so back in 2004 I was driving my lovely spouse to a conference she is an
spouse to a conference she is an
spouse to a conference she is an obstetrician gynecologist and was
obstetrician gynecologist and was
obstetrician gynecologist and was working as such at the time and the big
working as such at the time and the big
working as such at the time and the big national conference in her field was
national conference in her field was
national conference in her field was being held in Philadelphia now I’m a
being held in Philadelphia now I’m a
being held in Philadelphia now I’m a academic computer scientist I’m a
academic computer scientist I’m a
academic computer scientist I’m a computer science professor I’ve been to
computer science professor I’ve been to
computer science professor I’ve been to lots of conferences I knew what to
lots of conferences I knew what to
lots of conferences I knew what to expect and so I was sort of surprised
expect and so I was sort of surprised
expect and so I was sort of surprised when I got there and discovered that
when I got there and discovered that
when I got there and discovered that right there at the conference where the
right there at the conference where the
right there at the conference where the attendees had to enter there were
attendees had to enter there were
attendees had to enter there were protesters carrying signs and chanting
protesters carrying signs and chanting
protesters carrying signs and chanting and I thought to myself that doesn’t
and I thought to myself that doesn’t
and I thought to myself that doesn’t really make any sense this is a ob/gyn
really make any sense this is a ob/gyn
really make any sense this is a ob/gyn conference they’re about trying to
conference they’re about trying to
conference they’re about trying to improve women’s health I don’t see much
improve women’s health I don’t see much
improve women’s health I don’t see much to protest here but the fact that matter
to protest here but the fact that matter
to protest here but the fact that matter is that the stuff that they do in
is that the stuff that they do in
is that the stuff that they do in obstetrics and gynecology is it touches
obstetrics and gynecology is it touches
obstetrics and gynecology is it touches some some hot-button issues so they work
some some hot-button issues so they work
some some hot-button issues so they work on abortion they do contraception some
on abortion they do contraception some
on abortion they do contraception some of the protesters there were actually
of the protesters there were actually
of the protesters there were actually protesting circumcision so there was I
protesting circumcision so there was I
protesting circumcision so there was I don’t know why that’s an issue but
don’t know why that’s an issue but
don’t know why that’s an issue but that’s that’s what they were concerned
that’s that’s what they were concerned
that’s that’s what they were concerned about so they were marching around and I
about so they were marching around and I
about so they were marching around and I thought to myself wow I’m I’m really
thought to myself wow I’m I’m really
thought to myself wow I’m I’m really glad I’m not in a field where people are
glad I’m not in a field where people are
glad I’m not in a field where people are protesting and getting all upset but
protesting and getting all upset but
protesting and getting all upset but then I thought about it a little bit
then I thought about it a little bit
then I thought about it a little bit more and I realized ways again what I do
more and I realized ways again what I do
more and I realized ways again what I do is is studying artificial intelligence
is is studying artificial intelligence
is is studying artificial intelligence we’re trying to make machines that have
we’re trying to make machines that have
we’re trying to make machines that have the kinds of intelligence that people
the kinds of intelligence that people
the kinds of intelligence that people have and if we’re successful there’s
have and if we’re successful there’s
have and if we’re successful there’s very few things more threatening to our
very few things more threatening to our
very few things more threatening to our identity as human beings as our ability
identity as human beings as our ability
identity as human beings as our ability to think intelligently and to think at
to think intelligently and to think at
to think intelligently and to think at all so you know if we were doing our job
all so you know if we were doing our job
all so you know if we were doing our job well people would be upset probably the
well people would be upset probably the
well people would be upset probably the fact that we don’t have protesters means
fact that we don’t have protesters means
fact that we don’t have protesters means we’re just not doing a very good job
we’re just not doing a very good job
we’re just not doing a very good job so just imagining a time in the future
so just imagining a time in the future
so just imagining a time in the future when when in fact artificial
when when in fact artificial
when when in fact artificial intelligence is being protested and I
intelligence is being protested and I
intelligence is being protested and I thought okay well that would be a sign
thought okay well that would be a sign
thought okay well that would be a sign that we’re doing better
that we’re doing better
that we’re doing better well anyway flash-forward some 13 years
well anyway flash-forward some 13 years
well anyway flash-forward some 13 years and this summer here in Providence the
and this summer here in Providence the
and this summer here in Providence the annual meeting of of the governors of
annual meeting of of the governors of
annual meeting of of the governors of the states in the US all got together
the states in the US all got together
the states in the US all got together and
and
and met and tried to talk about their shared
met and tried to talk about their shared
met and tried to talk about their shared problems and one of their speakers one
problems and one of their speakers one
problems and one of their speakers one of their invited speakers was a fellow
of their invited speakers was a fellow
of their invited speakers was a fellow by the name of Elon Musk
by the name of Elon Musk
by the name of Elon Musk now Elon Musk is a tech entrepreneur
now Elon Musk is a tech entrepreneur
now Elon Musk is a tech entrepreneur he’s the head of SpaceX and also Tesla
he’s the head of SpaceX and also Tesla
he’s the head of SpaceX and also Tesla Motors the electric car company and he
Motors the electric car company and he
Motors the electric car company and he got in front of people and said that of
got in front of people and said that of
got in front of people and said that of all the things that we should be worried
all the things that we should be worried
all the things that we should be worried about his governor’s AI that’s the thing
about his governor’s AI that’s the thing
about his governor’s AI that’s the thing artificial intelligence you should
artificial intelligence you should
artificial intelligence you should really be very concerned about that it
really be very concerned about that it
really be very concerned about that it represents a fundamental existential
represents a fundamental existential
represents a fundamental existential threat like human extinction is on the
threat like human extinction is on the
threat like human extinction is on the line if we don’t regulate it and and and
line if we don’t regulate it and and and
line if we don’t regulate it and and and deal with these problems appropriately
deal with these problems appropriately
deal with these problems appropriately so that’s that seems really concerning
so that’s that seems really concerning
so that’s that seems really concerning he doesn’t he hasn’t he didn’t express
