[Applause] imagine being given an opportunity to
imagine being given an opportunity to
imagine being given an opportunity to explore part of nature that no one has
explore part of nature that no one has
explore part of nature that no one has ever seen or very few people I’m talking
ever seen or very few people I’m talking
ever seen or very few people I’m talking about the inside of a volcano that’s
about the inside of a volcano that’s
about the inside of a volcano that’s active the center of the earth the
active the center of the earth the
active the center of the earth the deepest trenches outer space well I had
deepest trenches outer space well I had
deepest trenches outer space well I had just such an opportunity after working
just such an opportunity after working
just such an opportunity after working for many years developing instruments to
for many years developing instruments to
for many years developing instruments to measure change
measure change
measure change acid rain global warming ozone depletion
acid rain global warming ozone depletion
acid rain global warming ozone depletion really weather instruments but
really weather instruments but
really weather instruments but scientific grade the Navy came to me
scientific grade the Navy came to me
scientific grade the Navy came to me after I wrote them a white paper and
after I wrote them a white paper and
after I wrote them a white paper and they said hey we want you to help us
they said hey we want you to help us
they said hey we want you to help us work on this problem week we can predict
work on this problem week we can predict
work on this problem week we can predict where hurricanes are going but we can’t
where hurricanes are going but we can’t
where hurricanes are going but we can’t predict what they’ll do when they get
predict what they’ll do when they get
predict what they’ll do when they get there that is the intensity so a large
there that is the intensity so a large
there that is the intensity so a large scientific community’s been working on
scientific community’s been working on
scientific community’s been working on this for many decades and this was an
this for many decades and this was an
this for many decades and this was an incredible opportunity so if you
incredible opportunity so if you
incredible opportunity so if you remember back from science class
remember back from science class
remember back from science class hurricanes are these devastating storms
hurricanes are these devastating storms
hurricanes are these devastating storms they’re massive but no two storms are
they’re massive but no two storms are
they’re massive but no two storms are the same and it turns out that they only
the same and it turns out that they only
the same and it turns out that they only start away from the equator they need
start away from the equator they need
start away from the equator they need warm water high sea surface temperatures
warm water high sea surface temperatures
warm water high sea surface temperatures cooperative winds in the upper air we
cooperative winds in the upper air we
cooperative winds in the upper air we call the upper part of the storm and you
call the upper part of the storm and you
call the upper part of the storm and you also have to have high humidity in a
also have to have high humidity in a
also have to have high humidity in a series of cooperating factors that lead
series of cooperating factors that lead
series of cooperating factors that lead to Genesis and once they get going the
to Genesis and once they get going the
to Genesis and once they get going the Coriolis effects that’s in in the
Coriolis effects that’s in in the
Coriolis effects that’s in in the northern hemisphere they spin
northern hemisphere they spin
northern hemisphere they spin counterclockwise in the southern
counterclockwise in the southern
counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere the other way and the trick
hemisphere the other way and the trick
hemisphere the other way and the trick is it’s a heat engine the Sun is really
is it’s a heat engine the Sun is really
is it’s a heat engine the Sun is really the engine that pushes the storm forward
the engine that pushes the storm forward
the engine that pushes the storm forward so the warm water at the base gets
so the warm water at the base gets
so the warm water at the base gets pulled up into the eye and thrusts out
pulled up into the eye and thrusts out
pulled up into the eye and thrusts out the top and what’s called the outflow
the top and what’s called the outflow
the top and what’s called the outflow now we’ve been flying into hurricanes
now we’ve been flying into hurricanes
now we’ve been flying into hurricanes for many years and here’s an example of
for many years and here’s an example of
for many years and here’s an example of the hurricane tracks from the season to
the hurricane tracks from the season to
the hurricane tracks from the season to 2015 for the Atlantic Basin and you can
2015 for the Atlantic Basin and you can
2015 for the Atlantic Basin and you can see that the storm tracks kind of a
see that the storm tracks kind of a
see that the storm tracks kind of a random and sometimes you know one will
random and sometimes you know one will
random and sometimes you know one will shoot from the East Coast the United
shoot from the East Coast the United
shoot from the East Coast the United States over to Europe and some of them
States over to Europe and some of them
States over to Europe and some of them will die out in the middle of the ocean
will die out in the middle of the ocean
will die out in the middle of the ocean but you don’t hear about a lot of these
but you don’t hear about a lot of these
but you don’t hear about a lot of these until they make landfall because when
until they make landfall because when
until they make landfall because when they make landfall bad things
they make landfall bad things
they make landfall bad things happen it turns out out in the deep
happen it turns out out in the deep
happen it turns out out in the deep ocean the deep water below what’s called
ocean the deep water below what’s called
ocean the deep water below what’s called the thermocline regulates the intensity
the thermocline regulates the intensity
the thermocline regulates the intensity of these storms now take a look at that
