most of us have a turning point in our lives a pivotal moment where you
lives a pivotal moment where you
lives a pivotal moment where you wondered how did this happen
wondered how did this happen
wondered how did this happen mine was 1989 I made three films lean on
mine was 1989 I made three films lean on
mine was 1989 I made three films lean on me
me
me Driving Miss Daisy and Gloria did I make
Driving Miss Daisy and Gloria did I make
Driving Miss Daisy and Gloria did I make it happen was someone up there calling
it happen was someone up there calling
it happen was someone up there calling the shots or was i lucky to try to
the shots or was i lucky to try to
the shots or was i lucky to try to understand this I’ve arranged to meet a
understand this I’ve arranged to meet a
understand this I’ve arranged to meet a psychology professor who thinks we often
psychology professor who thinks we often
psychology professor who thinks we often mistake random chance for miracles danny
mistake random chance for miracles danny
mistake random chance for miracles danny Oppenheimer it’s nice to see you how are
Oppenheimer it’s nice to see you how are
Oppenheimer it’s nice to see you how are you today I’m good you I’m good
you today I’m good you I’m good
you today I’m good you I’m good hey what are you doing I’m flipping
hey what are you doing I’m flipping
hey what are you doing I’m flipping coins why I’m looking for streaks
coins why I’m looking for streaks
coins why I’m looking for streaks streaks yeah if you flip a coin enough
streaks yeah if you flip a coin enough
streaks yeah if you flip a coin enough times you’re gonna get a streak really
that’s a lot of tails well if I flip a
that’s a lot of tails well if I flip a coin twice and I get heads both time is
coin twice and I get heads both time is
coin twice and I get heads both time is that miraculous uh no to do it 50 times
that miraculous uh no to do it 50 times
that miraculous uh no to do it 50 times and you get 60 that’s the miracle well
and you get 60 that’s the miracle well
and you get 60 that’s the miracle well yeah if you get more than you flip
yeah if you get more than you flip
yeah if you get more than you flip certainly but how rare does an event
certainly but how rare does an event
certainly but how rare does an event have to be before we would call it
have to be before we would call it
have to be before we would call it miraculous one in a million one in a
miraculous one in a million one in a
miraculous one in a million one in a billion
billion
billion I’ll choose billion all right one in a
I’ll choose billion all right one in a
I’ll choose billion all right one in a million well let’s try something
all right Jack of Diamonds six of spades
all right Jack of Diamonds six of spades King of Spades two of hearts seven of
King of Spades two of hearts seven of
King of Spades two of hearts seven of diamonds and Ace of Spades is it
diamonds and Ace of Spades is it
diamonds and Ace of Spades is it miraculous to have gotten this sequence
miraculous to have gotten this sequence
miraculous to have gotten this sequence no I mean it’s just just random select
no I mean it’s just just random select
no I mean it’s just just random select new cards off of the day well right but
new cards off of the day well right but
new cards off of the day well right but this particular sequence starting with
this particular sequence starting with
this particular sequence starting with the jack and then getting the six of
the jack and then getting the six of
the jack and then getting the six of spades and then king of spades it only
spades and then king of spades it only
spades and then king of spades it only happens one in about fourteen billion
happens one in about fourteen billion
happens one in about fourteen billion times you draw 6 cards so it’s pretty
times you draw 6 cards so it’s pretty
times you draw 6 cards so it’s pretty miraculous by your one-in-a-billion
miraculous by your one-in-a-billion
miraculous by your one-in-a-billion standard so you telling me that this is
standard so you telling me that this is
standard so you telling me that this is miraculous
miraculous
miraculous well no as you said before it’s just a
well no as you said before it’s just a
well no as you said before it’s just a random set of cards what if it was first
random set of cards what if it was first
random set of cards what if it was first six digits of your social security
six digits of your social security
six digits of your social security number what if it were the last six
number what if it were the last six
number what if it were the last six digits of your social security number
digits of your social security number
digits of your social security number the first six digits of your phone
the first six digits of your phone
the first six digits of your phone number sometimes it’s not actually
number sometimes it’s not actually
number sometimes it’s not actually miraculous sometimes it’s just
miraculous sometimes it’s just
miraculous sometimes it’s just probability playing its tricks on you
probability playing its tricks on you
probability playing its tricks on you all right so how do we include the
all right so how do we include the
all right so how do we include the divine because there are people who
divine because there are people who
divine because there are people who really do think that there is divine
really do think that there is divine
really do think that there is divine intervention in these kinds of inter
intervention in these kinds of inter
intervention in these kinds of inter plays absolutely and nothing I’m saying
plays absolutely and nothing I’m saying
plays absolutely and nothing I’m saying here rules out the possibility of the
here rules out the possibility of the
here rules out the possibility of the divine the fact that probability
divine the fact that probability
divine the fact that probability predicts certain things doesn’t mean
predicts certain things doesn’t mean
predicts certain things doesn’t mean that there can’t be divine intervention
that there can’t be divine intervention
that there can’t be divine intervention but miraculous things that are so
but miraculous things that are so
but miraculous things that are so unlikely that you think it can’t happen
unlikely that you think it can’t happen
unlikely that you think it can’t happen by chance alone they do happen and they
by chance alone they do happen and they
by chance alone they do happen and they have to happen it would be odd if they
have to happen it would be odd if they
have to happen it would be odd if they didn’t because with six billion people
didn’t because with six billion people
didn’t because with six billion people in the world there are so many
in the world there are so many
in the world there are so many opportunities for something really
opportunities for something really
opportunities for something really unusual to happen we would expect it to
unusual to happen we would expect it to
unusual to happen we would expect it to happen to some of them
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