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Chasing the Wrong Lead | Dirk Philipsen | TEDxDuke


[Music]

[Music] as I’m apparently the last person wow I

as I’m apparently the last person wow I

as I’m apparently the last person wow I can’t see you to speak can we give it up

can’t see you to speak can we give it up

can’t see you to speak can we give it up for the wonderful students all backstage

for the wonderful students all backstage

for the wonderful students all backstage who have put an enormous amount of work

who have put an enormous amount of work

who have put an enormous amount of work [Applause]

[Applause]

[Applause] so I’m going to talk to you about some

so I’m going to talk to you about some

so I’m going to talk to you about some big questions if I may big questions

big questions if I may big questions

big questions if I may big questions that were partly raised by a student of

that were partly raised by a student of

that were partly raised by a student of mine in a class that I teach on the

mine in a class that I teach on the

mine in a class that I teach on the history of capitalism and she asked this

history of capitalism and she asked this

history of capitalism and she asked this very simple question to which i did not

very simple question to which i did not

very simple question to which i did not have an answer which was how do we know

have an answer which was how do we know

have an answer which was how do we know we’re on the right track how did we do

we’re on the right track how did we do

we’re on the right track how did we do we’re doing well so how do we so when

we’re doing well so how do we so when

we’re doing well so how do we so when you look around today wouldn’t be

you look around today wouldn’t be

you look around today wouldn’t be particularly novel to say that we are

particularly novel to say that we are

particularly novel to say that we are facing as Americans and as citizens of

facing as Americans and as citizens of

facing as Americans and as citizens of the world enormous problems and

the world enormous problems and

the world enormous problems and challenges they range from political

challenges they range from political

challenges they range from political divisions to conflict to climate change

divisions to conflict to climate change

divisions to conflict to climate change to inequality and so on and so forth so

to inequality and so on and so forth so

to inequality and so on and so forth so what I’m going to do today is suggest to

what I’m going to do today is suggest to

what I’m going to do today is suggest to you that all of these problems or at

you that all of these problems or at

you that all of these problems or at least many of these problems have in

least many of these problems have in

least many of these problems have in fact a common cause and a common origin

fact a common cause and a common origin

fact a common cause and a common origin so that’s quite a claim so bear with me

so that’s quite a claim so bear with me

so that’s quite a claim so bear with me and I want to try to clarify this at

and I want to try to clarify this at

and I want to try to clarify this at first with a couple of questions so when

first with a couple of questions so when

first with a couple of questions so when you look at this column of very

you look at this column of very

you look at this column of very different things I would argue that they

different things I would argue that they

different things I would argue that they all have something profound in common

all have something profound in common

all have something profound in common what might that be what they have in

what might that be what they have in

what might that be what they have in common is that according to the metrics

common is that according to the metrics

common is that according to the metrics we use to measure success in our society

we use to measure success in our society

we use to measure success in our society they all contribute to well-being now

they all contribute to well-being now

they all contribute to well-being now let me put up another column

let me put up another column

let me put up another column I again a number of very different

I again a number of very different

I again a number of very different things and they too I believe have

things and they too I believe have

things and they too I believe have something profound in common and you

something profound in common and you

something profound in common and you might already into it an answer which is

might already into it an answer which is

might already into it an answer which is of course that they actually contribute

of course that they actually contribute

of course that they actually contribute to well-being but the more troubling

to well-being but the more troubling

to well-being but the more troubling answer is that none of these things are

answer is that none of these things are

answer is that none of these things are measured and the metrics we use in order

measured and the metrics we use in order

measured and the metrics we use in order to define success in our society that is

to define success in our society that is

to define success in our society that is the problem so since that is true i also