he doesn’t he hasn’t he didn’t express
he doesn’t he hasn’t he didn’t express at the time what the argument was why it
at the time what the argument was why it
at the time what the argument was why it why it was it was something that we was
why it was it was something that we was
why it was it was something that we was afraid of but he said you know I’m
afraid of but he said you know I’m
afraid of but he said you know I’m afraid and you should be very afraid now
afraid and you should be very afraid now
afraid and you should be very afraid now I’m not afraid and I want to kind of
I’m not afraid and I want to kind of
I’m not afraid and I want to kind of convey to you what the issues are why it
convey to you what the issues are why it
convey to you what the issues are why it is that he’s concerned and why it is
is that he’s concerned and why it is
is that he’s concerned and why it is that say I’m not concerned and give you
that say I’m not concerned and give you
that say I’m not concerned and give you a sort of idea what the future it might
a sort of idea what the future it might
a sort of idea what the future it might look like with respect to artificial
look like with respect to artificial
look like with respect to artificial intelligence so I think I think the most
intelligence so I think I think the most
intelligence so I think I think the most important thing to say right off the bat
important thing to say right off the bat
important thing to say right off the bat is that there are at least two different
is that there are at least two different
is that there are at least two different ways that people use the term artificial
ways that people use the term artificial
ways that people use the term artificial intelligence so artificial intelligence
intelligence so artificial intelligence
intelligence so artificial intelligence is a research field that we study in
is a research field that we study in
is a research field that we study in computer science we we build robots we
computer science we we build robots we
computer science we we build robots we make programs that make various kinds of
make programs that make various kinds of
make programs that make various kinds of decisions and that’s something that we
decisions and that’s something that we
decisions and that’s something that we study day to day and it’s been it’s been
study day to day and it’s been it’s been
study day to day and it’s been it’s been underway for quite some time but
underway for quite some time but
underway for quite some time but artificial intelligence is also a term
artificial intelligence is also a term
artificial intelligence is also a term that’s used in science fiction to
that’s used in science fiction to
that’s used in science fiction to represent this sort of notion of
represent this sort of notion of
represent this sort of notion of machines that have become aware of their
machines that have become aware of their
machines that have become aware of their environments aware of what their
environments aware of what their
environments aware of what their capabilities are they can plan ahead
capabilities are they can plan ahead
capabilities are they can plan ahead they can they can make their own
they can they can make their own
they can they can make their own decisions and their own goals and and
decisions and their own goals and and
decisions and their own goals and and pursue them and to be clear this this
pursue them and to be clear this this
pursue them and to be clear this this first kind of artificial intelligence is
first kind of artificial intelligence is
first kind of artificial intelligence is something that we have with us today and
something that we have with us today and
something that we have with us today and it’s as Kip was mentioning it’s it’s
it’s as Kip was mentioning it’s it’s
it’s as Kip was mentioning it’s it’s it’s hard to get it to get robots to do
it’s hard to get it to get robots to do
it’s hard to get it to get robots to do interesting things to get software to
interesting things to get software to
interesting things to get software to not be stupid but there’s also this
not be stupid but there’s also this
not be stupid but there’s also this notion of artificial intelligence that
notion of artificial intelligence that
notion of artificial intelligence that we might call artificial general
we might call artificial general
we might call artificial general intelligence systems that are as smart
intelligence systems that are as smart
intelligence systems that are as smart as people across the boards and this is
as people across the boards and this is
as people across the boards and this is something that doesn’t exist you can
something that doesn’t exist you can
something that doesn’t exist you can think of artificial intelligence is
think of artificial intelligence is
think of artificial intelligence is being represented by the kinds of robots
being represented by the kinds of robots
being represented by the kinds of robots that are stumbling around today
that are stumbling around today
that are stumbling around today and you can think of artificial general
and you can think of artificial general
and you can think of artificial general intelligence as maybe the kind of robots
intelligence as maybe the kind of robots
intelligence as maybe the kind of robots that you might see in a Terminator movie
that you might see in a Terminator movie
that you might see in a Terminator movie who are you know out to destroy us and
who are you know out to destroy us and
who are you know out to destroy us and are very good at their jobs and they’ll
are very good at their jobs and they’ll
are very good at their jobs and they’ll be back
be back
be back so I think to understand this
so I think to understand this
so I think to understand this distinction and understand why why I’m
distinction and understand why why I’m
distinction and understand why why I’m not concerned part of it is is the
not concerned part of it is is the
not concerned part of it is is the extrapolation from the AI that we have
extrapolation from the AI that we have
extrapolation from the AI that we have now to this kind of hypothetical AI that
now to this kind of hypothetical AI that
now to this kind of hypothetical AI that we that we don’t know how to build that
we that we don’t know how to build that
we that we don’t know how to build that we don’t know that it exists so that it
we don’t know that it exists so that it
we don’t know that it exists so that it could exist is is that is the main issue
could exist is is that is the main issue
could exist is is that is the main issue that that I want to try to get across so
that that I want to try to get across so
that that I want to try to get across so let me say a few words about what
let me say a few words about what
let me say a few words about what artificial intelligence is if you don’t
artificial intelligence is if you don’t
artificial intelligence is if you don’t know a little bit about the history so
know a little bit about the history so
know a little bit about the history so back in 1956 a group of researchers
back in 1956 a group of researchers
back in 1956 a group of researchers early computer scientists who are just
early computer scientists who are just
early computer scientists who are just getting to think about what computers
getting to think about what computers
getting to think about what computers can do we’re very interested in making
can do we’re very interested in making
can do we’re very interested in making computers that that could exhibit the
computers that that could exhibit the
computers that that could exhibit the kinds of computational processes or
kinds of computational processes or
kinds of computational processes or thought processes that people have they
thought processes that people have they