of these storms now take a look at that
of these storms now take a look at that red trace near cuba that storm we’re
red trace near cuba that storm we’re
red trace near cuba that storm we’re gonna talk about in a couple of minutes
gonna talk about in a couple of minutes
gonna talk about in a couple of minutes was hurricane joaquin it turned out to
was hurricane joaquin it turned out to
was hurricane joaquin it turned out to be a category four it went down towards
be a category four it went down towards
be a category four it went down towards Cuba and it took a 180 and it headed
Cuba and it took a 180 and it headed
Cuba and it took a 180 and it headed straight north so this is how he blue
straight north so this is how he blue
straight north so this is how he blue see in the lower left he’s a professor
see in the lower left he’s a professor
see in the lower left he’s a professor in Oklahoma and when he was at the same
in Oklahoma and when he was at the same
in Oklahoma and when he was at the same time I was a student here in the early
time I was a student here in the early
time I was a student here in the early 80s he developed the total tornado
80s he developed the total tornado
80s he developed the total tornado observatory with Alba Derrida colleague
observatory with Alba Derrida colleague
observatory with Alba Derrida colleague at NOAA and the idea was to put this
at NOAA and the idea was to put this
at NOAA and the idea was to put this thing out in front of a tornado and
thing out in front of a tornado and
thing out in front of a tornado and hopefully it would measure the intensity
hopefully it would measure the intensity
hopefully it would measure the intensity he tried this for a couple of years and
he tried this for a couple of years and
he tried this for a couple of years and he finally concluded this is a gonna be
he finally concluded this is a gonna be
he finally concluded this is a gonna be statistically impossible to get in front
statistically impossible to get in front
statistically impossible to get in front of a tornado but B if I do I’m gonna
of a tornado but B if I do I’m gonna
of a tornado but B if I do I’m gonna kill myself or one of my colleagues so
kill myself or one of my colleagues so
kill myself or one of my colleagues so he sort of gave up on it but he actually
he sort of gave up on it but he actually
he sort of gave up on it but he actually got an entire generation of students
got an entire generation of students
got an entire generation of students interested in science and meteorology
interested in science and meteorology
interested in science and meteorology which was a great great contribution so
which was a great great contribution so
which was a great great contribution so about 10 12 years later in 1996 the
about 10 12 years later in 1996 the
about 10 12 years later in 1996 the movie twister came out and that’s Helen
movie twister came out and that’s Helen
movie twister came out and that’s Helen Hunt playing the scientist Joe and she’s
Hunt playing the scientist Joe and she’s
Hunt playing the scientist Joe and she’s trying to deploy Dorothy was just really
trying to deploy Dorothy was just really
trying to deploy Dorothy was just really toto and I wrote a paper on our team
toto and I wrote a paper on our team
toto and I wrote a paper on our team wrote a paper to the Navy saying hey
wrote a paper to the Navy saying hey
wrote a paper to the Navy saying hey let’s do Dorothy from above let’s fly an
let’s do Dorothy from above let’s fly an
let’s do Dorothy from above let’s fly an airplane over it by the way the movie
airplane over it by the way the movie
airplane over it by the way the movie got a lot of things right except for the
got a lot of things right except for the
got a lot of things right except for the flying cows cows don’t fly people fly if
flying cows cows don’t fly people fly if
flying cows cows don’t fly people fly if you haven’t seen twister I highly
you haven’t seen twister I highly
you haven’t seen twister I highly recommend it it’s a very popular film
recommend it it’s a very popular film
recommend it it’s a very popular film back in 96 a lot of fun so we had been
back in 96 a lot of fun so we had been
back in 96 a lot of fun so we had been playing with these disposable weather
playing with these disposable weather
playing with these disposable weather sensors called drop Suns
sensors called drop Suns
sensors called drop Suns and the idea with this thing is that it
and the idea with this thing is that it
and the idea with this thing is that it falls and it takes what’s a data set
falls and it takes what’s a data set
falls and it takes what’s a data set called a sounding so it transmits back
called a sounding so it transmits back
called a sounding so it transmits back to the delivery vehicle you can also put
to the delivery vehicle you can also put
to the delivery vehicle you can also put these on a balloon it goes up or it
these on a balloon it goes up or it
these on a balloon it goes up or it comes down it’s the same thing but as it
comes down it’s the same thing but as it
comes down it’s the same thing but as it falls or as it goes up at the balloon it
falls or as it goes up at the balloon it
falls or as it goes up at the balloon it measures the wind speed in the direction
measures the wind speed in the direction
measures the wind speed in the direction it also measures the pressure
it also measures the pressure
it also measures the pressure temperature humidity it’s a little
temperature humidity it’s a little
temperature humidity it’s a little weather station and expendable and runs
weather station and expendable and runs
weather station and expendable and runs off a battery and we’ve had experience
off a battery and we’ve had experience
off a battery and we’ve had experience here we are playing around with one of
here we are playing around with one of
here we are playing around with one of the University of Massachusetts nearby
the University of Massachusetts nearby
the University of Massachusetts nearby and a nice day we’re going to about to
and a nice day we’re going to about to
and a nice day we’re going to about to launch the weather balloon by the way
launch the weather balloon by the way
launch the weather balloon by the way that’s taught a land near the cylinder