the problem so since that is true i also

the problem so since that is true i also would argue that what informs policy

would argue that what informs policy

would argue that what informs policy making politicians business leaders

making politicians business leaders

making politicians business leaders economists in terms of making decisions

economists in terms of making decisions

economists in terms of making decisions from the small to the large about our

from the small to the large about our

from the small to the large about our society is essentially informed by the

society is essentially informed by the

society is essentially informed by the column on the left and not by the column

column on the left and not by the column

column on the left and not by the column on the right so what is the central

on the right so what is the central

on the right so what is the central problem here the central problem is I

problem here the central problem is I

problem here the central problem is I think that our metrics of success are

think that our metrics of success are

think that our metrics of success are defined largely by growth and not by

defined largely by growth and not by

defined largely by growth and not by well-being right we look at transactions

well-being right we look at transactions

well-being right we look at transactions in the market not relations we look at

in the market not relations we look at

in the market not relations we look at quantity not quality we look at output

quantity not quality we look at output

quantity not quality we look at output but we don’t look at outcome that is a

but we don’t look at outcome that is a

but we don’t look at outcome that is a big problem now how do we define growth

big problem now how do we define growth

big problem now how do we define growth what is growth and interestingly enough

what is growth and interestingly enough

what is growth and interestingly enough this is a question that really is asked

this is a question that really is asked

this is a question that really is asked in politics we just know that it’s good

in politics we just know that it’s good

in politics we just know that it’s good so how is it measured and of course many

so how is it measured and of course many

so how is it measured and of course many of you have heard this and many of you

of you have heard this and many of you

of you have heard this and many of you see it every day in the newspapers it is

see it every day in the newspapers it is

see it every day in the newspapers it is measured by GDP which stands for gross

measured by GDP which stands for gross

measured by GDP which stands for gross domestic product

what does that mean it is a particular

what does that mean it is a particular kind of measure that is interesting in

kind of measure that is interesting in

kind of measure that is interesting in part because it is a measure that is now

part because it is a measure that is now

part because it is a measure that is now worldwide every single nation on earth

worldwide every single nation on earth

worldwide every single nation on earth with the possible exception of Bhutan is

with the possible exception of Bhutan is

with the possible exception of Bhutan is measuring its success with GDP it’s the

measuring its success with GDP it’s the

measuring its success with GDP it’s the only ideology I know that is literally

only ideology I know that is literally

only ideology I know that is literally universal independent of whether

universal independent of whether

universal independent of whether countries are large or small rich or

countries are large or small rich or

countries are large or small rich or poor developed or underdeveloped

poor developed or underdeveloped

poor developed or underdeveloped authoritarian or democratic all follow

authoritarian or democratic all follow

authoritarian or democratic all follow this metric why is this a problem this

this metric why is this a problem this

this metric why is this a problem this is a problem I would argue because

is a problem I would argue because

is a problem I would argue because number one it’s a terrible metric for

number one it’s a terrible metric for

number one it’s a terrible metric for wellbeing it is not even a particularly

wellbeing it is not even a particularly

wellbeing it is not even a particularly good economic metric why is that well I

good economic metric why is that well I

good economic metric why is that well I give you some some some examples for

give you some some some examples for

give you some some some examples for that first of all it doesn’t

that first of all it doesn’t

that first of all it doesn’t differentiate between costs and benefits

differentiate between costs and benefits

differentiate between costs and benefits it can’t tell you whether something is

it can’t tell you whether something is

it can’t tell you whether something is good or bad that we’re doing in the

good or bad that we’re doing in the

good or bad that we’re doing in the economy so it doesn’t tell you whether

economy so it doesn’t tell you whether

economy so it doesn’t tell you whether you know buying a pack of cigarettes or

you know buying a pack of cigarettes or

you know buying a pack of cigarettes or buying you know buying a bicycle whether

buying you know buying a bicycle whether

buying you know buying a bicycle whether you build toys or whether you build

you build toys or whether you build

you build toys or whether you build weapons it makes no difference all of it

weapons it makes no difference all of it

weapons it makes no difference all of it is measured equally in GDP it also tells

is measured equally in GDP it also tells

is measured equally in GDP it also tells us nothing about inequality so when you

us nothing about inequality so when you

us nothing about inequality so when you read in the newspaper per capita GDP of

read in the newspaper per capita GDP of

read in the newspaper per capita GDP of our country it doesn’t tell you anything

our country it doesn’t tell you anything

our country it doesn’t tell you anything about how this is differentiated between

