimal and by small I do mean
planetesimal and by small I do mean
planetesimal and by small I do mean small I mean objects like the one in
small I mean objects like the one in
small I mean objects like the one in this particular image that would easily
this particular image that would easily
this particular image that would easily fit on this stage up to things that
fit on this stage up to things that
fit on this stage up to things that might be as much as a hundred kilometers
might be as much as a hundred kilometers
might be as much as a hundred kilometers across not very big not planets
across not very big not planets
across not very big not planets oh but they’re old they are the
oh but they’re old they are the
oh but they’re old they are the primordial remnants of the formation of
primordial remnants of the formation of
primordial remnants of the formation of our solar system as a scientist I am
our solar system as a scientist I am
our solar system as a scientist I am fascinated by these objects because they
fascinated by these objects because they
fascinated by these objects because they are the building blocks of the planets
are the building blocks of the planets
are the building blocks of the planets and they tell us about that time before
and they tell us about that time before
and they tell us about that time before there were planets so from a scientists
there were planets so from a scientists
there were planets so from a scientists perspective these are amazing things but
perspective these are amazing things but
perspective these are amazing things but also as it turns out the new world so
also as it turns out the new world so
also as it turns out the new world so for a little bit of context here you
for a little bit of context here you
for a little bit of context here you know planetesimals by different names
know planetesimals by different names
know planetesimals by different names there are two broad classes of them one
there are two broad classes of them one
there are two broad classes of them one the asteroids other comets and really
the asteroids other comets and really
the asteroids other comets and really the differences between them are based
the differences between them are based
the differences between them are based on the amount of different compounds
on the amount of different compounds
on the amount of different compounds inside them for instance asteroids have
inside them for instance asteroids have
inside them for instance asteroids have more minerals and metals than organic
more minerals and metals than organic
more minerals and metals than organic material in water whereas comets have
material in water whereas comets have
material in water whereas comets have lots of water and organic material and
lots of water and organic material and
lots of water and organic material and progressively less minerals and metals
progressively less minerals and metals
progressively less minerals and metals as building blocks the asteroids are
as building blocks the asteroids are
as building blocks the asteroids are what we make terrestrial planets out of
what we make terrestrial planets out of
what we make terrestrial planets out of like earth and comets are what we made
like earth and comets are what we made
like earth and comets are what we made the cores of the giant planets out of
the cores of the giant planets out of
the cores of the giant planets out of Jupiter Saturn Uranus and Neptune now
Jupiter Saturn Uranus and Neptune now
Jupiter Saturn Uranus and Neptune now you might be surprised to find this out
you might be surprised to find this out
you might be surprised to find this out but we have only known about these
but we have only known about these
but we have only known about these objects for about 200 years and almost
objects for about 200 years and almost
objects for about 200 years and almost everything that we do know about them we
everything that we do know about them we
everything that we do know about them we have learned in the last few decades now
have learned in the last few decades now
have learned in the last few decades now I would like to tell you that we learned
I would like to tell you that we learned
I would like to tell you that we learned all of this because of some high-minded
all of this because of some high-minded
all of this because of some high-minded desire to learn about our origins and
desire to learn about our origins and
desire to learn about our origins and because my scientific arguments were so
because my scientific arguments were so
because my scientific arguments were so compelling that everybody invested their
compelling that everybody invested their
compelling that everybody invested their resources and studying these objects but
resources and studying these objects but
resources and studying these objects but the real answer is fear we learned about
the real answer is fear we learned about
the real answer is fear we learned about these objects because we’re afraid of
these objects because we’re afraid of
these objects because we’re afraid of them in the 1970s Walter Louise
them in the 1970s Walter Louise
them in the 1970s Walter Louise Elbe Alvarez made the now famous
Elbe Alvarez made the now famous
Elbe Alvarez made the now famous discovery that the non-avian dinosaurs
discovery that the non-avian dinosaurs
discovery that the non-avian dinosaurs appeared to go extinct almost coincident
appeared to go extinct almost coincident
appeared to go extinct almost coincident with a large asteroid impact 65 million
with a large asteroid impact 65 million
with a large asteroid impact 65 million years ago now there are a few things
years ago now there are a few things
years ago now there are a few things that focus the mind quite like the
that focus the mind quite like the
that focus the mind quite like the prospect of sudden fiery death from
prospect of sudden fiery death from
prospect of sudden fiery death from above