that’s taught a land near the cylinder
that’s taught a land near the cylinder tank
tank
tank with the yellow shirt on he’s one of the
with the yellow shirt on he’s one of the
with the yellow shirt on he’s one of the engineers he’s class of 1980 and we’re
engineers he’s class of 1980 and we’re
engineers he’s class of 1980 and we’re basically on a nice day trying to
basically on a nice day trying to
basically on a nice day trying to collect this data and experiment and
collect this data and experiment and
collect this data and experiment and tweak the instrument and get the
tweak the instrument and get the
tweak the instrument and get the engineering right by the way the data is
engineering right by the way the data is
engineering right by the way the data is often presented in this chart and the on
often presented in this chart and the on
often presented in this chart and the on the lower left corner it’s called a skew
the lower left corner it’s called a skew
the lower left corner it’s called a skew tee and that’s essentially all the
tee and that’s essentially all the
tee and that’s essentially all the parameters plotted together it’s what
parameters plotted together it’s what
parameters plotted together it’s what meteorologists care about now jump to
meteorologists care about now jump to
meteorologists care about now jump to professor carry a manual here
professor carry a manual here
professor carry a manual here he’s class in 1973 he’s an MIT
he’s class in 1973 he’s an MIT
he’s class in 1973 he’s an MIT meteorology professor he challenged the
meteorology professor he challenged the
meteorology professor he challenged the Navy with this sort of grand science
Navy with this sort of grand science
Navy with this sort of grand science problem he said look the earth is
problem he said look the earth is
problem he said look the earth is spherical galaxies are spherical
spherical galaxies are spherical
spherical galaxies are spherical hurricanes are spherical all the laws of
hurricanes are spherical all the laws of
hurricanes are spherical all the laws of nature have to do with radius and
nature have to do with radius and
nature have to do with radius and distance and here we are using gridded
distance and here we are using gridded
distance and here we are using gridded computer models why are we doing this
computer models why are we doing this
computer models why are we doing this why don’t we use three Oracle equations
why don’t we use three Oracle equations
why don’t we use three Oracle equations so he had a very different way and he
so he had a very different way and he
so he had a very different way and he sort of pioneered this idea of
sort of pioneered this idea of
sort of pioneered this idea of predicting hurricanes but he said
predicting hurricanes but he said
predicting hurricanes but he said unfortunately I need to know this number
unfortunately I need to know this number
unfortunately I need to know this number I need to know the ocean atmospheric
I need to know the ocean atmospheric
I need to know the ocean atmospheric coupling of energy that is the warmth
coupling of energy that is the warmth
coupling of energy that is the warmth that the water mixing in with the air
that the water mixing in with the air
that the water mixing in with the air temperature the thermodynamic forces and
temperature the thermodynamic forces and
temperature the thermodynamic forces and also the momentum that is the wind and
also the momentum that is the wind and
also the momentum that is the wind and the waves coupling and he said if I
the waves coupling and he said if I
the waves coupling and he said if I could get this measurement all you have
could get this measurement all you have
could get this measurement all you have to do is go down to the base of the
to do is go down to the base of the
to do is go down to the base of the eyewall and get it now it turns out
eyewall and get it now it turns out
eyewall and get it now it turns out that’s a pretty deadly area the winds
that’s a pretty deadly area the winds
that’s a pretty deadly area the winds can be very very high there in fact it’s
can be very very high there in fact it’s
can be very very high there in fact it’s very hard to even measure them we don’t
very hard to even measure them we don’t
very hard to even measure them we don’t even know how high they are and we
even know how high they are and we
even know how high they are and we started out thinking how what could
started out thinking how what could
started out thinking how what could possibly go wrong this sounds like fun
possibly go wrong this sounds like fun
possibly go wrong this sounds like fun and like many things in life you get
and like many things in life you get
and like many things in life you get into a problem and you all of a sudden
into a problem and you all of a sudden
into a problem and you all of a sudden realize oh man why did I agree to do
realize oh man why did I agree to do
realize oh man why did I agree to do this so we kept at it and after a brief
this so we kept at it and after a brief
this so we kept at it and after a brief time we realized you can’t design a
time we realized you can’t design a
time we realized you can’t design a one-size-fits-all robot to do this you
one-size-fits-all robot to do this you
one-size-fits-all robot to do this you have many different types of aircraft
have many different types of aircraft
have many different types of aircraft you have jets you have turbo props some
you have jets you have turbo props some
you have jets you have turbo props some fly low and they’re not pressurized but
fly low and they’re not pressurized but
fly low and they’re not pressurized but these are all the the commonly used
these are all the the commonly used
these are all the the commonly used types of aircraft the lower right-hand
types of aircraft the lower right-hand
types of aircraft the lower right-hand corner the Air Force Reserves fly
corner the Air Force Reserves fly
corner the Air Force Reserves fly routinely the Hurricane Hunters they’re
routinely the Hurricane Hunters they’re
routinely the Hurricane Hunters they’re Hercules very tough plane about ten
Hercules very tough plane about ten
Hercules very tough plane about ten thousand feet altitude into the
thousand feet altitude into the
thousand feet altitude into the hurricane and they make a couple of
