Why we disagree about facts? | Sander van der Linden | TEDxOxbridge

why we disagree about facts so I’ve had

why we disagree about facts so I’ve had a lifelong interest in trying to

a lifelong interest in trying to

a lifelong interest in trying to understand how humans perceive the world

understand how humans perceive the world

understand how humans perceive the world and each other and we tend to think of

and each other and we tend to think of

and each other and we tend to think of perception as visual perception so light

perception as visual perception so light

perception as visual perception so light bounces off of an object reflects back

bounces off of an object reflects back

bounces off of an object reflects back onto our retinas which transports the

onto our retinas which transports the

onto our retinas which transports the signal along the optic nerve to the

signal along the optic nerve to the

signal along the optic nerve to the visual cortex where some complex

visual cortex where some complex

visual cortex where some complex information processing occurs and that’s

information processing occurs and that’s

information processing occurs and that’s how we view objects but if that were the

how we view objects but if that were the

how we view objects but if that were the whole story then how is it possible that

whole story then how is it possible that

whole story then how is it possible that we can all look at the same facts the

we can all look at the same facts the

we can all look at the same facts the same evidence the same risks and arrive

same evidence the same risks and arrive

same evidence the same risks and arrive at radically different conclusions about

at radically different conclusions about

at radically different conclusions about what they mean and that is because our

what they mean and that is because our

what they mean and that is because our perceptions are inherently social and

perceptions are inherently social and

perceptions are inherently social and the first time that I realized how

the first time that I realized how

the first time that I realized how social the nature of our perception is

social the nature of our perception is

social the nature of our perception is was during my undergraduate degree where

was during my undergraduate degree where

was during my undergraduate degree where I came across this classic social

I came across this classic social

I came across this classic social psychology experiment where Solomon Asch

psychology experiment where Solomon Asch

psychology experiment where Solomon Asch asked participants to match the line you

asked participants to match the line you

asked participants to match the line you see on the left to one of the three

see on the left to one of the three

see on the left to one of the three other lines on the right now I know what

other lines on the right now I know what

other lines on the right now I know what you’re thinking clearly the answer is C

you’re thinking clearly the answer is C

you’re thinking clearly the answer is C and that’s right we all have a

and that’s right we all have a

and that’s right we all have a motivation to perceive the world as it

motivation to perceive the world as it

motivation to perceive the world as it is but we also have competing

is but we also have competing

is but we also have competing motivations more social motivations and

motivations more social motivations and

motivations more social motivations and so the experimenter wanted to see what

so the experimenter wanted to see what

so the experimenter wanted to see what if all the other participants

if all the other participants

if all the other participants systematically gave the wrong answer

systematically gave the wrong answer

systematically gave the wrong answer with the real subject of the experiment

with the real subject of the experiment

with the real subject of the experiment then also conform to the norm of the

then also conform to the norm of the

then also conform to the norm of the group or what they still give the

group or what they still give the

group or what they still give the accurate answer and what they found was

accurate answer and what they found was

accurate answer and what they found was actually quite striking that although

actually quite striking that although

actually quite striking that although there was variation on a large number of

there was variation on a large number of

there was variation on a large number of trials seventy-five percent of

trials seventy-five percent of

trials seventy-five percent of individuals at least conformed once

individuals at least conformed once

individuals at least conformed once meaning that they willingly distorted

meaning that they willingly distorted

meaning that they willingly distorted their perceptions of reality to conform

their perceptions of reality to conform

their perceptions of reality to conform to the norm of the group and this is

to the norm of the group and this is

to the norm of the group and this is quite striking now you might think what

quite striking now you might think what

quite striking now you might think what is this experiment from the 1950s tell

is this experiment from the 1950s tell

is this experiment from the 1950s tell us about the situation that we currently

us about the situation that we currently

us about the situation that we currently find ourselves in and so let me tell you