thought processes that people have they decided they’d get together at Dartmouth
decided they’d get together at Dartmouth
decided they’d get together at Dartmouth College and they’d work it all out and
College and they’d work it all out and
College and they’d work it all out and maybe over the course of a summer they
maybe over the course of a summer they
maybe over the course of a summer they would solve this and then you know we
would solve this and then you know we
would solve this and then you know we can all get on with with other things
can all get on with with other things
can all get on with with other things and some of the problems that they
and some of the problems that they
and some of the problems that they identified were things like how do you
identified were things like how do you
identified were things like how do you make machines that use language how do
make machines that use language how do
make machines that use language how do you make machines that can improve
you make machines that can improve
you make machines that can improve themselves it can learn from their
themselves it can learn from their
themselves it can learn from their experience these are great goals and in
experience these are great goals and in
experience these are great goals and in fact they’ve kept us busy for some 60
fact they’ve kept us busy for some 60
fact they’ve kept us busy for some 60 years since then but they didn’t solve
years since then but they didn’t solve
years since then but they didn’t solve it over the summer obviously but in fact
it over the summer obviously but in fact
it over the summer obviously but in fact a lot of progress has been made and so
a lot of progress has been made and so
a lot of progress has been made and so let me say a few words about various
let me say a few words about various
let me say a few words about various ways that artificial intelligence is
ways that artificial intelligence is
ways that artificial intelligence is with us today so one thing is you know
with us today so one thing is you know
with us today so one thing is you know maybe you have an artificial
maybe you have an artificial
maybe you have an artificial intelligence piece of software in your
intelligence piece of software in your
intelligence piece of software in your pocket these these devices that actually
pocket these these devices that actually
pocket these these devices that actually let you navigate to locations in the
let you navigate to locations in the
let you navigate to locations in the world are just chock-a-block full of the
world are just chock-a-block full of the
world are just chock-a-block full of the kinds of AI systems that we’ve been
kinds of AI systems that we’ve been
kinds of AI systems that we’ve been designing the field has been designing
designing the field has been designing
designing the field has been designing for decades so just to spell it out
for decades so just to spell it out
for decades so just to spell it out maybe in a little bit of detail you
maybe in a little bit of detail you
maybe in a little bit of detail you might want to ask your phone how to
might want to ask your phone how to
might want to ask your phone how to navigate from here to power Street in
navigate from here to power Street in
navigate from here to power Street in Providence and so to do that you know
Providence and so to do that you know
Providence and so to do that you know you take out your phone and you speak at
you take out your phone and you speak at
you take out your phone and you speak at it and what the phone receives is a
it and what the phone receives is a
it and what the phone receives is a speech signal so this is the speech
speech signal so this is the speech
speech signal so this is the speech signal of me actually saying take me to
signal of me actually saying take me to
signal of me actually saying take me to power Street and that’s what it looks
power Street and that’s what it looks
power Street and that’s what it looks like it’s it’s just a bunch of patterns
like it’s it’s just a bunch of patterns
like it’s it’s just a bunch of patterns or numbers the problem of speech
or numbers the problem of speech
or numbers the problem of speech recognition is the problem of turning
recognition is the problem of turning
recognition is the problem of turning that that sig
that that sig
that that sig that speech signal into words into
that speech signal into words into
that speech signal into words into symbols and that’s a problem that’s been
symbols and that’s a problem that’s been
symbols and that’s a problem that’s been with us for a long time and people made
with us for a long time and people made
with us for a long time and people made a tremendous amount of progress on it in
a tremendous amount of progress on it in
a tremendous amount of progress on it in the last you know five to ten years and
the last you know five to ten years and
the last you know five to ten years and now speech recognition kind of works but
now speech recognition kind of works but
now speech recognition kind of works but that’s not the end of the AI just in
that’s not the end of the AI just in
that’s not the end of the AI just in getting directions you also need to turn
getting directions you also need to turn
getting directions you also need to turn that that list of symbols into meaning
that that list of symbols into meaning
that that list of symbols into meaning like what is it that you want the phone
like what is it that you want the phone
like what is it that you want the phone to do and so this process of
to do and so this process of
to do and so this process of interpreting the individual symbols the
interpreting the individual symbols the
interpreting the individual symbols the language symbols and and and figuring
language symbols and and and figuring
language symbols and and and figuring out what the intent is is sometimes
out what the intent is is sometimes
out what the intent is is sometimes referred to as natural language
referred to as natural language
referred to as natural language processing it’s another problem of
processing it’s another problem of
processing it’s another problem of getting computers to use language and
getting computers to use language and
getting computers to use language and this also is something where we’ve made
this also is something where we’ve made
this also is something where we’ve made a lot of progress in the last few years
a lot of progress in the last few years
a lot of progress in the last few years and now we can reliably recognize when
and now we can reliably recognize when
and now we can reliably recognize when you ask the phone for something you know
you ask the phone for something you know
you ask the phone for something you know what it is that you’re asking for maybe
what it is that you’re asking for maybe
what it is that you’re asking for maybe not entirely reliably but but very
not entirely reliably but but very
not entirely reliably but but very reliable enough so that we’ve fielded
reliable enough so that we’ve fielded
reliable enough so that we’ve fielded this to millions and millions of people
this to millions and millions of people
this to millions and millions of people so in addition to using language the
so in addition to using language the
so in addition to using language the system also learns from its experience
system also learns from its experience
system also learns from its experience and so the way that machine learning
and so the way that machine learning
and so the way that machine learning comes into play in this kind of system
comes into play in this kind of system
comes into play in this kind of system is when you’re when the system is trying
is when you’re when the system is trying
is when you’re when the system is trying to figure out what path you should take
to figure out what path you should take