hurricane and they make a couple of
hurricane and they make a couple of measurements so they’re dropping drops
measurements so they’re dropping drops
measurements so they’re dropping drops Ahn’s by hand I should add that we
Ahn’s by hand I should add that we
Ahn’s by hand I should add that we weren’t the first to this by any stretch
weren’t the first to this by any stretch
weren’t the first to this by any stretch this had been done manually well
this had been done manually well
this had been done manually well we were doing is high-definition that is
we were doing is high-definition that is
we were doing is high-definition that is many sensors with very high sampling
many sensors with very high sampling
many sensors with very high sampling speed so this was the little beginning
speed so this was the little beginning
speed so this was the little beginning of the robot we we thought we’d call it
of the robot we we thought we’d call it
of the robot we we thought we’d call it the airborne sounding system at first
the airborne sounding system at first
the airborne sounding system at first but everything needs a good acronym to
but everything needs a good acronym to
but everything needs a good acronym to get funded so we ended up calling it the
get funded so we ended up calling it the
get funded so we ended up calling it the a DD which is a little side joke as most
a DD which is a little side joke as most
a DD which is a little side joke as most people know I’m a DD but the a DD is
people know I’m a DD but the a DD is
people know I’m a DD but the a DD is consist of a drum and a bunch of custom
consist of a drum and a bunch of custom
consist of a drum and a bunch of custom electronics and a radio receiver and
electronics and a radio receiver and
electronics and a radio receiver and it’s a sort of a soda machine and it
it’s a sort of a soda machine and it
it’s a sort of a soda machine and it drops the Sonde’s which is cylindrical
drops the Sonde’s which is cylindrical
drops the Sonde’s which is cylindrical about the size of a soda can and it
about the size of a soda can and it
about the size of a soda can and it drops them in as they fall they transmit
drops them in as they fall they transmit
drops them in as they fall they transmit back to the plane so it went through
back to the plane so it went through
back to the plane so it went through many iterations on the top of this
many iterations on the top of this
many iterations on the top of this picture this was an early prototype we
picture this was an early prototype we
picture this was an early prototype we had a pressurized version you can kind
had a pressurized version you can kind
had a pressurized version you can kind of see I’m testing a hand dropped one on
of see I’m testing a hand dropped one on
of see I’m testing a hand dropped one on the dc-8 which is like a jetliner
the dc-8 which is like a jetliner
the dc-8 which is like a jetliner which has a tube and you open it and
which has a tube and you open it and
which has a tube and you open it and drop it out so we did lots of testing
drop it out so we did lots of testing
drop it out so we did lots of testing called flight testing over a period of
called flight testing over a period of
called flight testing over a period of years you’re looking at about five years
years you’re looking at about five years
years you’re looking at about five years of engineering time so it took a long
of engineering time so it took a long
of engineering time so it took a long time to kind of get to the point where
time to kind of get to the point where
time to kind of get to the point where we could do something real but then
we could do something real but then
we could do something real but then along one of the things it’s the Navy
along one of the things it’s the Navy
along one of the things it’s the Navy often gives you just enough rope to hang
often gives you just enough rope to hang
often gives you just enough rope to hang yourself by the way it’s the Office of
yourself by the way it’s the Office of
yourself by the way it’s the Office of Naval Research funded us and there
Naval Research funded us and there
Naval Research funded us and there they’re our nation’s oldest research
they’re our nation’s oldest research
they’re our nation’s oldest research laboratory they’ve done a lot of
laboratory they’ve done a lot of
laboratory they’ve done a lot of important things and they said oh by the
important things and they said oh by the
important things and they said oh by the way you have to do an intercomparison
way you have to do an intercomparison
way you have to do an intercomparison because nobody’s going to believe you if
because nobody’s going to believe you if
because nobody’s going to believe you if you have this sensor this new system and
you have this sensor this new system and
you have this sensor this new system and it doesn’t compare so you have to be
it doesn’t compare so you have to be
it doesn’t compare so you have to be ready to defend your data so here’s an
ready to defend your data so here’s an
ready to defend your data so here’s an inter comparison we did on the navy twin
inter comparison we did on the navy twin
inter comparison we did on the navy twin otter off the coast of california and
otter off the coast of california and
otter off the coast of california and after a lot of work it compared quite
after a lot of work it compared quite
after a lot of work it compared quite well and we had to develop cameras to
well and we had to develop cameras to
well and we had to develop cameras to watch make sure the sensor wouldn’t hit
watch make sure the sensor wouldn’t hit
watch make sure the sensor wouldn’t hit the airplane a lot of details here we
the airplane a lot of details here we
the airplane a lot of details here we are at 12 miles up 62,000 feet and if
are at 12 miles up 62,000 feet and if
are at 12 miles up 62,000 feet and if you look carefully at the top center of
you look carefully at the top center of
you look carefully at the top center of the screen there’s one of the sensors
the screen there’s one of the sensors
the screen there’s one of the sensors going out at 450 miles an hour
going out at 450 miles an hour
going out at 450 miles an hour and it turns out getting the sensor out
and it turns out getting the sensor out