find ourselves in and so let me tell you

find ourselves in and so let me tell you a slightly embarrassing story about

a slightly embarrassing story about

a slightly embarrassing story about myself my wife and I were the National

myself my wife and I were the National

myself my wife and I were the National Trust not too long ago beautiful place

Trust not too long ago beautiful place

Trust not too long ago beautiful place but we hadn’t had breakfast yet and so

but we hadn’t had breakfast yet and so

but we hadn’t had breakfast yet and so it went in to the restaurant and I saw

it went in to the restaurant and I saw

it went in to the restaurant and I saw the sign that said almond cake with

the sign that said almond cake with

the sign that said almond cake with strawberries I don’t know about you but

strawberries I don’t know about you but

strawberries I don’t know about you but I love almond cake and so I was excited

I love almond cake and so I was excited

I love almond cake and so I was excited about actually finding that

about actually finding that

about actually finding that and cake and so the only cake though

and cake and so the only cake though

and cake and so the only cake though they had fruit on it was a picture of

they had fruit on it was a picture of

they had fruit on it was a picture of this cake and I started thinking wow

this cake and I started thinking wow

this cake and I started thinking wow this looks more like a sponge cake it

this looks more like a sponge cake it

this looks more like a sponge cake it doesn’t really look like an almond cake

doesn’t really look like an almond cake

doesn’t really look like an almond cake and so I wondered where’s the almond

and so I wondered where’s the almond

and so I wondered where’s the almond cake so I started walking around a room

cake so I started walking around a room

cake so I started walking around a room I’m very serious about almond cake so I

I’m very serious about almond cake so I

I’m very serious about almond cake so I started walking around the room and it

started walking around the room and it

started walking around the room and it was it was very busy and there were no

was it was very busy and there were no

was it was very busy and there were no waiters and so the people were sort of

waiters and so the people were sort of

waiters and so the people were sort of looking at me in the queue like what is

looking at me in the queue like what is

looking at me in the queue like what is this guy doing and so I just wasn’t sure

this guy doing and so I just wasn’t sure

this guy doing and so I just wasn’t sure and I wanted I didn’t want to leave

and I wanted I didn’t want to leave

and I wanted I didn’t want to leave without the almond cake so I brought my

without the almond cake so I brought my

without the almond cake so I brought my wife in for a second opinion and the the

wife in for a second opinion and the the

wife in for a second opinion and the the funniest thing happened she pointed to

funniest thing happened she pointed to

funniest thing happened she pointed to an entirely different cake and that cake

an entirely different cake and that cake

an entirely different cake and that cake didn’t have any fruit on it and so I

didn’t have any fruit on it and so I

didn’t have any fruit on it and so I said well the science says almond cake

said well the science says almond cake

said well the science says almond cake with strawberries so how can it possibly

with strawberries so how can it possibly

with strawberries so how can it possibly be that that’s the almond cake and she

be that that’s the almond cake and she

be that that’s the almond cake and she said well you asked for my opinion I

said well you asked for my opinion I

said well you asked for my opinion I think that’s the almond cake because the

think that’s the almond cake because the

think that’s the almond cake because the cake that you’re looking at is clearly a

cake that you’re looking at is clearly a

cake that you’re looking at is clearly a sponge cake and so I happily distorted

sponge cake and so I happily distorted

sponge cake and so I happily distorted my perceptions of reality to conform to

my perceptions of reality to conform to

my perceptions of reality to conform to the opinion of someone whom I greatly

the opinion of someone whom I greatly

the opinion of someone whom I greatly trust and deeply value and I bought the

trust and deeply value and I bought the

trust and deeply value and I bought the I bought the other cake now when it took

I bought the other cake now when it took

I bought the other cake now when it took a bite I realized it was an almond cake

a bite I realized it was an almond cake

a bite I realized it was an almond cake in fact it was carrot cake and I really

in fact it was carrot cake and I really

in fact it was carrot cake and I really disliked carrot cake but the moral of

disliked carrot cake but the moral of

disliked carrot cake but the moral of the story is that we were both wrong in

the story is that we were both wrong in

the story is that we were both wrong in fact a delicious almond cake wasn’t

fact a delicious almond cake wasn’t

fact a delicious almond cake wasn’t actually their dad forgetting they

actually their dad forgetting they

actually their dad forgetting they simply had forgotten to remove the sign

simply had forgotten to remove the sign

simply had forgotten to remove the sign and so it was fake news and I used that

and so it was fake news and I used that

and so it was fake news and I used that term lightly here to denote and question

term lightly here to denote and question

term lightly here to denote and question what we actually mean when we say fake

what we actually mean when we say fake

what we actually mean when we say fake news right everyone’s using the term

news right everyone’s using the term

news right everyone’s using the term fake news now and I think we’re not so

fake news now and I think we’re not so

fake news now and I think we’re not so concerned about innocent scenarios like

concerned about innocent scenarios like

concerned about innocent scenarios like that about jokes entertainment possibly

that about jokes entertainment possibly

that about jokes entertainment possibly just simple human error that’s not what

just simple human error that’s not what

just simple human error that’s not what concerns us right what’s troubling is

concerns us right what’s troubling is

concerns us right what’s troubling is the spread of misinformation and not

the spread of misinformation and not

the spread of misinformation and not just that because misinformation is

just that because misinformation is

just that because misinformation is information that simply false

information that simply false

information that simply false incorrect could be due to a simple

incorrect could be due to a simple

incorrect could be due to a simple mistake I think what we’re worried about

mistake I think what we’re worried about

mistake I think what we’re worried about is the coupling of misinformation with

is the coupling of misinformation with

is the coupling of misinformation with the explicit and deliberate intent to

the explicit and deliberate intent to

the explicit and deliberate intent to mislead and confuse people to cause harm

mislead and confuse people to cause harm

mislead and confuse people to cause harm to others and to harm our ability to

to others and to harm our ability to

to others and to harm our ability to form evidence-based judgments about

form evidence-based judgments about

form evidence-based judgments about important societal issues and in order

important societal issues and in order

important societal issues and in order to understand the social consequences of

to understand the social consequences of

to understand the social consequences of fake news I think it’s important to take