above
above and so we instituted a global effort to
and so we instituted a global effort to
and so we instituted a global effort to find every object in our solar system
find every object in our solar system
find every object in our solar system that was more than a hundred metres
that was more than a hundred metres
that was more than a hundred metres across and figure out whether or not it
across and figure out whether or not it
across and figure out whether or not it was going to hit the earth in the future
was going to hit the earth in the future
was going to hit the earth in the future this was a huge enterprise it required
this was a huge enterprise it required
this was a huge enterprise it required dozens of telescopes many countries
dozens of telescopes many countries
dozens of telescopes many countries working together and it’s been ignore
working together and it’s been ignore
working together and it’s been ignore misil in two ways the first is that we
misil in two ways the first is that we
misil in two ways the first is that we have found a huge number of these
have found a huge number of these
have found a huge number of these objects at current count we have
objects at current count we have
objects at current count we have identified something on the order of
identified something on the order of
identified something on the order of half a million planetesimals at orbits
half a million planetesimals at orbits
half a million planetesimals at orbits ranging all the way out to the region
ranging all the way out to the region
ranging all the way out to the region beyond Pluto now I’m going to focus my
beyond Pluto now I’m going to focus my
beyond Pluto now I’m going to focus my talk the rest of this talk on a
talk the rest of this talk on a
talk the rest of this talk on a particular subgroup of that half million
particular subgroup of that half million
particular subgroup of that half million a group of objects that I well we call
a group of objects that I well we call
a group of objects that I well we call near-earth objects or Neos now Neos have
near-earth objects or Neos now Neos have
near-earth objects or Neos now Neos have a common characteristic that common
a common characteristic that common
a common characteristic that common characteristic is is that at some point
characteristic is is that at some point
characteristic is is that at some point in their journey around the Sun they
in their journey around the Sun they
in their journey around the Sun they will approach or cross Earth’s orbit now
will approach or cross Earth’s orbit now
will approach or cross Earth’s orbit now from the perspective of threat that
from the perspective of threat that
from the perspective of threat that makes them sound like the ones we care
makes them sound like the ones we care
makes them sound like the ones we care most about which is true
most about which is true
most about which is true so we dedicate a lot of our effort to
so we dedicate a lot of our effort to
so we dedicate a lot of our effort to looking at Neos trying to identify which
looking at Neos trying to identify which
looking at Neos trying to identify which one of them might be potentially
one of them might be potentially
one of them might be potentially hazardous to us and just like with
hazardous to us and just like with
hazardous to us and just like with everything else we’ve been very
everything else we’ve been very
everything else we’ve been very successful at studying the neo since
successful at studying the neo since
successful at studying the neo since 2000 we’ve discovered almost 15,000 of
2000 we’ve discovered almost 15,000 of
2000 we’ve discovered almost 15,000 of these objects and I sort of put in
these objects and I sort of put in
these objects and I sort of put in perspective here the movie Armageddon
perspective here the movie Armageddon
perspective here the movie Armageddon was released just as it expanded up
was released just as it expanded up
was released just as it expanded up so maybe the movie industry also helped
so maybe the movie industry also helped
so maybe the movie industry also helped fuel this investigation or not but
fuel this investigation or not but
fuel this investigation or not but 15,000 objects that have an orbit that
15,000 objects that have an orbit that
15,000 objects that have an orbit that approach or cross ours now
approach or cross ours now
approach or cross ours now that’s potentially scary except that we
that’s potentially scary except that we
that’s potentially scary except that we have mapped all of these orbits for
have mapped all of these orbits for
have mapped all of these orbits for every one of these objects and not one
every one of these objects and not one
every one of these objects and not one of them is likely to hit us
of them is likely to hit us
of them is likely to hit us best failure ever we are not going to be
best failure ever we are not going to be
best failure ever we are not going to be threatened by any of these objects now
threatened by any of these objects now
threatened by any of these objects now the caution in this and also the good
the caution in this and also the good
the caution in this and also the good news is that we’ve only just started
news is that we’ve only just started
news is that we’ve only just started this process we estimate that there may
this process we estimate that there may
this process we estimate that there may be as many as a hundred thousand to a
be as many as a hundred thousand to a
be as many as a hundred thousand to a million more objects in these orbits
million more objects in these orbits
million more objects in these orbits with diameters below a hundred meters
with diameters below a hundred meters
with diameters below a hundred meters that we have yet to see so maybe one of
that we have yet to see so maybe one of
that we have yet to see so maybe one of those might threaten us in the future
those might threaten us in the future