and it turns out getting the sensor out the door is only half the problem
the door is only half the problem
the door is only half the problem because half the time they would
because half the time they would
because half the time they would self-destruct is a very light weight
self-destruct is a very light weight
self-destruct is a very light weight they’re mostly styrofoam and paper and I
they’re mostly styrofoam and paper and I
they’re mostly styrofoam and paper and I turned out to be quite a challenge to
turned out to be quite a challenge to
turned out to be quite a challenge to get to work by the way that’s the view
get to work by the way that’s the view
get to work by the way that’s the view of hurricane Erika in 2015 we finally
of hurricane Erika in 2015 we finally
of hurricane Erika in 2015 we finally got to this plane they they really
got to this plane they they really
got to this plane they they really wanted us to get to a drone but one of
wanted us to get to a drone but one of
wanted us to get to a drone but one of the parts of this story is the road kept
the parts of this story is the road kept
the parts of this story is the road kept changing it was like the yellow brick
changing it was like the yellow brick
changing it was like the yellow brick road and every year something happened
road and every year something happened
road and every year something happened no money or the plane was too
no money or the plane was too
no money or the plane was too so we didn’t end up going to a drone we
so we didn’t end up going to a drone we
so we didn’t end up going to a drone we went to this plane now this is one of
went to this plane now this is one of
went to this plane now this is one of the most famous planes in our history
the most famous planes in our history
the most famous planes in our history that you’ve never heard of we’ve all
that you’ve never heard of we’ve all
that you’ve never heard of we’ve all heard of the u2 this is the WB 57 which
heard of the u2 this is the WB 57 which
heard of the u2 this is the WB 57 which is able to fly at about the same height
is able to fly at about the same height
is able to fly at about the same height but take a look at the size of the jet
but take a look at the size of the jet
but take a look at the size of the jet engines they’re about the diameter of
engines they’re about the diameter of
engines they’re about the diameter of the fuselage this plane looks like
the fuselage this plane looks like
the fuselage this plane looks like something out of Star Wars and there’s
something out of Star Wars and there’s
something out of Star Wars and there’s only three left flying it used to be an
only three left flying it used to be an
only three left flying it used to be an Air Force bomber and this is a case
Air Force bomber and this is a case
Air Force bomber and this is a case where we we hammered swords into
where we we hammered swords into
where we we hammered swords into plowshares we’ve turned this into a
plowshares we’ve turned this into a
plowshares we’ve turned this into a scientific laboratory in the sky and
scientific laboratory in the sky and
scientific laboratory in the sky and basically the the dispenser became a
basically the the dispenser became a
basically the the dispenser became a double unit because this plane costs a
double unit because this plane costs a
double unit because this plane costs a hundred thousand dollars a day to fly so
hundred thousand dollars a day to fly so
hundred thousand dollars a day to fly so we didn’t want to have any unnecessary
we didn’t want to have any unnecessary
we didn’t want to have any unnecessary return to base scenarios because unlike
return to base scenarios because unlike
return to base scenarios because unlike the jetliner where I could walk over and
the jetliner where I could walk over and
the jetliner where I could walk over and turn a screw or adjust a knob you can’t
turn a screw or adjust a knob you can’t
turn a screw or adjust a knob you can’t do that because you can’t breathe
do that because you can’t breathe
do that because you can’t breathe there’s no one on the plane it’s
there’s no one on the plane it’s
there’s no one on the plane it’s literally lucky UAV so it’s a single
literally lucky UAV so it’s a single
literally lucky UAV so it’s a single pilot airplane with a backseat navigator
pilot airplane with a backseat navigator
pilot airplane with a backseat navigator and it’s quite a crew to run it so
and it’s quite a crew to run it so
and it’s quite a crew to run it so standing next to me is astronaut Greg
standing next to me is astronaut Greg
standing next to me is astronaut Greg Johnson who was the pilot on the shuttle
Johnson who was the pilot on the shuttle
Johnson who was the pilot on the shuttle that on the mission STS 125 that went up
that on the mission STS 125 that went up
that on the mission STS 125 that went up and repaired the Hubble Space Telescope
and repaired the Hubble Space Telescope
and repaired the Hubble Space Telescope so he’s a retired Navy captain Navy test
so he’s a retired Navy captain Navy test
so he’s a retired Navy captain Navy test pilot been to space many times if ever
pilot been to space many times if ever
pilot been to space many times if ever there was a true life MacGyver this guy
there was a true life MacGyver this guy
there was a true life MacGyver this guy was it we had the best pilots in the
was it we had the best pilots in the
was it we had the best pilots in the business working for us and notice a
business working for us and notice a
business working for us and notice a little air conditioner packs it’s about
little air conditioner packs it’s about
little air conditioner packs it’s about a hundred degrees in the shade in
a hundred degrees in the shade in
a hundred degrees in the shade in Houston where this picture was taken
Houston where this picture was taken
Houston where this picture was taken Todd Allen is in the green shirt for our
Todd Allen is in the green shirt for our
Todd Allen is in the green shirt for our left he did a lot of the firmware design
left he did a lot of the firmware design
left he did a lot of the firmware design electronics design and dr. Lee Harrison
electronics design and dr. Lee Harrison
electronics design and dr. Lee Harrison of SUNY Albany did a lot of the software