fake news I think it’s important to take

fake news I think it’s important to take a step

a step

a step back and sort of examined the way in

back and sort of examined the way in

back and sort of examined the way in which humans process information now you

which humans process information now you

which humans process information now you might have heard things like

might have heard things like

might have heard things like confirmation bias the fact that we no

confirmation bias the fact that we no

confirmation bias the fact that we no longer pay attention to science

longer pay attention to science

longer pay attention to science everyone’s just following their own

everyone’s just following their own

everyone’s just following their own opinions now I think that that’s bad

opinions now I think that that’s bad

opinions now I think that that’s bad psychology in some sense we can think of

psychology in some sense we can think of

psychology in some sense we can think of this as a spectrum and so on one end of

this as a spectrum and so on one end of

this as a spectrum and so on one end of the spectrum we have something called

the spectrum we have something called

the spectrum we have something called selective attention meaning it’s an on

selective attention meaning it’s an on

selective attention meaning it’s an on and off switch and we selectively attend

and off switch and we selectively attend

and off switch and we selectively attend to the things that we find important and

to the things that we find important and

to the things that we find important and we disregard things that are irrelevant

we disregard things that are irrelevant

we disregard things that are irrelevant to us and that’s completely natural we

to us and that’s completely natural we

to us and that’s completely natural we need to have a filtering mechanism to

need to have a filtering mechanism to

need to have a filtering mechanism to try to understand the world

try to understand the world

try to understand the world confirmation bias though is the tendency

confirmation bias though is the tendency

confirmation bias though is the tendency to process information more fluently

to process information more fluently

to process information more fluently when we agree with it

when we agree with it

when we agree with it when it agrees with our pre-existing

when it agrees with our pre-existing

when it agrees with our pre-existing worldviews and beliefs and stuff that

worldviews and beliefs and stuff that

worldviews and beliefs and stuff that doesn’t agree with us is more difficult

doesn’t agree with us is more difficult

doesn’t agree with us is more difficult to process so we have a bias towards

to process so we have a bias towards

to process so we have a bias towards confirming those type of facts that we

confirming those type of facts that we

confirming those type of facts that we already agree with and that’s

already agree with and that’s

already agree with and that’s confirmation bias that works some of the

confirmation bias that works some of the

confirmation bias that works some of the time a lot of times it can be more

time a lot of times it can be more

time a lot of times it can be more complicated what’s really troubling

complicated what’s really troubling

complicated what’s really troubling though is this notion of motivated

though is this notion of motivated

though is this notion of motivated reasoning so motivated reasoning is just

reasoning so motivated reasoning is just

reasoning so motivated reasoning is just not only selectively tending to evidence

not only selectively tending to evidence

not only selectively tending to evidence confirming those facts that fit with

confirming those facts that fit with

confirming those facts that fit with your prior worldview but also to have a

your prior worldview but also to have a

your prior worldview but also to have a deep motivation to then actually reject

deep motivation to then actually reject

deep motivation to then actually reject any evidence to the contrary to actually

any evidence to the contrary to actually

any evidence to the contrary to actually distort our perceptions of the facts

distort our perceptions of the facts

distort our perceptions of the facts because they don’t fit with what we

because they don’t fit with what we

because they don’t fit with what we believe and what fake news does and the

believe and what fake news does and the

believe and what fake news does and the spread of misinformation is it heightens

spread of misinformation is it heightens

spread of misinformation is it heightens these processes and it pushes us towards

these processes and it pushes us towards

these processes and it pushes us towards more extreme ends of the spectrum social