about how this is differentiated between

about how this is differentiated between rich and poor in fact as in the United

rich and poor in fact as in the United

rich and poor in fact as in the United States increasingly the top can be very

States increasingly the top can be very

States increasingly the top can be very rich and the bottom makes no gains for a

rich and the bottom makes no gains for a

rich and the bottom makes no gains for a long time and it still looks very good

long time and it still looks very good

long time and it still looks very good so what GDP does one way to capture this

so what GDP does one way to capture this

so what GDP does one way to capture this is to say that it measures the goods

is to say that it measures the goods

is to say that it measures the goods life and not the good life it is what

life and not the good life it is what

life and not the good life it is what Robert Kennedy in 1968 already said when

Robert Kennedy in 1968 already said when

Robert Kennedy in 1968 already said when he said you know GDP in short measures

he said you know GDP in short measures

he said you know GDP in short measures everything except that which makes life

everything except that which makes life

everything except that which makes life worthwhile there’s another problem with

worthwhile there’s another problem with

worthwhile there’s another problem with GDP which is that it doesn’t take into

GDP which is that it doesn’t take into

GDP which is that it doesn’t take into account the future at all it says

account the future at all it says

account the future at all it says absolutely nothing as in terms

absolutely nothing as in terms

absolutely nothing as in terms what we’re leaving behind for future

what we’re leaving behind for future

what we’re leaving behind for future generations a fairly famous entrepreneur

generations a fairly famous entrepreneur

generations a fairly famous entrepreneur by the name of Paul Hawkins once said it

by the name of Paul Hawkins once said it

by the name of Paul Hawkins once said it steals the future sales it in the

steals the future sales it in the

steals the future sales it in the present and calls the GDP so what

present and calls the GDP so what

present and calls the GDP so what everybody advocates here is not just

everybody advocates here is not just

everybody advocates here is not just linear growth it is actually exponential

linear growth it is actually exponential

linear growth it is actually exponential growth which is another problem with GDP