of SUNY Albany did a lot of the software
of SUNY Albany did a lot of the software work on this and he’s an atmospheric
work on this and he’s an atmospheric
work on this and he’s an atmospheric scientist and this is only part of the
scientist and this is only part of the
scientist and this is only part of the team we really a team of about five or
team we really a team of about five or
team we really a team of about five or six people but it really was a
six people but it really was a
six people but it really was a distributed team we had the Navy we had
distributed team we had the Navy we had
distributed team we had the Navy we had our team and right over the hill in
our team and right over the hill in
our team and right over the hill in Massachusetts and Montague and we got to
Massachusetts and Montague and we got to
Massachusetts and Montague and we got to a point where we really wanted to give
a point where we really wanted to give
a point where we really wanted to give up this was a lot harder than we thought
up this was a lot harder than we thought
up this was a lot harder than we thought and one of the takeaways is and this
and one of the takeaways is and this
and one of the takeaways is and this quote is attributed to Edison often in
quote is attributed to Edison often in
quote is attributed to Edison often in life you get stuck and you have to
life you get stuck and you have to
life you get stuck and you have to remember if they
remember if they
remember if they was easy someone else would have already
was easy someone else would have already
was easy someone else would have already done this and you have to kind of enter
done this and you have to kind of enter
done this and you have to kind of enter the beginning phase of the project with
the beginning phase of the project with
the beginning phase of the project with Oh what could possibly go wrong because
Oh what could possibly go wrong because
Oh what could possibly go wrong because if you don’t have that faith in your own
if you don’t have that faith in your own
if you don’t have that faith in your own ability you’ll never get anywhere at the
ability you’ll never get anywhere at the
ability you’ll never get anywhere at the same time you have to be a realist and
same time you have to be a realist and
same time you have to be a realist and if you’re running out of gas running out
if you’re running out of gas running out
if you’re running out of gas running out of money at a certain point you have to
of money at a certain point you have to
of money at a certain point you have to you have no other choice but to give up
you have no other choice but to give up
you have no other choice but to give up but it’s very important sometimes you
but it’s very important sometimes you
but it’s very important sometimes you don’t realize how close you are and we
don’t realize how close you are and we
don’t realize how close you are and we had a lot of problems the plane would
had a lot of problems the plane would
had a lot of problems the plane would work great on the ground we’d get up to
work great on the ground we’d get up to
work great on the ground we’d get up to 60,000 feet and nothing worked
60,000 feet and nothing worked
60,000 feet and nothing worked we’d go to 50,000 feet it would work and
we’d go to 50,000 feet it would work and
we’d go to 50,000 feet it would work and you have to get up high enough to get
you have to get up high enough to get
you have to get up high enough to get over the hurricane to fly safely so this
over the hurricane to fly safely so this
over the hurricane to fly safely so this turned out to be weeks and then months
turned out to be weeks and then months
turned out to be weeks and then months remotely working in the field trying to
remotely working in the field trying to
remotely working in the field trying to get this to work you couldn’t really
get this to work you couldn’t really
get this to work you couldn’t really simulate the environment and finally it
simulate the environment and finally it
simulate the environment and finally it was like the layers of the onion you
was like the layers of the onion you
was like the layers of the onion you peel back each layer
peel back each layer
peel back each layer finally the sucker started working and
finally the sucker started working and
finally the sucker started working and we got our first hurricane it turned out
we got our first hurricane it turned out
we got our first hurricane it turned out the first hurricane was in the Atlantic
the first hurricane was in the Atlantic
the first hurricane was in the Atlantic the second hurricane in 2015 was in the
the second hurricane in 2015 was in the
the second hurricane in 2015 was in the Pacific the third hurricane was in Italy
Pacific the third hurricane was in Italy
Pacific the third hurricane was in Italy and we were literally hopping on jet
and we were literally hopping on jet
and we were literally hopping on jet liners going back and forth between
liners going back and forth between
liners going back and forth between these forward bases that literally chase
these forward bases that literally chase
these forward bases that literally chase storms now the plane has a limited fuel
storms now the plane has a limited fuel
storms now the plane has a limited fuel range so it can only go so far so you
range so it can only go so far so you
range so it can only go so far so you have to forward deploy the plane which
have to forward deploy the plane which
have to forward deploy the plane which costs another hundred thousand dollars
costs another hundred thousand dollars
costs another hundred thousand dollars so it’s a very risky game and the Navy
so it’s a very risky game and the Navy
so it’s a very risky game and the Navy had to predict when the storm was going
had to predict when the storm was going
had to predict when the storm was going to be five days in advance to
to be five days in advance to
to be five days in advance to logistically allow NASA to get the b-57
logistically allow NASA to get the b-57
logistically allow NASA to get the b-57 into position so this is hurricane
into position so this is hurricane
into position so this is hurricane Joaquin and these are four different
Joaquin and these are four different
Joaquin and these are four different days this is sort of a mosaic so day one