those might threaten us in the future but right now the numbers look good in
but right now the numbers look good in
but right now the numbers look good in our favor now the side effect of this is
our favor now the side effect of this is
our favor now the side effect of this is the Neos are on our cosmic porch their
the Neos are on our cosmic porch their
the Neos are on our cosmic porch their orbits come close to Earth they don’t
orbits come close to Earth they don’t
orbits come close to Earth they don’t tend to go too far from the Sun they are
tend to go too far from the Sun they are
tend to go too far from the Sun they are rich in water minerals metals other
rich in water minerals metals other
rich in water minerals metals other things and their primordial so we can
things and their primordial so we can
things and their primordial so we can learn more about our origins by looking
learn more about our origins by looking
learn more about our origins by looking at them we can see them more easily and
at them we can see them more easily and
at them we can see them more easily and more importantly if we need to we can
more importantly if we need to we can
more importantly if we need to we can get to them so they are very important
get to them so they are very important
get to them so they are very important scientifically and potentially
scientifically and potentially
scientifically and potentially economically but there is a problem and
economically but there is a problem and
economically but there is a problem and that problem is even with our biggest
that problem is even with our biggest
that problem is even with our biggest telescopes they still look like that
telescopes they still look like that
telescopes they still look like that little dot they’re small they’re too
little dot they’re small they’re too
little dot they’re small they’re too small to be resolved so all we can see
small to be resolved so all we can see
small to be resolved so all we can see is a point of light and we can learn
is a point of light and we can learn
is a point of light and we can learn some things from that point of light we
some things from that point of light we
some things from that point of light we can look at the light that’s reflected
can look at the light that’s reflected
can look at the light that’s reflected off of it and that tells us something
off of it and that tells us something
off of it and that tells us something about the nature of these objects but to
about the nature of these objects but to
about the nature of these objects but to turn them into real-world that we can’t
turn them into real-world that we can’t
turn them into real-world that we can’t do nevertheless it’s what we’ve got and
do nevertheless it’s what we’ve got and
do nevertheless it’s what we’ve got and I like to call this kind of exploration
I like to call this kind of exploration
I like to call this kind of exploration spherical cow exploration it’s all cow
spherical cow exploration it’s all cow
spherical cow exploration it’s all cow it’s missing a few details like legs but
it’s missing a few details like legs but
it’s missing a few details like legs but it’s an average by looking at the
it’s an average by looking at the
it’s an average by looking at the average characteristics of an object we
average characteristics of an object we
average characteristics of an object we can learn something about it how its
can learn something about it how its
can learn something about it how its brightness changes with time tells us a
brightness changes with time tells us a
brightness changes with time tells us a little bit about its rotation its total
little bit about its rotation its total
little bit about its rotation its total brightness tells us a little bit about
brightness tells us a little bit about
brightness tells us a little bit about this size breaking it out into colours
this size breaking it out into colours
this size breaking it out into colours tells us a little bit about its
tells us a little bit about its
tells us a little bit about its composition and even from that limited
composition and even from that limited
composition and even from that limited perspective when we started looking at
perspective when we started looking at
perspective when we started looking at these objects we began to realize that
these objects we began to realize that
these objects we began to realize that an asteroid is not an asteroid it’s not
an asteroid is not an asteroid it’s not
an asteroid is not an asteroid it’s not an asteroid and comet is not a comet
an asteroid and comet is not a comet
an asteroid and comet is not a comet it’s not a comet in fact within these
it’s not a comet in fact within these
it’s not a comet in fact within these groups there’s phenomenal diversity I’ll
groups there’s phenomenal diversity I’ll
groups there’s phenomenal diversity I’ll show you a little bit about what I mean
show you a little bit about what I mean
show you a little bit about what I mean apologize for the complexity of this but
apologize for the complexity of this but
apologize for the complexity of this but there are three broad groups to
there are three broad groups to
there are three broad groups to asteroids we have our stony asteroids
asteroids we have our stony asteroids
asteroids we have our stony asteroids which are mineral-rich our metal
which are mineral-rich our metal
which are mineral-rich our metal asteroids metal-rich and we have what’s
asteroids metal-rich and we have what’s
asteroids metal-rich and we have what’s called chondrites
called chondrites
called chondrites which are water and organic material
which are water and organic material
which are water and organic material rich and within each of these broad
rich and within each of these broad
rich and within each of these broad groups we have these subgroups were
groups we have these subgroups were
groups we have these subgroups were they’re different mixtures of minerals