to figure out what path you should take to get to power Street what it’s
to get to power Street what it’s
to get to power Street what it’s actually doing is evaluating all the
actually doing is evaluating all the
actually doing is evaluating all the possible different routes and figuring
possible different routes and figuring
possible different routes and figuring out which one is going to lead to the
out which one is going to lead to the
out which one is going to lead to the the fastest travel time to get you there
the fastest travel time to get you there
the fastest travel time to get you there in the shortest amount of time to do
in the shortest amount of time to do
in the shortest amount of time to do that it actually has to make estimates
that it actually has to make estimates
that it actually has to make estimates it has to say okay here’s a little piece
it has to say okay here’s a little piece
it has to say okay here’s a little piece of the street say South Water Street how
of the street say South Water Street how
of the street say South Water Street how long is that going to take to traverse
long is that going to take to traverse
long is that going to take to traverse now you can say well just use the speed
now you can say well just use the speed
now you can say well just use the speed limit but that’s not exactly what people
limit but that’s not exactly what people
limit but that’s not exactly what people typically do there could be traffic
typically do there could be traffic
typically do there could be traffic there could be you know delays of
there could be you know delays of
there could be you know delays of various sorts and so the ability to
various sorts and so the ability to
various sorts and so the ability to predict based on features like well
predict based on features like well
predict based on features like well where is this piece of road how big a
where is this piece of road how big a
where is this piece of road how big a road is it what time of day is it what
road is it what time of day is it what
road is it what time of day is it what day of the week is it all those things
day of the week is it all those things
day of the week is it all those things get factored in together to generate
get factored in together to generate
get factored in together to generate some kind of prediction and these
some kind of prediction and these
some kind of prediction and these predictions are improved by feeding the
predictions are improved by feeding the
predictions are improved by feeding the Machine lots and lots and lots of data
Machine lots and lots and lots of data
Machine lots and lots and lots of data so anyway in the big picture all these
so anyway in the big picture all these
so anyway in the big picture all these different little AI subproblems come
different little AI subproblems come
different little AI subproblems come together to provide something that is
together to provide something that is
together to provide something that is very valuable to people and it doesn’t
very valuable to people and it doesn’t
very valuable to people and it doesn’t seem so scary right that’s not taking
seem so scary right that’s not taking
seem so scary right that’s not taking over the world that’s not destroying us
over the world that’s not destroying us
over the world that’s not destroying us in any way that’s kind of helping us get
in any way that’s kind of helping us get
in any way that’s kind of helping us get from place to place what’s what’s the
from place to place what’s what’s the
from place to place what’s what’s the missing step here and so the way that I
missing step here and so the way that I
missing step here and so the way that I like to think about this
like to think about this
like to think about this well if you think about a system that’s
well if you think about a system that’s
well if you think about a system that’s actually say taking you from place to
actually say taking you from place to
actually say taking you from place to place within a city maybe even helping
place within a city maybe even helping
place within a city maybe even helping to drive you around that’s really
to drive you around that’s really
to drive you around that’s really subsuming the capabilities of a human
subsuming the capabilities of a human
subsuming the capabilities of a human job the job of being say a taxi driver
job the job of being say a taxi driver
job the job of being say a taxi driver and so we don’t have this quite yet but
and so we don’t have this quite yet but
and so we don’t have this quite yet but it’s really not hard to imagine in the
it’s really not hard to imagine in the
it’s really not hard to imagine in the near future having a system that can do
near future having a system that can do
near future having a system that can do all the things that a taxi driver can do
all the things that a taxi driver can do
all the things that a taxi driver can do and to get you from place to place
and to get you from place to place
and to get you from place to place and once that happens we have an AI
and once that happens we have an AI
and once that happens we have an AI system that has all the capabilities
system that has all the capabilities
system that has all the capabilities that it has plus it can be a taxi driver
that it has plus it can be a taxi driver
that it has plus it can be a taxi driver okay well if it can do that what else
okay well if it can do that what else
okay well if it can do that what else can it do it’s not too hard to imagine
can it do it’s not too hard to imagine
can it do it’s not too hard to imagine that the job of say radiologist would
that the job of say radiologist would
that the job of say radiologist would also be something that we could you know
also be something that we could you know
also be something that we could you know absorb into the into the AI system a
absorb into the into the AI system a
absorb into the into the AI system a radiologist takes data about you know
radiologist takes data about you know
radiologist takes data about you know slides or x-rays taken in the human body
slides or x-rays taken in the human body
slides or x-rays taken in the human body and it may can they can make various
and it may can they can make various
and it may can they can make various kinds of diagnosis that seems like a
kinds of diagnosis that seems like a
kinds of diagnosis that seems like a very a is sort of problem I think we can
very a is sort of problem I think we can
very a is sort of problem I think we can do that one too we can again we don’t
do that one too we can again we don’t
do that one too we can again we don’t have this yet but it’s it’s not hard to
have this yet but it’s it’s not hard to
have this yet but it’s it’s not hard to imagine a time when the system has now
imagine a time when the system has now
imagine a time when the system has now absorbed as well the job of radiologists
absorbed as well the job of radiologists
absorbed as well the job of radiologists okay well what’s what would be next now
okay well what’s what would be next now
okay well what’s what would be next now Here I am sitting in my lab maybe with
Here I am sitting in my lab maybe with
Here I am sitting in my lab maybe with my students and I think to myself okay
my students and I think to myself okay
my students and I think to myself okay well if we can do those things what else
well if we can do those things what else
well if we can do those things what else can we do maybe we can maybe we can
can we do maybe we can maybe we can
can we do maybe we can maybe we can absorb my job or maybe I wouldn’t think
absorb my job or maybe I wouldn’t think
absorb my job or maybe I wouldn’t think about it that we might think I could
about it that we might think I could
about it that we might think I could absorb the job of all my students
absorb the job of all my students