more extreme ends of the spectrum social

more extreme ends of the spectrum social media websites selectively target us

media websites selectively target us

media websites selectively target us based on our clique behavior a prior

based on our clique behavior a prior

based on our clique behavior a prior clique behavior right we tend to click

clique behavior right we tend to click

clique behavior right we tend to click on things that we like that we agree

on things that we like that we agree

on things that we like that we agree with that feed into an algorithm and

with that feed into an algorithm and

with that feed into an algorithm and then it feeds us back similar

then it feeds us back similar

then it feeds us back similar information and so this process of

information and so this process of

information and so this process of feeding us opinions that we already like

feeding us opinions that we already like

feeding us opinions that we already like and agree with heightens and amplifies

and agree with heightens and amplifies

and agree with heightens and amplifies opportunities for selective attention

opportunities for selective attention

opportunities for selective attention confirmation bias and motivated

confirmation bias and motivated

confirmation bias and motivated reasoning and it decreases the valley of

reasoning and it decreases the valley of

reasoning and it decreases the valley of open-mindedness I’m sure you’ve all

open-mindedness I’m sure you’ve all

open-mindedness I’m sure you’ve all heard of the term echo chamber where you

heard of the term echo chamber where you

heard of the term echo chamber where you can think of it as an actual chamber

can think of it as an actual chamber

can think of it as an actual chamber sticking your head in a chamber and

sticking your head in a chamber and

sticking your head in a chamber and everyone’s just validating everything

everyone’s just validating everything

everyone’s just validating everything you are saying right your

you are saying right your

you are saying right your pinions are awesome I totally agree with

pinions are awesome I totally agree with

pinions are awesome I totally agree with you I couldn’t agree with you more and

you I couldn’t agree with you more and

you I couldn’t agree with you more and who doesn’t love their opinions being

who doesn’t love their opinions being

who doesn’t love their opinions being validated I love it when people agree

validated I love it when people agree

validated I love it when people agree with me in fact there’s neurological

with me in fact there’s neurological

with me in fact there’s neurological evidence that shows that when people

evidence that shows that when people

evidence that shows that when people learn that others agree with them reward

learn that others agree with them reward

learn that others agree with them reward pathways are activated in the brain and

pathways are activated in the brain and

pathways are activated in the brain and so this is not an inherently bad thing

so this is not an inherently bad thing

so this is not an inherently bad thing but when it’s amplified and so selective

but when it’s amplified and so selective

but when it’s amplified and so selective it becomes increasingly difficult to see

it becomes increasingly difficult to see

it becomes increasingly difficult to see what’s going on at the other side to try