they’re different mixtures of minerals
they’re different mixtures of minerals metals and chondrites
metals and chondrites
metals and chondrites and each of these groups subdivide
and each of these groups subdivide
and each of these groups subdivide further and then we have a whole group
further and then we have a whole group
further and then we have a whole group of other potential types that we’ve
of other potential types that we’ve
of other potential types that we’ve identified that they’ll fit in any of
identified that they’ll fit in any of
identified that they’ll fit in any of those groups and the more objects we
those groups and the more objects we
those groups and the more objects we observe the more asteroid classes we
observe the more asteroid classes we
observe the more asteroid classes we seem to get and the same is true for
seem to get and the same is true for
seem to get and the same is true for comets now comets are traditionally
comets now comets are traditionally
comets now comets are traditionally divided based on their orbits
divided based on their orbits
divided based on their orbits long period short period and
long period short period and
long period short period and intermediate or Halle type orbits those
intermediate or Halle type orbits those
intermediate or Halle type orbits those orbits tell us about where they come
orbits tell us about where they come
orbits tell us about where they come from it tell us about how much evolve
from it tell us about how much evolve
from it tell us about how much evolve evolution they’ve undergone but even
evolution they’ve undergone but even
evolution they’ve undergone but even within those groups we have little
within those groups we have little
within those groups we have little compositional subgroups and those
compositional subgroups and those
compositional subgroups and those compositional subgroups are based on the
compositional subgroups are based on the
compositional subgroups are based on the amount of water relative to the amount
amount of water relative to the amount
amount of water relative to the amount of organics relative the amount of
of organics relative the amount of
of organics relative the amount of certain volatile like ammonia and
certain volatile like ammonia and
certain volatile like ammonia and cyanide and those groups are distributed
cyanide and those groups are distributed
cyanide and those groups are distributed somewhat differently in the different
somewhat differently in the different
somewhat differently in the different classes but we’re still trying to
classes but we’re still trying to
classes but we’re still trying to understand exactly how they’re organized
understand exactly how they’re organized
understand exactly how they’re organized overall so we can learn something from
overall so we can learn something from
overall so we can learn something from just a point however what we don’t learn
just a point however what we don’t learn
just a point however what we don’t learn from that are the rich details that make
from that are the rich details that make
from that are the rich details that make them worlds we can’t tell you from a
them worlds we can’t tell you from a
them worlds we can’t tell you from a point source what its shape is we can’t
point source what its shape is we can’t
point source what its shape is we can’t really tell you its size we don’t know
really tell you its size we don’t know
really tell you its size we don’t know the axis on which it rotates we don’t
the axis on which it rotates we don’t
the axis on which it rotates we don’t know its density we don’t know if it’s
know its density we don’t know if it’s
know its density we don’t know if it’s uniform and its interior we don’t know
uniform and its interior we don’t know
uniform and its interior we don’t know if it’s uniform on its surface we don’t
if it’s uniform on its surface we don’t
if it’s uniform on its surface we don’t know what its surface is like if we’re
know what its surface is like if we’re
know what its surface is like if we’re just going to go there based on a point
just going to go there based on a point
just going to go there based on a point source we have to make a lot of guesses
source we have to make a lot of guesses
source we have to make a lot of guesses about the environment that we’re going
about the environment that we’re going
about the environment that we’re going to get into and that brings me to the
to get into and that brings me to the
to get into and that brings me to the next part of this exploration which I
next part of this exploration which I
next part of this exploration which I call the one-off part of exploration and
call the one-off part of exploration and
call the one-off part of exploration and this is the traditional NASA model since
this is the traditional NASA model since
this is the traditional NASA model since the mid 1980s we have been launching
the mid 1980s we have been launching
the mid 1980s we have been launching robotic spacecraft to small bodies we’ve
robotic spacecraft to small bodies we’ve
robotic spacecraft to small bodies we’ve been to about 20 of them now so less
been to about 20 of them now so less
been to about 20 of them now so less than 1% of all the objects we know of
than 1% of all the objects we know of
than 1% of all the objects we know of that are near-earth objects these
that are near-earth objects these
that are near-earth objects these spacecraft are really Marvel’s they are
spacecraft are really Marvel’s they are
spacecraft are really Marvel’s they are highly capable they have enormous
highly capable they have enormous
highly capable they have enormous complexity and they’re highly customized
complexity and they’re highly customized
complexity and they’re highly customized to the environment that they’re going to
to the environment that they’re going to
to the environment that they’re going to they’re launched uniquely for one target