growth which is another problem with GDP

growth which is another problem with GDP so I don’t want to go through all of

so I don’t want to go through all of

so I don’t want to go through all of this but what this just says you know

this but what this just says you know

this but what this just says you know when you start with a base year of 2000

when you start with a base year of 2000

when you start with a base year of 2000 which is the year that many of my

which is the year that many of my

which is the year that many of my students were born when you go to the

students were born when you go to the

students were born when you go to the year in which they will likely retire

year in which they will likely retire

year in which they will likely retire something like that 2070 you would

something like that 2070 you would

something like that 2070 you would already have to have an economy that is

already have to have an economy that is

already have to have an economy that is putting out 16 times as much if you took

putting out 16 times as much if you took

putting out 16 times as much if you took what economy is considered to be a

what economy is considered to be a

what economy is considered to be a healthy growth rate of four percent and

healthy growth rate of four percent and

healthy growth rate of four percent and of course if you go all the way down the

of course if you go all the way down the

of course if you go all the way down the line 200 years after my students were

line 200 years after my students were

line 200 years after my students were born you would already need output that

born you would already need output that

born you would already need output that is 4,000 times as much as we’re

is 4,000 times as much as we’re

is 4,000 times as much as we’re currently producing in this economy now

currently producing in this economy now

currently producing in this economy now if you consider this to be somewhat

if you consider this to be somewhat

if you consider this to be somewhat insane you would be right the problem is

insane you would be right the problem is

insane you would be right the problem is that this is precisely what informs top

that this is precisely what informs top

that this is precisely what informs top decision-making among politicians

decision-making among politicians

decision-making among politicians policymakers economist business leaders

policymakers economist business leaders

policymakers economist business leaders around the world who tell you

around the world who tell you

around the world who tell you essentially that what we need is this

essentially that what we need is this

essentially that what we need is this kind of growth this will solve all of

kind of growth this will solve all of

kind of growth this will solve all of our problems prosperity and progress

our problems prosperity and progress

our problems prosperity and progress will depend on this kind of growth

there’s one way to show what this

there’s one way to show what this actually means this is a really powerful

actually means this is a really powerful

actually means this is a really powerful set of graphs and I’m not going to have

set of graphs and I’m not going to have

set of graphs and I’m not going to have it up very long but you should look at

it up very long but you should look at

it up very long but you should look at it at some point and so what this

it at some point and so what this

it at some point and so what this essentially says is on the left we have

essentially says is on the left we have

essentially says is on the left we have exponentially increasing human activity

exponentially increasing human activity

exponentially increasing human activity and on the right we have increasing Hugh

and on the right we have increasing Hugh

and on the right we have increasing Hugh echo system destruction and what it

echo system destruction and what it

echo system destruction and what it essentially says is that the two are

essentially says is that the two are

essentially says is that the two are correlated right we can’t have one

correlated right we can’t have one

correlated right we can’t have one without the other and so one of the

without the other and so one of the

without the other and so one of the things that happens is of course that we

things that happens is of course that we

things that happens is of course that we are undermining the very natural

are undermining the very natural

are undermining the very natural foundations of our lives of our future a

economic growth is now pushing us to the

economic growth is now pushing us to the edge of the cliff when while it might

edge of the cliff when while it might

edge of the cliff when while it might have been a good thing in the past it no

have been a good thing in the past it no

have been a good thing in the past it no longer is it is an anachronistic thing

longer is it is an anachronistic thing

longer is it is an anachronistic thing now this personally I personally think

now this personally I personally think

now this personally I personally think that nothing in dangers the future

that nothing in dangers the future

that nothing in dangers the future well-being of young people more than

well-being of young people more than

well-being of young people more than this and I’m not even talking about the

this and I’m not even talking about the

this and I’m not even talking about the planet the planet will be fine with or

planet the planet will be fine with or

planet the planet will be fine with or without us and I’m not also talking

without us and I’m not also talking

without us and I’m not also talking about the politics of it all and our

about the politics of it all and our

about the politics of it all and our proclivity to elect people into power

proclivity to elect people into power

proclivity to elect people into power who may not always be particularly

who may not always be particularly

who may not always be particularly competent I am just simply talking about

competent I am just simply talking about

competent I am just simply talking about the survival the our survival as a

the survival the our survival as a

the survival the our survival as a species on this planet this keeps me up

species on this planet this keeps me up

species on this planet this keeps me up at night I am I have four children I

at night I am I have four children I

at night I am I have four children I love my students and yet we’re all

love my students and yet we’re all

love my students and yet we’re all they’re all we’re all making them

they’re all we’re all making them

they’re all we’re all making them passengers on the train racing towards

passengers on the train racing towards

passengers on the train racing towards the cliff in fact we teach them and

the cliff in fact we teach them and

the cliff in fact we teach them and educate them to be good passengers on

educate them to be good passengers on

educate them to be good passengers on the cliff on the train we tell them that

the cliff on the train we tell them that

the cliff on the train we tell them that their success will be measured by their

their success will be measured by their

their success will be measured by their contribution to speeding up the Train

contribution to speeding up the Train

contribution to speeding up the Train literally and very often we don’t tell

literally and very often we don’t tell

literally and very often we don’t tell them about the cliff in fact we as

them about the cliff in fact we as

them about the cliff in fact we as Americans today have the dubious

Americans today have the dubious

Americans today have the dubious distinction to be gone

distinction to be gone

distinction to be gone by the only major party in any developed

by the only major party in any developed

by the only major party in any developed nation on earth that effectively denies

nation on earth that effectively denies

nation on earth that effectively denies the very existence of the cliff so what

the very existence of the cliff so what

the very existence of the cliff so what do we need to do we need to

do we need to do we need to

do we need to do we need to fundamentally stop the train and we need