what’s going on at the other side to try

what’s going on at the other side to try to understand the other argument at the

to understand the other argument at the

to understand the other argument at the other end of the spectrum it polarizes

other end of the spectrum it polarizes

other end of the spectrum it polarizes people and it creates conflict and I

people and it creates conflict and I

people and it creates conflict and I think that is the real issue there’s

think that is the real issue there’s

think that is the real issue there’s another great psychology experiment I

another great psychology experiment I

another great psychology experiment I won’t bore you with too many just one

won’t bore you with too many just one

won’t bore you with too many just one more it’s called the minimal group

more it’s called the minimal group

more it’s called the minimal group paradigm so if I divide half of this

paradigm so if I divide half of this

paradigm so if I divide half of this room in two and I give one group a

room in two and I give one group a

room in two and I give one group a yellow t-shirt and the other group a red

yellow t-shirt and the other group a red

yellow t-shirt and the other group a red t-shirt I am assuming that you’re

t-shirt I am assuming that you’re

t-shirt I am assuming that you’re guessing what’s about to happen those

guessing what’s about to happen those

guessing what’s about to happen those with the yellow t-shirts will start

with the yellow t-shirts will start

with the yellow t-shirts will start affiliating with each other they start

affiliating with each other they start

affiliating with each other they start liking each other and they start forming

liking each other and they start forming

liking each other and they start forming subtle prejudices about those but the

subtle prejudices about those but the

subtle prejudices about those but the red t-shirts subtle stereotypes and

red t-shirts subtle stereotypes and

red t-shirts subtle stereotypes and rumors will quickly dissolve and will

rumors will quickly dissolve and will

rumors will quickly dissolve and will start disliking those with the red

start disliking those with the red

start disliking those with the red t-shirts and that artificial nature of

t-shirts and that artificial nature of

t-shirts and that artificial nature of creating group distinctions is very

creating group distinctions is very

creating group distinctions is very sensitive and it’s very quick and so

sensitive and it’s very quick and so

sensitive and it’s very quick and so when we think about major social

when we think about major social

when we think about major social political events like brexit it becomes

political events like brexit it becomes

political events like brexit it becomes easy for people to affiliate with the

easy for people to affiliate with the

easy for people to affiliate with the in-group versus the out-group if you

in-group versus the out-group if you

in-group versus the out-group if you voted to remain you’re in if you voted

voted to remain you’re in if you voted

voted to remain you’re in if you voted to leave you’re out and we start forming

to leave you’re out and we start forming

to leave you’re out and we start forming negative views about one another and

negative views about one another and

negative views about one another and again this creates conflict and tension

again this creates conflict and tension

again this creates conflict and tension so what can we do about this is there

so what can we do about this is there

so what can we do about this is there any way to communicate evidence that

any way to communicate evidence that

any way to communicate evidence that doesn’t polarize people further is there

doesn’t polarize people further is there

doesn’t polarize people further is there any way to bring people closer together

any way to bring people closer together

any way to bring people closer together on the science and on issues of mutual

on the science and on issues of mutual

on the science and on issues of mutual interest

interest

interest there’s many important issues

there’s many important issues

there’s many important issues immigration Public Health Human Rights

immigration Public Health Human Rights

immigration Public Health Human Rights inequality there’s many of them but

inequality there’s many of them but

inequality there’s many of them but there’s one issue in particular that I’m

there’s one issue in particular that I’m

there’s one issue in particular that I’m really worried about and that is global

really worried about and that is global

really worried about and that is global climate change in the future of our

climate change in the future of our

climate change in the future of our planet now I wanted to tell you a little

planet now I wanted to tell you a little

planet now I wanted to tell you a little about some research we did to try to

about some research we did to try to

about some research we did to try to create resistance to the spread of

create resistance to the spread of

create resistance to the spread of misinformation and to try to protect

misinformation and to try to protect

misinformation and to try to protect public attitudes

public attitudes

public attitudes from the distortion effects and

from the distortion effects and

from the distortion effects and disinformation now the media called this

disinformation now the media called this

disinformation now the media called this a vaccine against fake news one clever

a vaccine against fake news one clever

a vaccine against fake news one clever journalist called me and I said hey is

journalist called me and I said hey is

journalist called me and I said hey is this fake news I said no and I believe

this fake news I said no and I believe

this fake news I said no and I believe that that’s the correct answer too and

that that’s the correct answer too and

that that’s the correct answer too and so global climate change but I’ve

so global climate change but I’ve

so global climate change but I’ve studied the psychology of climate change

studied the psychology of climate change

studied the psychology of climate change for many years and I know how difficult

for many years and I know how difficult

for many years and I know how difficult is it is to accept a fact that implies

is it is to accept a fact that implies

is it is to accept a fact that implies that we’re all part of the cause right

that we’re all part of the cause right

that we’re all part of the cause right psychologically that’s not very

psychologically that’s not very

psychologically that’s not very comfortable and so we’ve been looking

comfortable and so we’ve been looking

comfortable and so we’ve been looking for a different type of fact what if we

for a different type of fact what if we

for a different type of fact what if we communicate a fact to people that’s not

communicate a fact to people that’s not

communicate a fact to people that’s not so threatening to our beliefs that

so threatening to our beliefs that

so threatening to our beliefs that doesn’t polarize people further before I

doesn’t polarize people further before I

doesn’t polarize people further before I go into that I wanted to do a quick quiz

go into that I wanted to do a quick quiz

go into that I wanted to do a quick quiz if I’d asked you what percentage of

if I’d asked you what percentage of

if I’d asked you what percentage of climate scientists have concluded that

climate scientists have concluded that

climate scientists have concluded that human caused global warming is happening

human caused global warming is happening

human caused global warming is happening how many would you say how many would

how many would you say how many would

how many would you say how many would vote for less than 50% let’s do a show

vote for less than 50% let’s do a show

vote for less than 50% let’s do a show of hands there’s a few how about 50 to

of hands there’s a few how about 50 to

of hands there’s a few how about 50 to 80% the majority of you think that

80% the majority of you think that

80% the majority of you think that there’s decent agreement right between

there’s decent agreement right between

there’s decent agreement right between 50 and 80% how about more than 90%

50 and 80% how about more than 90%

50 and 80% how about more than 90% there’s a good show of hands there too

there’s a good show of hands there too

there’s a good show of hands there too and in fact the actual answer is 97% and

and in fact the actual answer is 97% and

and in fact the actual answer is 97% and that’s probably an under estimation of

that’s probably an under estimation of

that’s probably an under estimation of how many climate scientists agree it’s

how many climate scientists agree it’s

how many climate scientists agree it’s so overwhelming that it’s actually 97%

so overwhelming that it’s actually 97%

so overwhelming that it’s actually 97% of climate scientist and there’s

of climate scientist and there’s

of climate scientist and there’s something really intriguing about the

something really intriguing about the

something really intriguing about the psychology of consensus because this

psychology of consensus because this

psychology of consensus because this describes the amount of agreement within

describes the amount of agreement within

describes the amount of agreement within a group of people and so it is

a group of people and so it is

a group of people and so it is inherently a social fact it tells us how

inherently a social fact it tells us how

inherently a social fact it tells us how many people agree on something and

many people agree on something and

many people agree on something and another interesting feature about this

another interesting feature about this

another interesting feature about this idea of consensus is that highlighting

idea of consensus is that highlighting

idea of consensus is that highlighting consensus can reduced misperceived

consensus can reduced misperceived

consensus can reduced misperceived conflict so imagine you have groups that

conflict so imagine you have groups that

conflict so imagine you have groups that don’t agree with each other they’re very