absorb the job of all my students replace them with it with the machine so
replace them with it with the machine so
replace them with it with the machine so we could we could all work together and
we could we could all work together and
we could we could all work together and design a piece of AI software that can
design a piece of AI software that can
design a piece of AI software that can do the things that an AI researcher can
do the things that an AI researcher can
do the things that an AI researcher can do can we can come up with ideas for
do can we can come up with ideas for
do can we can come up with ideas for designing programs we can make those
designing programs we can make those
designing programs we can make those programs we can test them in the field
programs we can test them in the field
programs we can test them in the field like yeah so so I can actually replace
like yeah so so I can actually replace
like yeah so so I can actually replace all my my grad students with you know AI
all my my grad students with you know AI
all my my grad students with you know AI researcher 2.0 and at that point then we
researcher 2.0 and at that point then we
researcher 2.0 and at that point then we have a brilliant idea then we think okay
have a brilliant idea then we think okay
have a brilliant idea then we think okay we can use our now collective
we can use our now collective
we can use our now collective intelligence together to design even
intelligence together to design even
intelligence together to design even better AI researchers AI researchers 3.0
better AI researchers AI researchers 3.0
better AI researchers AI researchers 3.0 now at that point it’s a little hard for
now at that point it’s a little hard for
now at that point it’s a little hard for me to keep up with these these AI
me to keep up with these these AI
me to keep up with these these AI researchers that I bought from the store
researchers that I bought from the store
researchers that I bought from the store and they have improved themselves one
and they have improved themselves one
and they have improved themselves one knotch and they begin to improve
knotch and they begin to improve
knotch and they begin to improve themselves at a very rapid pace
themselves at a very rapid pace
themselves at a very rapid pace potentially over the course of a weekend
potentially over the course of a weekend
potentially over the course of a weekend the theory goes and we experience
the theory goes and we experience
the theory goes and we experience something that sometimes referred to as
something that sometimes referred to as
something that sometimes referred to as an intelligence explosion so this
an intelligence explosion so this
an intelligence explosion so this intelligence turned back upon itself is
intelligence turned back upon itself is
intelligence turned back upon itself is and more intelligence which can generate
and more intelligence which can generate
and more intelligence which can generate even more intelligence we can ultimately
even more intelligence we can ultimately
even more intelligence we can ultimately absorb all kinds of roles of people in
absorb all kinds of roles of people in
absorb all kinds of roles of people in fact maybe all possible roles of people
you know including people who come to
you know including people who come to TEDx talks you could imagine anything so
TEDx talks you could imagine anything so
TEDx talks you could imagine anything so terrible at that point we would have
terrible at that point we would have
terrible at that point we would have achieved what you can refer to as
achieved what you can refer to as
achieved what you can refer to as general super intelligence so an
general super intelligence so an
general super intelligence so an artificial intelligence system that is
artificial intelligence system that is
artificial intelligence system that is smart not only is any individual people
smart not only is any individual people
smart not only is any individual people but like anything that a person can do
but like anything that a person can do
but like anything that a person can do this system can now do better than us
this system can now do better than us
this system can now do better than us now this isn’t a threat in and of itself
now this isn’t a threat in and of itself
now this isn’t a threat in and of itself but it does leave us humanity in a very
but it does leave us humanity in a very
but it does leave us humanity in a very awkward position because we no longer
awkward position because we no longer
awkward position because we no longer have control of our own destiny right
have control of our own destiny right
have control of our own destiny right it’s now the machine that or the group
it’s now the machine that or the group
it’s now the machine that or the group of machines that can do anything that we
of machines that can do anything that we
of machines that can do anything that we can do better than we can do it and if
can do better than we can do it and if
can do better than we can do it and if they decide that you know we need help
they decide that you know we need help
they decide that you know we need help then maybe they’ll help us and that
then maybe they’ll help us and that
then maybe they’ll help us and that would be awesome or if they could decide
would be awesome or if they could decide
would be awesome or if they could decide that we’re in the way then they can get
that we’re in the way then they can get
that we’re in the way then they can get rid of us and there’s really not much
rid of us and there’s really not much
rid of us and there’s really not much we’d be able to do in response because
we’d be able to do in response because
we’d be able to do in response because that’s how powerful they are in this
that’s how powerful they are in this
that’s how powerful they are in this story so this is this is kind of the the
story so this is this is kind of the the
story so this is this is kind of the the crux of the problem this is the big
crux of the problem this is the big
crux of the problem this is the big concern is so just to put a fine point
concern is so just to put a fine point
concern is so just to put a fine point on it
on it
on it the idea is that we get computers up to
the idea is that we get computers up to
the idea is that we get computers up to a certain point where they can exhibit
a certain point where they can exhibit
a certain point where they can exhibit recursive self-improvement they can make
recursive self-improvement they can make
recursive self-improvement they can make themselves better at which point they
themselves better at which point they
themselves better at which point they can create entities of individual
can create entities of individual
can create entities of individual brilliance the likes of which we’ve
brilliance the likes of which we’ve
brilliance the likes of which we’ve never seen at that point the the fear is
never seen at that point the the fear is
never seen at that point the the fear is that the things that make us special and
that the things that make us special and
that the things that make us special and powerful the things that that humans can
powerful the things that that humans can
powerful the things that that humans can do are now being taken over so humans
do are now being taken over so humans
do are now being taken over so humans become obsolete and then finally as a
become obsolete and then finally as a
become obsolete and then finally as a result we’re no longer the dominant
result we’re no longer the dominant
result we’re no longer the dominant species on the planet we’re at the whim
species on the planet we’re at the whim
species on the planet we’re at the whim of of these machines so that’s that’s
of of these machines so that’s that’s
of of these machines so that’s that’s the story that that Elon Musk and others