they’re launched uniquely for one target
they’re launched uniquely for one target that we identified as being in
that we identified as being in
that we identified as being in particularly important to this
particularly important to this
particularly important to this scientific community and that’s it and a
scientific community and that’s it and a
scientific community and that’s it and a very risk intolerant they need to work
very risk intolerant they need to work
very risk intolerant they need to work they’re expensive some of these are a
they’re expensive some of these are a
they’re expensive some of these are a billion dollars so they’ve made great
billion dollars so they’ve made great
billion dollars so they’ve made great strides they have learned an enormous
strides they have learned an enormous
strides they have learned an enormous amount about small bodies here’s an
amount about small bodies here’s an
amount about small bodies here’s an example of one this is comet 67p
example of one this is comet 67p
example of one this is comet 67p churyumov-gerasimenko it was the target
churyumov-gerasimenko it was the target
churyumov-gerasimenko it was the target of the Rosetta mission this is the
of the Rosetta mission this is the
of the Rosetta mission this is the smallest body we’ve orbited with a
smallest body we’ve orbited with a
smallest body we’ve orbited with a spacecraft by the way and it’s a comet
spacecraft by the way and it’s a comet
spacecraft by the way and it’s a comet an example of a short-period comet and
an example of a short-period comet and
an example of a short-period comet and it’s one of several that we have sent
it’s one of several that we have sent
it’s one of several that we have sent missions to now this comet looks almost
missions to now this comet looks almost
missions to now this comet looks almost nothing like any of the other comets
nothing like any of the other comets
nothing like any of the other comets that we’ve been to it’s a unique world
that we’ve been to it’s a unique world
that we’ve been to it’s a unique world and most of the theories that we had
and most of the theories that we had
and most of the theories that we had before we got there
before we got there
before we got there about how the environment would be they
about how the environment would be they
about how the environment would be they turned out to be wrong we have found gas
turned out to be wrong we have found gas
turned out to be wrong we have found gas compounds that we didn’t believe could
compounds that we didn’t believe could
compounds that we didn’t believe could be present the surface turned out to be
be present the surface turned out to be
be present the surface turned out to be a lot tougher than we thought it would
a lot tougher than we thought it would
a lot tougher than we thought it would be we don’t really understand a lot of
be we don’t really understand a lot of
be we don’t really understand a lot of the features on the surface or how
the features on the surface or how
the features on the surface or how they’re formed and a lot of open
they’re formed and a lot of open
they’re formed and a lot of open questions have been raised about exactly
questions have been raised about exactly
questions have been raised about exactly how comets are assembled in the first
how comets are assembled in the first
how comets are assembled in the first place so our visit to this comet and the
place so our visit to this comet and the
place so our visit to this comet and the other few comets that we’ve looked at
other few comets that we’ve looked at
other few comets that we’ve looked at have ended up being a case of raising
have ended up being a case of raising
have ended up being a case of raising more questions a new answer which is
more questions a new answer which is
more questions a new answer which is really not what you want to do when
really not what you want to do when
really not what you want to do when you’re trying to look at these objects
you’re trying to look at these objects
you’re trying to look at these objects as the new world you want to find common
as the new world you want to find common
as the new world you want to find common characteristics things that will tell
characteristics things that will tell
characteristics things that will tell you what to do but if you can’t then
you what to do but if you can’t then
you what to do but if you can’t then that means that every place you want to
that means that every place you want to
that means that every place you want to go you need to visit beforehand and
go you need to visit beforehand and
go you need to visit beforehand and that’s something that we can’t do with
that’s something that we can’t do with
that’s something that we can’t do with our current model in terms of the
our current model in terms of the
our current model in terms of the exploration in the Americas where we are
exploration in the Americas where we are
exploration in the Americas where we are right now is kind of like the Jamestown
right now is kind of like the Jamestown
right now is kind of like the Jamestown era we know a lot about a few places
era we know a lot about a few places
era we know a lot about a few places that we spent a lot of money and effort
that we spent a lot of money and effort
that we spent a lot of money and effort to get to and we know where North
to get to and we know where North
to get to and we know where North America is generally and we kind of know
America is generally and we kind of know
America is generally and we kind of know how big it is but we don’t know where
how big it is but we don’t know where
how big it is but we don’t know where the rivers are we don’t know where the
the rivers are we don’t know where the
the rivers are we don’t know where the mountains are we don’t know where you
mountains are we don’t know where you
mountains are we don’t know where you can grow food we don’t know where it