don’t agree with each other they’re very

don’t agree with each other they’re very unlikely to take statements about

unlikely to take statements about

unlikely to take statements about evidence and facts from one another

evidence and facts from one another

evidence and facts from one another because they inherently distrust each

because they inherently distrust each

because they inherently distrust each other but what if there was a third

other but what if there was a third

other but what if there was a third group a neutral out group that

group a neutral out group that

group a neutral out group that majorities of both groups trusted and

majorities of both groups trusted and

majorities of both groups trusted and we’re willing to take cues from that

we’re willing to take cues from that

we’re willing to take cues from that group

group

group serve as a mediator to try to reduce

serve as a mediator to try to reduce

serve as a mediator to try to reduce conflict now you might think who still

conflict now you might think who still

conflict now you might think who still trust scientists in a post truth society

trust scientists in a post truth society

trust scientists in a post truth society in fact lots of polls showed that both

in fact lots of polls showed that both

in fact lots of polls showed that both in the United States and the United

in the United States and the United

in the United States and the United Kingdom and elsewhere trust in

Kingdom and elsewhere trust in

Kingdom and elsewhere trust in scientists is actually still very high

scientists is actually still very high

scientists is actually still very high and this is not confirmation bias now

and this is not confirmation bias now

and this is not confirmation bias now I quickly showed you the result there

I quickly showed you the result there

I quickly showed you the result there this was not to prime you with the

this was not to prime you with the

this was not to prime you with the answer in the experiment I asked people

answer in the experiment I asked people

answer in the experiment I asked people the exact same question so I asked

the exact same question so I asked

the exact same question so I asked participants we asked thousands of

participants we asked thousands of

participants we asked thousands of participants how many scientists do you

participants how many scientists do you

participants how many scientists do you think agree on the issue of global

think agree on the issue of global

think agree on the issue of global warming then we showed people various

warming then we showed people various

warming then we showed people various statements about facts and

statements about facts and

statements about facts and misinformation then we asked them a

misinformation then we asked them a

misinformation then we asked them a bunch of bogus questions about the new

bunch of bogus questions about the new

bunch of bogus questions about the new Star Wars movie of course they didn’t

Star Wars movie of course they didn’t

Star Wars movie of course they didn’t know they were the unwitting participant

know they were the unwitting participant

know they were the unwitting participant in a psychology experiment and then we

in a psychology experiment and then we

in a psychology experiment and then we asked the same question in the end and

asked the same question in the end and

asked the same question in the end and what we’re interested in is the shift in

what we’re interested in is the shift in

what we’re interested in is the shift in perceptions of the scientific norm now

perceptions of the scientific norm now

perceptions of the scientific norm now the reason why this is such an

the reason why this is such an

the reason why this is such an interesting example is because of the

interesting example is because of the

interesting example is because of the disinformation campaigns that have been

disinformation campaigns that have been

disinformation campaigns that have been present in the climate change debate for

present in the climate change debate for

present in the climate change debate for a very long time and so there have been

a very long time and so there have been

a very long time and so there have been concerted efforts to undermine public

concerted efforts to undermine public

concerted efforts to undermine public understanding of the science not so much

understanding of the science not so much

understanding of the science not so much to convince you of alternative facts but

to convince you of alternative facts but

to convince you of alternative facts but simply to manufacture doubt in the

simply to manufacture doubt in the

simply to manufacture doubt in the public consciousness about the state of

public consciousness about the state of

public consciousness about the state of scientific agreement and the same was

scientific agreement and the same was

scientific agreement and the same was true for smoking and lung cancer and so

true for smoking and lung cancer and so

true for smoking and lung cancer and so we wondered is there any lessons that we

we wondered is there any lessons that we

we wondered is there any lessons that we can learn from the history of how people