the story that that Elon Musk and others
the story that that Elon Musk and others would like you to be afraid of and it is
would like you to be afraid of and it is
would like you to be afraid of and it is kind of a scary story right it’s kind of
kind of a scary story right it’s kind of
kind of a scary story right it’s kind of straight out of Hollywood
straight out of Hollywood
straight out of Hollywood because it’s kind of straight out of
because it’s kind of straight out of
because it’s kind of straight out of Hollywood this is not coming out of the
Hollywood this is not coming out of the
Hollywood this is not coming out of the science of it but it’s coming out of
science of it but it’s coming out of
science of it but it’s coming out of speculative thinking about the
speculative thinking about the
speculative thinking about the directions that these things can go and
directions that these things can go and
directions that these things can go and I want to say a few words about why I
I want to say a few words about why I
I want to say a few words about why I don’t think this is this is you know
don’t think this is this is you know
don’t think this is this is you know it’s a great story but it’s not it’s not
it’s a great story but it’s not it’s not
it’s a great story but it’s not it’s not a path that we’re about to follow
a path that we’re about to follow
a path that we’re about to follow so the first thing I want to point out
so the first thing I want to point out
so the first thing I want to point out is that if you ask a biologist about
is that if you ask a biologist about
is that if you ask a biologist about who’s the dominant species on the planet
who’s the dominant species on the planet
who’s the dominant species on the planet they don’t instantly say well it’s a
they don’t instantly say well it’s a
they don’t instantly say well it’s a sitz people people are awesome I mean I
sitz people people are awesome I mean I
sitz people people are awesome I mean I like people right some of my best
like people right some of my best
like people right some of my best friends are people so it’s not it’s not
friends are people so it’s not it’s not
friends are people so it’s not it’s not like I I think that people are doing a
like I I think that people are doing a
like I I think that people are doing a terrible job at everything but it is
terrible job at everything but it is
terrible job at everything but it is also the case that if you have if you’re
also the case that if you have if you’re
also the case that if you have if you’re gonna say we’re the dominant species you
gonna say we’re the dominant species you
gonna say we’re the dominant species you need to be careful about your
need to be careful about your
need to be careful about your definitions and it’s the case that for
definitions and it’s the case that for
definitions and it’s the case that for example in terms of which species have
example in terms of which species have
example in terms of which species have lasted the longest well horseshoe crabs
lasted the longest well horseshoe crabs
lasted the longest well horseshoe crabs have done a lot better job than us at
have done a lot better job than us at
have done a lot better job than us at that maybe that’s not fair right they
that maybe that’s not fair right they
that maybe that’s not fair right they had a head start
had a head start
had a head start we’ve been maybe doing well since we’ve
we’ve been maybe doing well since we’ve
we’ve been maybe doing well since we’ve gotten here but bite me again measured
gotten here but bite me again measured
gotten here but bite me again measured by what measured by the individual
by what measured by the individual
by what measured by the individual lifetimes well you know people live a
lifetimes well you know people live a
lifetimes well you know people live a good long time but the the ocean Quahog
good long time but the the ocean Quahog
good long time but the the ocean Quahog lives like four times longer than us so
lives like four times longer than us so
lives like four times longer than us so yeah we’re good but there’s better but
yeah we’re good but there’s better but
yeah we’re good but there’s better but there’s a lot of us but not nearly as
there’s a lot of us but not nearly as
there’s a lot of us but not nearly as much as there are of Antarctic krill
much as there are of Antarctic krill
much as there are of Antarctic krill they’re way ahead of us it’s like oh
they’re way ahead of us it’s like oh
they’re way ahead of us it’s like oh that’s not fair they’re they’re tiny
that’s not fair they’re they’re tiny
that’s not fair they’re they’re tiny right you know one of us is like I don’t
right you know one of us is like I don’t
right you know one of us is like I don’t know a billion of those or something but
know a billion of those or something but
know a billion of those or something but if you actually think if you factor
if you actually think if you factor
if you actually think if you factor weight into this story while cows
weight into this story while cows
weight into this story while cows actually beat us on that front there’s
actually beat us on that front there’s
actually beat us on that front there’s more cow mass on the planet than there
more cow mass on the planet than there
more cow mass on the planet than there is human mass of course that’s kind of
is human mass of course that’s kind of
is human mass of course that’s kind of our fault right we actually gave cows
our fault right we actually gave cows
our fault right we actually gave cows that boost so you could say what about
that boost so you could say what about
that boost so you could say what about impact on the planet as a whole and we
impact on the planet as a whole and we
impact on the planet as a whole and we have had a tremendous impact on the
have had a tremendous impact on the
have had a tremendous impact on the planet but there’s other organisms that
planet but there’s other organisms that
planet but there’s other organisms that have had arguably more impact on the
have had arguably more impact on the
have had arguably more impact on the planet blue-green algae of all things
planet blue-green algae of all things
planet blue-green algae of all things produces 330 billion tons of oxygen each
produces 330 billion tons of oxygen each
produces 330 billion tons of oxygen each year a small fraction of which we
year a small fraction of which we
year a small fraction of which we managed to breathe they’re just lots of
managed to breathe they’re just lots of
managed to breathe they’re just lots of things out there that are having a lot
things out there that are having a lot
things out there that are having a lot more impact on the world than we are now
more impact on the world than we are now
more impact on the world than we are now again you know people are still very
again you know people are still very
again you know people are still very important and we have a very big role to
important and we have a very big role to
important and we have a very big role to play but but again you have to be
play but but again you have to be
play but but again you have to be careful about defining your terms now
careful about defining your terms now
careful about defining your terms now what about what about the impact of
what about what about the impact of
what about what about the impact of intelligence on our own destiny if you
intelligence on our own destiny if you
intelligence on our own destiny if you ask a historian
ask a historian
ask a historian they don’t necessarily say that it’s
they don’t necessarily say that it’s
they don’t necessarily say that it’s individual geniuses that have moved
individual geniuses that have moved
individual geniuses that have moved everything forward they’ll give the
everything forward they’ll give the