fundamentally stop the train and we need

fundamentally stop the train and we need to lay new tracks we need to focus on

to lay new tracks we need to focus on

to lay new tracks we need to focus on development rather than growth we need

development rather than growth we need

development rather than growth we need to focus on better not more now this is

to focus on better not more now this is

to focus on better not more now this is not to say to clarify that i am against

not to say to clarify that i am against

not to say to clarify that i am against development in fact i am very much for

development in fact i am very much for

development in fact i am very much for development rather than growth

development rather than growth

development rather than growth development that takes into account the

development that takes into account the

development that takes into account the satisfaction of human needs of actual

satisfaction of human needs of actual

satisfaction of human needs of actual human needs and i also realize fully

human needs and i also realize fully

human needs and i also realize fully that there are lots of people in this

that there are lots of people in this

that there are lots of people in this world still who need growth who need

world still who need growth who need

world still who need growth who need more opportunities more jobs more

more opportunities more jobs more

more opportunities more jobs more education in fact one of the saddest

education in fact one of the saddest

education in fact one of the saddest statements of this growth regime is that

statements of this growth regime is that

statements of this growth regime is that we live in a world in which two billion

we live in a world in which two billion

we live in a world in which two billion people are still living in dire poverty

people are still living in dire poverty

people are still living in dire poverty which in absolute numbers may well be

which in absolute numbers may well be

which in absolute numbers may well be more than ever before so for young

more than ever before so for young

more than ever before so for young people in particular I think it is time

people in particular I think it is time

people in particular I think it is time to retire whoops GDP as grandpa’s

to retire whoops GDP as grandpa’s

to retire whoops GDP as grandpa’s definition of prosperity it is time to

definition of prosperity it is time to

definition of prosperity it is time to let go of it and the reason is very

let go of it and the reason is very

let go of it and the reason is very simple the reason is that it is our the

simple the reason is that it is our the

simple the reason is that it is our the moral imperative for all of us to leave

moral imperative for all of us to leave

moral imperative for all of us to leave behind a world that allows young people

behind a world that allows young people

behind a world that allows young people to prosper not just us the analogy with

to prosper not just us the analogy with

to prosper not just us the analogy with your bodies is by the way quite good

your bodies is by the way quite good

your bodies is by the way quite good because obviously we all grow until

because obviously we all grow until

because obviously we all grow until we’re about 20 but if somebody told you

we’re about 20 but if somebody told you

we’re about 20 but if somebody told you at 20 that you needed to take hormones

at 20 that you needed to take hormones

at 20 that you needed to take hormones and calories in order to continue to

and calories in order to continue to

and calories in order to continue to grow in both size and height you would

grow in both size and height you would

grow in both size and height you would probably think that person is a little

probably think that person is a little

probably think that person is a little crazy but if you lived in a society in

crazy but if you lived in a society in

crazy but if you lived in a society in which the entire health care system was

which the entire health care system was

which the entire health care system was premised on the idea that you could only

premised on the idea that you could only

premised on the idea that you could only be healthy if you kept growing you would

be healthy if you kept growing you would

be healthy if you kept growing you would probably be right to think about moving

probably be right to think about moving

probably be right to think about moving to

but that’s exactly where we are with our

but that’s exactly where we are with our economy that’s exactly what is happening

economy that’s exactly what is happening

economy that’s exactly what is happening we are being told that we need to keep

we are being told that we need to keep

we are being told that we need to keep growing even though we know we live in a

growing even though we know we live in a

growing even though we know we live in a finite planet and even though we know

finite planet and even though we know

finite planet and even though we know this is not going to change not not

this is not going to change not not

this is not going to change not not possible the climate change of course is

possible the climate change of course is

possible the climate change of course is just one of the many ways in which we

just one of the many ways in which we

just one of the many ways in which we can see that we’re running out of time

can see that we’re running out of time

can see that we’re running out of time but here’s my central argument this

but here’s my central argument this

but here’s my central argument this regime of growth while it has created

regime of growth while it has created

regime of growth while it has created unprecedented dangers also has created

unprecedented dangers also has created

unprecedented dangers also has created unprecedented opportunities we can stop

unprecedented opportunities we can stop

unprecedented opportunities we can stop that train and we can redirect it and we

that train and we can redirect it and we

that train and we can redirect it and we can start focusing on actually

can start focusing on actually

can start focusing on actually satisfying human needs now the great

satisfying human needs now the great

satisfying human needs now the great thing is we already know a lot about how

thing is we already know a lot about how

thing is we already know a lot about how to do this the great thing is also that

to do this the great thing is also that

to do this the great thing is also that everybody can contribute because there

everybody can contribute because there

everybody can contribute because there are more meaningful ways to engage in

are more meaningful ways to engage in

are more meaningful ways to engage in economics and in public policy making

economics and in public policy making

economics and in public policy making and in engineering and in biology in

and in engineering and in biology in

and in engineering and in biology in order to create things like closed-loop

order to create things like closed-loop

order to create things like closed-loop production or renewable energy centers

production or renewable energy centers

production or renewable energy centers and so on and so forth so in the end I

and so on and so forth so in the end I

and so on and so forth so in the end I would say that this there’s a lot of

would say that this there’s a lot of

would say that this there’s a lot of good rewarding things good good

good rewarding things good good

good rewarding things good good rewarding things that we can do and I

rewarding things that we can do and I

rewarding things that we can do and I would suggest that it’s probably better

would suggest that it’s probably better

would suggest that it’s probably better than just simply being a quiet passenger

than just simply being a quiet passenger

than just simply being a quiet passenger on a train racing towards the cliff so

on a train racing towards the cliff so

on a train racing towards the cliff so let’s just go do it thank

let’s just go do it thank

let’s just go do it thank [Applause]

”

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