can learn from the history of how people

can learn from the history of how people have thought about climate change and

have thought about climate change and

have thought about climate change and the types of information that are

the types of information that are

the types of information that are available about climate change now I

available about climate change now I

available about climate change now I love being a scientist because in the

love being a scientist because in the

love being a scientist because in the lab we can control things and create

lab we can control things and create

lab we can control things and create idealized conditions that don’t exist in

idealized conditions that don’t exist in

idealized conditions that don’t exist in the real world and so we wanted what

the real world and so we wanted what

the real world and so we wanted what happened if we just showed people the

happened if we just showed people the

happened if we just showed people the fact no misinformation no fake news we

fact no misinformation no fake news we

fact no misinformation no fake news we just show people the facts so what do

just show people the facts so what do

just show people the facts so what do you think happened in that condition

you think happened in that condition

you think happened in that condition where it just showed people the facts

where it just showed people the facts

where it just showed people the facts people were willing to adjust their

people were willing to adjust their

people were willing to adjust their beliefs in the directions with the

beliefs in the directions with the

beliefs in the directions with the scientific norm right most people

scientific norm right most people

scientific norm right most people trended towards the right answer when

trended towards the right answer when

trended towards the right answer when there’s no distracting

there’s no distracting

there’s no distracting information another group of subjects we

information another group of subjects we

information another group of subjects we showed an entirely different statement

showed an entirely different statement

showed an entirely different statement we showed them this petition and this is

we showed them this petition and this is

we showed them this petition and this is a real petition this is a screenshot of

a real petition this is a screenshot of

a real petition this is a screenshot of the petition that 31,000 scientists have

the petition that 31,000 scientists have

the petition that 31,000 scientists have signed a petition saying that their

signed a petition saying that their

signed a petition saying that their global warming isn’t happening and that

global warming isn’t happening and that

global warming isn’t happening and that there’s disagreement about the issue now

there’s disagreement about the issue now

there’s disagreement about the issue now there’s been lots of fake news stories

there’s been lots of fake news stories

there’s been lots of fake news stories based on this petition for example a

based on this petition for example a

based on this petition for example a thousands of scientists have signed a

thousands of scientists have signed a

thousands of scientists have signed a petition claiming that climate change is

petition claiming that climate change is

petition claiming that climate change is a hoax and this went viral on social

a hoax and this went viral on social

a hoax and this went viral on social media in 2016 and so we thought what

media in 2016 and so we thought what

media in 2016 and so we thought what what happens when people exposed to this

what happens when people exposed to this

what happens when people exposed to this type of misinformation as you might

type of misinformation as you might

type of misinformation as you might expect what happens is that it has a

expect what happens is that it has a

expect what happens is that it has a very negative effect right it decreases

very negative effect right it decreases

very negative effect right it decreases our perception of the scientific norm

our perception of the scientific norm

our perception of the scientific norm but what if we now pair the two together

but what if we now pair the two together

but what if we now pair the two together and this sort of reflects the current

and this sort of reflects the current

and this sort of reflects the current media environment right where we’re

media environment right where we’re

media environment right where we’re bombarded with conflicting cues and we

bombarded with conflicting cues and we

bombarded with conflicting cues and we see two different messages and we don’t

see two different messages and we don’t

see two different messages and we don’t know what to believe and so what

know what to believe and so what

know what to believe and so what happened when we pair the two together

happened when we pair the two together

happened when we pair the two together is that the facts were completely

is that the facts were completely

is that the facts were completely neutralized by the presence of

neutralized by the presence of

neutralized by the presence of misinformation and this tells a story

misinformation and this tells a story

misinformation and this tells a story about the potency of misinformation in

about the potency of misinformation in

about the potency of misinformation in neutralizing the power of facts right

neutralizing the power of facts right

neutralizing the power of facts right you might wonder well if it’s so obvious

you might wonder well if it’s so obvious

you might wonder well if it’s so obvious that so many scientists agree on the

that so many scientists agree on the

that so many scientists agree on the issue why haven’t people caught on to

issue why haven’t people caught on to

issue why haven’t people caught on to this because the presence of fake news

this because the presence of fake news

this because the presence of fake news and misinformation cancels out the

and misinformation cancels out the

and misinformation cancels out the effect completely and so if this is the

effect completely and so if this is the

effect completely and so if this is the case which is rather shocking is there

case which is rather shocking is there

case which is rather shocking is there anything we can do to prevent this from

anything we can do to prevent this from

anything we can do to prevent this from happening and here is where the vaccine

happening and here is where the vaccine

happening and here is where the vaccine comes in now don’t worry this vaccine

comes in now don’t worry this vaccine

comes in now don’t worry this vaccine doesn’t require a needle but I’ll

doesn’t require a needle but I’ll

doesn’t require a needle but I’ll briefly explain how it works so

briefly explain how it works so

briefly explain how it works so basically it relies on a biological

basically it relies on a biological

basically it relies on a biological metaphor so just as injecting yourself

metaphor so just as injecting yourself

metaphor so just as injecting yourself with a weakened strain of a virus

with a weakened strain of a virus

with a weakened strain of a virus triggers antibodies in our immune system

triggers antibodies in our immune system

triggers antibodies in our immune system which then help confer resistance

which then help confer resistance

which then help confer resistance against future infection the same can be

against future infection the same can be

against future infection the same can be achieved with misinformation and

achieved with misinformation and

achieved with misinformation and information and so essentially

information and so essentially

information and so essentially inoculation theory which is a

inoculation theory which is a

inoculation theory which is a psychological theory it basically

psychological theory it basically

psychological theory it basically suggests that we can extract a bit of

suggests that we can extract a bit of

suggests that we can extract a bit of the DNA from the misinformation and use

the DNA from the misinformation and use

the DNA from the misinformation and use it against itself and the way that this

it against itself and the way that this

it against itself and the way that this works is as follows in the partial

works is as follows in the partial

works is as follows in the partial vaccine condition we warn people

vaccine condition we warn people

vaccine condition we warn people preemptively that the

preemptively that the

preemptively that the politically motivated actors that are

politically motivated actors that are

politically motivated actors that are trying to influence us by using

trying to influence us by using

trying to influence us by using misleading tactics for example you might

misleading tactics for example you might

misleading tactics for example you might hear that there’s a lot of disagreement

hear that there’s a lot of disagreement

hear that there’s a lot of disagreement among scientists about climate change