days this is sort of a mosaic so day one
days this is sort of a mosaic so day one is on the bottom
is on the bottom
is on the bottom day four is on the top and each of those
day four is on the top and each of those
day four is on the top and each of those dots is where we dropped one of our
dots is where we dropped one of our
dots is where we dropped one of our sensors and we’re all flying from Warner
sensors and we’re all flying from Warner
sensors and we’re all flying from Warner Robins Air Force Base in Georgia and
Robins Air Force Base in Georgia and
Robins Air Force Base in Georgia and this was the Epiphany of on the first
this was the Epiphany of on the first
this was the Epiphany of on the first day it turned out we were 12 hours after
day it turned out we were 12 hours after
day it turned out we were 12 hours after the El Faro sank if you remember there
the El Faro sank if you remember there
the El Faro sank if you remember there was a there was a ship that went back
was a there was a ship that went back
was a there was a ship that went back and forth between Florida and Puerto
and forth between Florida and Puerto
and forth between Florida and Puerto Rico and I had 33 souls on it in its
Rico and I had 33 souls on it in its
Rico and I had 33 souls on it in its sank and it sank because the forecast
sank and it sank because the forecast
sank and it sank because the forecast was wrong the captain looked at the NOAA
was wrong the captain looked at the NOAA
was wrong the captain looked at the NOAA forecast and he made a bet and the bet
forecast and he made a bet and the bet
forecast and he made a bet and the bet didn’t pay off and a lot of those 33
didn’t pay off and a lot of those 33
didn’t pay off and a lot of those 33 people were from New England they went
people were from New England they went
people were from New England they went to mass maritime or Maine Maritime
to mass maritime or Maine Maritime
to mass maritime or Maine Maritime Academy
Academy
Academy it’s very sad and we were watching this
it’s very sad and we were watching this
it’s very sad and we were watching this on the news while we were in our little
on the news while we were in our little
on the news while we were in our little control bunker at Warner Robins and we
control bunker at Warner Robins and we
control bunker at Warner Robins and we had no idea but we were right over it at
had no idea but we were right over it at
had no idea but we were right over it at one point a few hours afterwards so we
one point a few hours afterwards so we
one point a few hours afterwards so we are we were over sampling the storm no
are we were over sampling the storm no
are we were over sampling the storm no storm has ever been sampled like this up
storm has ever been sampled like this up
storm has ever been sampled like this up until this point it was very exciting
until this point it was very exciting
until this point it was very exciting but it was kind of a sobering moment
but it was kind of a sobering moment
but it was kind of a sobering moment because the real pain hit home that
because the real pain hit home that
because the real pain hit home that we’re doing this for a reason it turns
we’re doing this for a reason it turns
we’re doing this for a reason it turns out that 50% of our population lives
out that 50% of our population lives
out that 50% of our population lives within 50 miles of a coastline so it’s
within 50 miles of a coastline so it’s
within 50 miles of a coastline so it’s very likely that someone you know will
very likely that someone you know will
very likely that someone you know will be affected in their lifetime by one of
be affected in their lifetime by one of
be affected in their lifetime by one of these storms and it’s not it’s not a
these storms and it’s not it’s not a
these storms and it’s not it’s not a tornado in the terms of it’s a tight
tornado in the terms of it’s a tight
tornado in the terms of it’s a tight mess in a certain town it’ll wipe out
mess in a certain town it’ll wipe out
mess in a certain town it’ll wipe out entire cities so it’s just bound to
entire cities so it’s just bound to
entire cities so it’s just bound to happen it happened in New Orleans it’s
happen it happened in New Orleans it’s
happen it happened in New Orleans it’s bound to happen again but this was a
bound to happen again but this was a
bound to happen again but this was a real sort of human aspect that hit us so
real sort of human aspect that hit us so
real sort of human aspect that hit us so by the way that’s the eye of Hurricane
by the way that’s the eye of Hurricane
by the way that’s the eye of Hurricane Joaquin taken from the camera under the
Joaquin taken from the camera under the
Joaquin taken from the camera under the plane and I showed you how tiny it was
plane and I showed you how tiny it was
plane and I showed you how tiny it was so this was kind of a Frankenstein hike
so this was kind of a Frankenstein hike
so this was kind of a Frankenstein hike storm it was a very tight I very very
storm it was a very tight I very very
storm it was a very tight I very very intense and the next hurricane happened
intense and the next hurricane happened
intense and the next hurricane happened in the Pacific this was the last one and
in the Pacific this was the last one and
in the Pacific this was the last one and this is where it got kind of exciting
this is where it got kind of exciting
this is where it got kind of exciting cuz the Navy almost didn’t go
cuz the Navy almost didn’t go
cuz the Navy almost didn’t go we had already chased three storms we
we had already chased three storms we
we had already chased three storms we were running low on supplies they were
were running low on supplies they were
were running low on supplies they were running low on money and they said well
running low on money and they said well
running low on money and they said well maybe we’ll we’ll keep some dry powder
maybe we’ll we’ll keep some dry powder
maybe we’ll we’ll keep some dry powder for next year we’ll go in 2016 well
for next year we’ll go in 2016 well
for next year we’ll go in 2016 well there was one scientist who pounded his
there was one scientist who pounded his
there was one scientist who pounded his fist on the table said these are the
fist on the table said these are the