everything forward they’ll give the example of for example independent
example of for example independent
example of for example independent discovery the idea that some brilliant
discovery the idea that some brilliant
discovery the idea that some brilliant ideas actually are so important to
ideas actually are so important to
ideas actually are so important to society that they appear in multiple
society that they appear in multiple
society that they appear in multiple people’s heads that sometimes roughly
people’s heads that sometimes roughly
people’s heads that sometimes roughly the same time and so if you actually
the same time and so if you actually
the same time and so if you actually look at this
look at this
look at this and I’ve been collecting examples of
and I’ve been collecting examples of
and I’ve been collecting examples of these things because I think it’s really
these things because I think it’s really
these things because I think it’s really neat there’s quite a range of issues
neat there’s quite a range of issues
neat there’s quite a range of issues that actually come up the telephone very
that actually come up the telephone very
that actually come up the telephone very impactful in society the invention of
impactful in society the invention of
impactful in society the invention of calculus very impactful on society they
calculus very impactful on society they
calculus very impactful on society they were independently invented by multiple
were independently invented by multiple
were independently invented by multiple people really important things but also
people really important things but also
people really important things but also some kind of trivial things the the
some kind of trivial things the the
some kind of trivial things the the bacon martini was independently invented
bacon martini was independently invented
bacon martini was independently invented by multiple people a mathematical
by multiple people a mathematical
by multiple people a mathematical notation for specifying juggling
notation for specifying juggling
notation for specifying juggling patterns for different groups had the
patterns for different groups had the
patterns for different groups had the same idea at the same time for this and
same idea at the same time for this and
same idea at the same time for this and so that’s kind of big and little but all
so that’s kind of big and little but all
so that’s kind of big and little but all the way between two beer was
the way between two beer was
the way between two beer was independently invented in multiple times
independently invented in multiple times
independently invented in multiple times in history and the neural network
in history and the neural network
in history and the neural network structures that are actually driving a
structures that are actually driving a
structures that are actually driving a lot of the progress in AI have been
lot of the progress in AI have been
lot of the progress in AI have been invented by multiple people over the
invented by multiple people over the
invented by multiple people over the over the decades so it’s worth pointing
over the decades so it’s worth pointing
over the decades so it’s worth pointing out that none of these things happen in
out that none of these things happen in
out that none of these things happen in a vacuum even even vacuums didn’t happen
a vacuum even even vacuums didn’t happen
a vacuum even even vacuums didn’t happen in a vacuum they were independently
in a vacuum they were independently
in a vacuum they were independently invented by multiple people at around
invented by multiple people at around
invented by multiple people at around the same time so these these are kind of
the same time so these these are kind of
the same time so these these are kind of more general forces in society and not
more general forces in society and not
more general forces in society and not just not just the the brainchild of
just not just the the brainchild of
just not just the the brainchild of individual people this notion of
individual people this notion of
individual people this notion of recursive self-improvement though is
recursive self-improvement though is
recursive self-improvement though is where people say well this is where it’s
where people say well this is where it’s
where people say well this is where it’s really different from anything else
really different from anything else
really different from anything else that’s come before but in fact we try to
that’s come before but in fact we try to
that’s come before but in fact we try to do recursive self-improvement all the
do recursive self-improvement all the
do recursive self-improvement all the time and it helps but it’s not a game
time and it helps but it’s not a game
time and it helps but it’s not a game changer so an example is we we know
changer so an example is we we know
changer so an example is we we know teaching is really important this is how
teaching is really important this is how
teaching is really important this is how we convey knowledge to people and you
we convey knowledge to people and you
we convey knowledge to people and you can actually try to teach teachers to be
can actually try to teach teachers to be
can actually try to teach teachers to be better teachers
better teachers
better teachers there’s teaching schools that teach
there’s teaching schools that teach
there’s teaching schools that teach teachers and that results in better
teachers and that results in better
teachers and that results in better teachers but again not completely
teachers but again not completely
teachers but again not completely different kinds of teachers than we have
different kinds of teachers than we have
different kinds of teachers than we have now they’re just better you have ways of
now they’re just better you have ways of
now they’re just better you have ways of coaching coaches to be better coaches
coaching coaches to be better coaches
coaching coaches to be better coaches and you have of course ways of parenting
and you have of course ways of parenting
and you have of course ways of parenting parents to be better parents the most
parents to be better parents the most
parents to be better parents the most silly one that I’ve seen is you have
silly one that I’ve seen is you have
silly one that I’ve seen is you have crowdfunding startups whose job is to
crowdfunding startups whose job is to
crowdfunding startups whose job is to better fund crowdfunding startup so they
better fund crowdfunding startup so they
better fund crowdfunding startup so they can found crowdfunding startups and
can found crowdfunding startups and
can found crowdfunding startups and again this is it makes for progress it
again this is it makes for progress it
again this is it makes for progress it just doesn’t make game-changing progress
just doesn’t make game-changing progress
just doesn’t make game-changing progress and finally I want to address the
and finally I want to address the
and finally I want to address the question of human obsolescence so as
question of human obsolescence so as
question of human obsolescence so as machines get better at us at the things
machines get better at us at the things
machines get better at us at the things that we care about does that make it so
that we care about does that make it so
that we care about does that make it so that we don’t have a role to play
that we don’t have a role to play
that we don’t have a role to play anymore and I can think of lots of
anymore and I can think of lots of
anymore and I can think of lots of examples in technology from recent years
examples in technology from recent years
examples in technology from recent years and an AI in particular but one example
and an AI in particular but one example
and an AI in particular but one example that came up that I thought was
that came up that I thought was