can grow food we don’t know where it
can grow food we don’t know where it rains where it doesn’t where the
rains where it doesn’t where the
rains where it doesn’t where the tornadoes happen where the Bears are we
tornadoes happen where the Bears are we
tornadoes happen where the Bears are we don’t know the details and based on this
don’t know the details and based on this
don’t know the details and based on this map we don’t even know where the Pacific
map we don’t even know where the Pacific
map we don’t even know where the Pacific Northwest is so if we’re going to
Northwest is so if we’re going to
Northwest is so if we’re going to explore Neos same way that we explore
North America we need to go at it the
North America we need to go at it the same way what made it possible for us to
same way what made it possible for us to
same way what made it possible for us to go from the Jamestown era to the modern
go from the Jamestown era to the modern
go from the Jamestown era to the modern era was a combination of motivation and
era was a combination of motivation and
era was a combination of motivation and technology and that’s where we are right
technology and that’s where we are right
technology and that’s where we are right now
now
now so I’ve already explained do we have
so I’ve already explained do we have
so I’ve already explained do we have scientific motivation that’s my thing
scientific motivation that’s my thing
scientific motivation that’s my thing but we also have economic motivation in
but we also have economic motivation in
but we also have economic motivation in two areas first is launch so it costs
two areas first is launch so it costs
two areas first is launch so it costs between 5,000 and 10,000 euros to take
between 5,000 and 10,000 euros to take
between 5,000 and 10,000 euros to take one kilogram of material from the
one kilogram of material from the
one kilogram of material from the surface of earth and put it in space
surface of earth and put it in space
surface of earth and put it in space that’s an enormous incentive to build
that’s an enormous incentive to build
that’s an enormous incentive to build things in space as opposed to launching
things in space as opposed to launching
things in space as opposed to launching them in space that’s a lot of money if
them in space that’s a lot of money if
them in space that’s a lot of money if we have material there to do it it’s
we have material there to do it it’s
we have material there to do it it’s worth exploiting that and we do and
worth exploiting that and we do and
worth exploiting that and we do and that’s the second part of this
that’s the second part of this
that’s the second part of this motivation there is tremendous wealth in
motivation there is tremendous wealth in
motivation there is tremendous wealth in near-earth objects and asteroids in
near-earth objects and asteroids in
near-earth objects and asteroids in general they are loaded with metals like
general they are loaded with metals like
general they are loaded with metals like gold platinum iron rare earths water
gold platinum iron rare earths water
gold platinum iron rare earths water other organic materials phosphorus we
other organic materials phosphorus we
other organic materials phosphorus we know of one asteroid psyche that may
know of one asteroid psyche that may
know of one asteroid psyche that may contain enough iron to meet our current
contain enough iron to meet our current
contain enough iron to meet our current needs for steel for more than a million
needs for steel for more than a million
needs for steel for more than a million years there are now economists doing
years there are now economists doing
years there are now economists doing forecasts that suggest that the total
forecasts that suggest that the total
forecasts that suggest that the total value of mining this population of
value of mining this population of
value of mining this population of material could be the equivalent of a
material could be the equivalent of a
material could be the equivalent of a hundred billion euros per person on
hundred billion euros per person on
hundred billion euros per person on earth an enormous amount of wealth so we
earth an enormous amount of wealth so we
earth an enormous amount of wealth so we have massive economic and scientific
have massive economic and scientific
have massive economic and scientific reasons for doing this the technology
reasons for doing this the technology
reasons for doing this the technology needs to come along and the good news is
needs to come along and the good news is
needs to come along and the good news is it has over the last two decades or so
it has over the last two decades or so
it has over the last two decades or so there has been an explosion of micro
there has been an explosion of micro
there has been an explosion of micro satellite technology cube SATs small
satellite technology cube SATs small
satellite technology cube SATs small SATs these are smaller more compact
SATs these are smaller more compact
SATs these are smaller more compact easier to fly less expensive missions
easier to fly less expensive missions
easier to fly less expensive missions that can go do things that we wouldn’t
that can go do things that we wouldn’t
that can go do things that we wouldn’t risk a billion-dollar spacecraft to do
risk a billion-dollar spacecraft to do
risk a billion-dollar spacecraft to do and as these become more capable we
and as these become more capable we
and as these become more capable we become more able to do what I call a
become more able to do what I call a
become more able to do what I call a high-throughput investigation which
high-throughput investigation which
high-throughput investigation which means that we can look at a lot of these
means that we can look at a lot of these
means that we can look at a lot of these objects to assess their scientific and
objects to assess their scientific and