among scientists about climate change

among scientists about climate change but in fact that this is nonsense and

but in fact that this is nonsense and

but in fact that this is nonsense and that 97% of scientists agree in the full

that 97% of scientists agree in the full

that 97% of scientists agree in the full vaccine condition what we did is we pre

vaccine condition what we did is we pre

vaccine condition what we did is we pre bunked the misinformation debunking is

bunked the misinformation debunking is

bunked the misinformation debunking is not that effective because issuing

not that effective because issuing

not that effective because issuing Corrections after the fact are simply

Corrections after the fact are simply

Corrections after the fact are simply not as effective think about it like

not as effective think about it like

not as effective think about it like this right it is better to try to

this right it is better to try to

this right it is better to try to prevent an accident from happening than

prevent an accident from happening than

prevent an accident from happening than treating someone after they had an

treating someone after they had an

treating someone after they had an accident and so what we’re trying to do

accident and so what we’re trying to do

accident and so what we’re trying to do is play offense rather than defense and

is play offense rather than defense and

is play offense rather than defense and so what happened here is we told people

so what happened here is we told people

so what happened here is we told people well you might hear of this petition but

well you might hear of this petition but

well you might hear of this petition but you shouldn’t actually buy into this

you shouldn’t actually buy into this

you shouldn’t actually buy into this petition because the signatories on this

petition because the signatories on this

petition because the signatories on this petition include Charles Darwin members

petition include Charles Darwin members

petition include Charles Darwin members of the Spice Girls and all kinds of

of the Spice Girls and all kinds of

of the Spice Girls and all kinds of other individuals that are actually

other individuals that are actually

other individuals that are actually either no longer alive or on show

either no longer alive or on show

either no longer alive or on show business and things like that and so

business and things like that and so

business and things like that and so there’s actually no scientific evidence

there’s actually no scientific evidence

there’s actually no scientific evidence to support this petition and so what

to support this petition and so what

to support this petition and so what happened in these conditions is that

happened in these conditions is that

happened in these conditions is that when people were preemptively inoculated

when people were preemptively inoculated

when people were preemptively inoculated against the petition when they were

against the petition when they were

against the petition when they were shown the full misinformation condition

shown the full misinformation condition

shown the full misinformation condition at the end they were less resistant and

at the end they were less resistant and

at the end they were less resistant and less influenced by the misinformation

less influenced by the misinformation

less influenced by the misinformation now I’m not trying to sell you a magic

now I’m not trying to sell you a magic

now I’m not trying to sell you a magic vaccine here as you can see the vaccine

vaccine here as you can see the vaccine

vaccine here as you can see the vaccine conditions recuperated about 1/3 and 2/3

conditions recuperated about 1/3 and 2/3

conditions recuperated about 1/3 and 2/3 of the original effect but it’s

of the original effect but it’s

of the original effect but it’s promising and what’s especially

promising and what’s especially

promising and what’s especially promising is that we observed this

promising is that we observed this

promising is that we observed this effect across the ideological spectrum

effect across the ideological spectrum

effect across the ideological spectrum so in the condition where the two

so in the condition where the two

so in the condition where the two information conditions were paired

information conditions were paired

information conditions were paired against each other there was clear

against each other there was clear

against each other there was clear evidence of confirmation bias those

evidence of confirmation bias those

evidence of confirmation bias those people who already believed one side

people who already believed one side

people who already believed one side tended to gravitate towards those facts

tended to gravitate towards those facts

tended to gravitate towards those facts and people who disagreed tend to

and people who disagreed tend to

and people who disagreed tend to gravitate towards the other side and

gravitate towards the other side and

gravitate towards the other side and that breeds room for processes like

that breeds room for processes like

that breeds room for processes like selective attention and confirmation

selective attention and confirmation

selective attention and confirmation bias but we did not find this in the

bias but we did not find this in the

bias but we did not find this in the inoculation conditions it didn’t matter

inoculation conditions it didn’t matter

inoculation conditions it didn’t matter what end of the political spectrum you

what end of the political spectrum you

what end of the political spectrum you were on what your prior beliefs were the

were on what your prior beliefs were the

were on what your prior beliefs were the inoculation was effective in that it

inoculation was effective in that it

inoculation was effective in that it brought people closer together towards

brought people closer together towards

brought people closer together towards the conclusions of climate science and a

the conclusions of climate science and a

the conclusions of climate science and a reduced polarization so in a time where

reduced polarization so in a time where

reduced polarization so in a time where our value sets

our value sets

our value sets are not overlapping there’s an

are not overlapping there’s an

are not overlapping there’s an opportunity to unite people by a common

opportunity to unite people by a common

opportunity to unite people by a common interest not to be duped by fake news

interest not to be duped by fake news

interest not to be duped by fake news and that good colleague of mine John

and that good colleague of mine John

and that good colleague of mine John cooks at this and I think that this

cooks at this and I think that this

cooks at this and I think that this actually resonates quite well now the

actually resonates quite well now the

actually resonates quite well now the real power of this vaccine is in its

real power of this vaccine is in its

real power of this vaccine is in its ability to share it socially if you know

ability to share it socially if you know

ability to share it socially if you know and fake news stories coming out and

and fake news stories coming out and

and fake news stories coming out and your friends haven’t seen it yet there

your friends haven’t seen it yet there

your friends haven’t seen it yet there is an opportunity to inoculate people

is an opportunity to inoculate people

is an opportunity to inoculate people interpersonally to actually spread the

interpersonally to actually spread the

interpersonally to actually spread the vaccine socially just as regular

vaccine socially just as regular

vaccine socially just as regular vaccines can create herd immunity

vaccines can create herd immunity

vaccines can create herd immunity against the spread of a contagion we can

against the spread of a contagion we can

against the spread of a contagion we can create societal resistance against fake

create societal resistance against fake

create societal resistance against fake news by inoculating each other against

news by inoculating each other against

news by inoculating each other against the spread of fake news and the last

the spread of fake news and the last

the spread of fake news and the last thing I’ll say and I think this is an

thing I’ll say and I think this is an

thing I’ll say and I think this is an idea we’re sharing with you is that this

idea we’re sharing with you is that this

idea we’re sharing with you is that this vaccine does not require a needle it is

vaccine does not require a needle it is

vaccine does not require a needle it is freely available open access for

freely available open access for

freely available open access for everyone to use and most importantly

everyone to use and most importantly

everyone to use and most importantly pre-existing conditions are extremely

pre-existing conditions are extremely

pre-existing conditions are extremely welcome thank you

welcome thank you

welcome thank you [Applause]