that came up that I thought was really telling is is the following thing
really telling is is the following thing
really telling is is the following thing so once upon a time people decided it
so once upon a time people decided it
so once upon a time people decided it was really important to draw sunflowers
was really important to draw sunflowers
was really important to draw sunflowers and so on the caves that they were
and so on the caves that they were
and so on the caves that they were living in at the time they came up with
living in at the time they came up with
living in at the time they came up with techniques for drawing sunflowers and
techniques for drawing sunflowers and
techniques for drawing sunflowers and they were they were very lovely
they were they were very lovely
they were they were very lovely sunflowers very meaningful to people and
sunflowers very meaningful to people and
sunflowers very meaningful to people and over the the the intervening centuries
over the the the intervening centuries
over the the the intervening centuries people got better and better at drawing
people got better and better at drawing
people got better and better at drawing sunflowers and by the 1800s individual
sunflowers and by the 1800s individual
sunflowers and by the 1800s individual people could draw experts could draw
people could draw experts could draw
people could draw experts could draw sunflowers in a way that was almost
sunflowers in a way that was almost
sunflowers in a way that was almost indistinguishable from real life really
indistinguishable from real life really
indistinguishable from real life really amazing artistry unfortunately around
amazing artistry unfortunately around
amazing artistry unfortunately around the same time photography was invented
the same time photography was invented
the same time photography was invented now now machines could make sunflowers
now now machines could make sunflowers
now now machines could make sunflowers that were exactly as detailed as reality
that were exactly as detailed as reality
that were exactly as detailed as reality they were capturing reality in
they were capturing reality in
they were capturing reality in indirectly and people’s reaction at that
indirectly and people’s reaction at that
indirectly and people’s reaction at that time some people said okay well folk art
time some people said okay well folk art
time some people said okay well folk art is dead but other people said they don’t
is dead but other people said they don’t
is dead but other people said they don’t know this is okay this is we just kind
know this is okay this is we just kind
know this is okay this is we just kind of changed the way we were thinking
of changed the way we were thinking
of changed the way we were thinking about what art is and so they came up
about what art is and so they came up
about what art is and so they came up with Impressionism they came up with
with Impressionism they came up with
with Impressionism they came up with with ways of incorporating photography
with ways of incorporating photography
with ways of incorporating photography into their art they came up with ways of
into their art they came up with ways of
into their art they came up with ways of using computers to draw sunflowers and
using computers to draw sunflowers and
using computers to draw sunflowers and over time a thousand flowers would bloom
over time a thousand flowers would bloom
over time a thousand flowers would bloom and as a result it didn’t really end the
and as a result it didn’t really end the
and as a result it didn’t really end the pursuit of sunflowers what it really did
pursuit of sunflowers what it really did
pursuit of sunflowers what it really did was it gave us new ways of creating we
was it gave us new ways of creating we
was it gave us new ways of creating we got to change the rules we got to change
got to change the rules we got to change
got to change the rules we got to change the goals and as a result we became
the goals and as a result we became
the goals and as a result we became richer for it
richer for it
richer for it so I want to mention one last little
so I want to mention one last little
so I want to mention one last little example of of the impact of a eye on
example of of the impact of a eye on
example of of the impact of a eye on society the real AI not this sort of
society the real AI not this sort of
society the real AI not this sort of weird futures sci-fi AI but real AI has
weird futures sci-fi AI but real AI has
weird futures sci-fi AI but real AI has the property that it really does impact
the property that it really does impact
the property that it really does impact people’s lives so since the the early
people’s lives so since the the early
people’s lives so since the the early days when researchers were just trying
days when researchers were just trying
days when researchers were just trying to figure out what AI is it’s now
to figure out what AI is it’s now
to figure out what AI is it’s now something that’s impacting millions of
something that’s impacting millions of
something that’s impacting millions of lives and so one of the ways this has
lives and so one of the ways this has
lives and so one of the ways this has happened is again if you take your your
happened is again if you take your your
happened is again if you take your your direction giving software out in the
direction giving software out in the
direction giving software out in the early days it had weird glitches in it
early days it had weird glitches in it
early days it had weird glitches in it and you could ask the system you know
and you could ask the system you know
and you could ask the system you know take me to an abortion clinic and have
take me to an abortion clinic and have
take me to an abortion clinic and have it come back and say there are no
it come back and say there are no
it come back and say there are no abortion clinics or there the only thing
abortion clinics or there the only thing
abortion clinics or there the only thing I’d like to take you to is a crisis
I’d like to take you to is a crisis
I’d like to take you to is a crisis pregnancy center where it which staffed
pregnancy center where it which staffed
pregnancy center where it which staffed by anti-abortion people these systems
by anti-abortion people these systems
by anti-abortion people these systems are actually changing the opportunities
are actually changing the opportunities
are actually changing the opportunities and the affordances that people have as
and the affordances that people have as
and the affordances that people have as they’re getting around in the world
they’re getting around in the world
they’re getting around in the world and from that perspective it’s very
and from that perspective it’s very
and from that perspective it’s very important that we take AI as it really
important that we take AI as it really
important that we take AI as it really exists extremely seriously it’s up to
exists extremely seriously it’s up to
exists extremely seriously it’s up to all of you to put pressure on on us the
all of you to put pressure on on us the
all of you to put pressure on on us the technology creators to make sure that
technology creators to make sure that
technology creators to make sure that the systems we build reflect our shared
the systems we build reflect our shared
the systems we build reflect our shared values and this is a responsibility that
values and this is a responsibility that
values and this is a responsibility that that we as technologists need to take
that we as technologists need to take
that we as technologists need to take extremely seriously thanks a lot for
extremely seriously thanks a lot for
extremely seriously thanks a lot for your attention
your attention
your attention [Applause]
”
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