objects to assess their scientific and economic value to us and I’m not alone
economic value to us and I’m not alone
economic value to us and I’m not alone in thinking about this there are whole
in thinking about this there are whole
in thinking about this there are whole corporations that have been formed
corporations that have been formed
corporations that have been formed around the idea of utilizing resources
around the idea of utilizing resources
around the idea of utilizing resources in space companies like Planetary
in space companies like Planetary
in space companies like Planetary Resources and deep space initiatives in
Resources and deep space initiatives in
Resources and deep space initiatives in Europe the government of Luxembourg has
Europe the government of Luxembourg has
Europe the government of Luxembourg has made a several hundred million euro bet
made a several hundred million euro bet
made a several hundred million euro bet that they can become the nation of space
that they can become the nation of space
that they can become the nation of space mining and there are educational
mining and there are educational
mining and there are educational institutions like my home institution of
institutions like my home institution of
institutions like my home institution of the University of Arizona where we are
the University of Arizona where we are
the University of Arizona where we are developing educational programs to
developing educational programs to
developing educational programs to address the ethical technical and
address the ethical technical and
address the ethical technical and scientific issues that are going to be
scientific issues that are going to be
scientific issues that are going to be coming when we begin to exploit these
coming when we begin to exploit these
coming when we begin to exploit these resources for our own use now to me the
resources for our own use now to me the
resources for our own use now to me the key to getting there is that bottom part
key to getting there is that bottom part
key to getting there is that bottom part of the of the Venn diagram I showed you
of the of the Venn diagram I showed you
of the of the Venn diagram I showed you which is high-throughput investigation
which is high-throughput investigation
which is high-throughput investigation with small satellites and in my group at
with small satellites and in my group at
with small satellites and in my group at the University of Arizona we have been
the University of Arizona we have been
the University of Arizona we have been working to develop a concept for this
working to develop a concept for this
working to develop a concept for this that we call Wayfarer and a Wayfarer is
that we call Wayfarer and a Wayfarer is
that we call Wayfarer and a Wayfarer is a very small spacecraft maybe about this
a very small spacecraft maybe about this
a very small spacecraft maybe about this big by this big weighs maybe 20 to 25
big by this big weighs maybe 20 to 25
big by this big weighs maybe 20 to 25 kilograms it has one or two scientific
kilograms it has one or two scientific
kilograms it has one or two scientific instruments that are tailored for
instruments that are tailored for
instruments that are tailored for looking at small bodies and learning the
looking at small bodies and learning the
looking at small bodies and learning the maximum amount from them we can build
maximum amount from them we can build
maximum amount from them we can build these using a common format that common
these using a common format that common
these using a common format that common format allows assembly line construction
format allows assembly line construction
format allows assembly line construction assembly line construction brings down
assembly line construction brings down
assembly line construction brings down its cost even more and so an individual
its cost even more and so an individual
its cost even more and so an individual one of these spacecraft could cost less
one of these spacecraft could cost less
one of these spacecraft could cost less than 1% of one of these bigger
than 1% of one of these bigger
than 1% of one of these bigger spacecraft that we sent to one object in
spacecraft that we sent to one object in
spacecraft that we sent to one object in addition to the cost of the spacecraft
addition to the cost of the spacecraft
addition to the cost of the spacecraft as well the mission design is flexible
as well the mission design is flexible
as well the mission design is flexible instead of launching one time with one
instead of launching one time with one
instead of launching one time with one rocket to send in one object to one
rocket to send in one object to one
rocket to send in one object to one place we shove these into the nooks and
place we shove these into the nooks and
place we shove these into the nooks and crannies of every launch vehicle that
crannies of every launch vehicle that
crannies of every launch vehicle that goes up commercial scientific military
goes up commercial scientific military
goes up commercial scientific military you name it we put it in there and once
you name it we put it in there and once
you name it we put it in there and once these objects get into orbit these
these objects get into orbit these
these objects get into orbit these Wayfarers they go and transition
Wayfarers they go and transition
Wayfarers they go and transition themselves to an orbital parking lot
themselves to an orbital parking lot
themselves to an orbital parking lot beyond the moon where they sit and wait
beyond the moon where they sit and wait
beyond the moon where they sit and wait for us to tell them where to explore and
for us to tell them where to explore and
for us to tell them where to explore and when we do that they can do all kinds of
when we do that they can do all kinds of
when we do that they can do all kinds of things we can send them to an asteroid
things we can send them to an asteroid
things we can send them to an asteroid or a comet and have it go into orbit
or a comet and have it go into orbit
or a comet and have it go into orbit like the Rosetta spacecraft did we can
like the Rosetta spacecraft did we can
like the Rosetta spacecraft did we can study it in great detail or if we just
study it in great detail or if we just
study it in great detail or if we just want to see a lot of objects we can fly
want to see a lot of objects we can fly
want to see a lot of objects we can fly one or two of them by a number of small
one or two of them by a number of small
one or two of them by a number of small bodies just to get a sense of what’s
bodies just to get a sense of what’s
bodies just to get a sense of what’s going on we can also have multiple
going on we can also have multiple
going on we can also have multiple spacecraft work together in an
spacecraft work together in an
spacecraft work together in an environment about a body and we can send
environment about a body and we can send
environment about a body and we can send them out on a mission from place to
them out on a mission from place to
them out on a mission from place to place orbiting one orbiting another
place orbiting one orbiting another
place orbiting one orbiting another orbiting another and then coming back to
orbiting another and then coming back to
orbiting another and then coming back to the orbital parking lot all of those are
the orbital parking lot all of those are
the orbital parking lot all of those are options for us and we could even play
options for us and we could even play
options for us and we could even play exotic games where we put one in orbit
exotic games where we put one in orbit
exotic games where we put one in orbit around an object and then we put another
around an object and then we put another
around an object and then we put another object in a position to hit an asteroid
object in a position to hit an asteroid
object in a position to hit an asteroid to look at what’s inside we can do this
to look at what’s inside we can do this
to look at what’s inside we can do this because these objects are cheap easily
because these objects are cheap easily
because these objects are cheap easily replicated but capable enough to deliver
replicated but capable enough to deliver
replicated but capable enough to deliver the science we want now we are one of
the science we want now we are one of
the science we want now we are one of only or one of several I should say
only or one of several I should say
only or one of several I should say organizations that are looking at this
organizations that are looking at this
organizations that are looking at this kind of technology
kind of technology
kind of technology there were corporations governments and
there were corporations governments and
there were corporations governments and businesses or in universities that are
businesses or in universities that are
businesses or in universities that are also trying to build their own version
also trying to build their own version
also trying to build their own version of Wayfarer and they have different
of Wayfarer and they have different
of Wayfarer and they have different emphasis I don’t know which of these is
emphasis I don’t know which of these is
emphasis I don’t know which of these is going to be the one that succeeds
going to be the one that succeeds
going to be the one that succeeds I hope it’s us but I do know that
I hope it’s us but I do know that
I hope it’s us but I do know that somebody is going to get this right and
somebody is going to get this right and
somebody is going to get this right and we are going to go out and have an
we are going to go out and have an
we are going to go out and have an explosive exploration of near-earth
explosive exploration of near-earth
explosive exploration of near-earth space we’re going to find these
space we’re going to find these
space we’re going to find these resources and once we do we open up the
resources and once we do we open up the
resources and once we do we open up the opportunity to colonize our new world
opportunity to colonize our new world
opportunity to colonize our new world this is a long game it won’t be us but
this is a long game it won’t be us but
this is a long game it won’t be us but our grandchildren or their grandchildren
our grandchildren or their grandchildren
our grandchildren or their grandchildren may live in buildings built with steel
may live in buildings built with steel
may live in buildings built with steel from asteroids they may eat food grown
from asteroids they may eat food grown
from asteroids they may eat food grown in soil that was either composed of or
in soil that was either composed of or
in soil that was either composed of or fortified by material we brought back
fortified by material we brought back
fortified by material we brought back from asteroids and comets they may drink
from asteroids and comets they may drink
from asteroids and comets they may drink water that was mine from a comet that’s
water that was mine from a comet that’s
water that was mine from a comet that’s also being used as fuel on the
also being used as fuel on the
also being used as fuel on the spacecraft on which they live work and
spacecraft on which they live work and
spacecraft on which they live work and travel and they’ll have all that wealth
travel and they’ll have all that wealth
travel and they’ll have all that wealth that we were talking about that is our
that we were talking about that is our
that we were talking about that is our Shore in the Bahamas we’re standing
Shore in the Bahamas we’re standing
Shore in the Bahamas we’re standing there today
there today
there today it’s a new world thank you
it’s a new world thank you
it’s a new world thank you [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] [Music]
”
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