fist on the table said these are the ideal conditions this is the storm we’ve
ideal conditions this is the storm we’ve
ideal conditions this is the storm we’ve been waiting for and there was no storm
been waiting for and there was no storm
been waiting for and there was no storm so this is five days ahead of Patricia
so this is five days ahead of Patricia
so this is five days ahead of Patricia which is what you’re looking at track
which is what you’re looking at track
which is what you’re looking at track this is October 21st to 24th in 2015 so
this is October 21st to 24th in 2015 so
this is October 21st to 24th in 2015 so we get over the storm on the first day
we get over the storm on the first day
we get over the storm on the first day because essentially they couldn’t shut
because essentially they couldn’t shut
because essentially they couldn’t shut Russ up and we get there and there’s no
Russ up and we get there and there’s no
Russ up and we get there and there’s no hurricane and we’re all looking at each
hurricane and we’re all looking at each
hurricane and we’re all looking at each other like oh boy we just wasted a
other like oh boy we just wasted a
other like oh boy we just wasted a hundred thousand dollars this is bad and
hundred thousand dollars this is bad and
hundred thousand dollars this is bad and the first day we dropped 13 sensors and
the first day we dropped 13 sensors and
the first day we dropped 13 sensors and we said well maybe we’re down here we
we said well maybe we’re down here we
we said well maybe we’re down here we might as well wait for a second day the
might as well wait for a second day the
might as well wait for a second day the second day was a category one the third
second day was a category one the third
second day was a category one the third day was a category five this thing
day was a category five this thing
day was a category five this thing rapidly intensified to beat the band on
rapidly intensified to beat the band on
rapidly intensified to beat the band on the fourth day it was off the charts it
the fourth day it was off the charts it
the fourth day it was off the charts it was literally like a category seven
was literally like a category seven
was literally like a category seven so this is a bird’s-eye view of the
so this is a bird’s-eye view of the
so this is a bird’s-eye view of the sensors as we crossed it on the fourth
sensors as we crossed it on the fourth
sensors as we crossed it on the fourth day and these are the trajectories the
day and these are the trajectories the
day and these are the trajectories the Sonde’s took and it took a long time it
Sonde’s took and it took a long time it
Sonde’s took and it took a long time it we did we didn’t do this instantly and
we did we didn’t do this instantly and
we did we didn’t do this instantly and the science is still pretty young on
the science is still pretty young on
the science is still pretty young on what I’m about to show you but what we
what I’m about to show you but what we
what I’m about to show you but what we found is both hurricane Joaquin and
found is both hurricane Joaquin and
found is both hurricane Joaquin and hurricane Patricia which turns out to be
hurricane Patricia which turns out to be
hurricane Patricia which turns out to be the strongest hurricane ever observed in
the strongest hurricane ever observed in
the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere period end of
the Western Hemisphere period end of
the Western Hemisphere period end of sentence this was a monster
sentence this was a monster
sentence this was a monster by any measure Louis central pressure
by any measure Louis central pressure
by any measure Louis central pressure 200 not plus winds verified by a plane
200 not plus winds verified by a plane
200 not plus winds verified by a plane at a thousand feet with a radar on it
at a thousand feet with a radar on it
at a thousand feet with a radar on it and drops ons by the bucketload and it
and drops ons by the bucketload and it
and drops ons by the bucketload and it was tilted like a twister like a
was tilted like a twister like a
was tilted like a twister like a waterspout and it turns out that this
waterspout and it turns out that this
waterspout and it turns out that this twist because we flew one way and we
twist because we flew one way and we
twist because we flew one way and we came around in a couple hours flew the
came around in a couple hours flew the
came around in a couple hours flew the other way orthogonal e we could measure
other way orthogonal e we could measure
other way orthogonal e we could measure the rotational speed so just like the
the rotational speed so just like the
the rotational speed so just like the Earth’s axis that’s tilted and it’s
Earth’s axis that’s tilted and it’s
Earth’s axis that’s tilted and it’s processing the Earth’s causes the
processing the Earth’s causes the
processing the Earth’s causes the seasons but the hurricane if that axis
seasons but the hurricane if that axis
seasons but the hurricane if that axis tilt that axial tilt is in phase with
tilt that axial tilt is in phase with
tilt that axial tilt is in phase with the Sun coming up remember the Sun is
the Sun coming up remember the Sun is
the Sun coming up remember the Sun is pushing all this it’s all thermodynamic
pushing all this it’s all thermodynamic
pushing all this it’s all thermodynamic it’s the heat input if it’s in phase
it’s the heat input if it’s in phase
it’s the heat input if it’s in phase with the solar signal then it’s like
with the solar signal then it’s like
with the solar signal then it’s like pushing a kid on a swing at the right
pushing a kid on a swing at the right
pushing a kid on a swing at the right time the swing goes higher you push at
time the swing goes higher you push at
time the swing goes higher you push at the right time the swing moves push at
the right time the swing moves push at
the right time the swing moves push at the wrong time the swing stops we think
the wrong time the swing stops we think
the wrong time the swing stops we think that this might be the key to unlocking
that this might be the key to unlocking
that this might be the key to unlocking the intensity forecast to figure out why
the intensity forecast to figure out why
the intensity forecast to figure out why for instance hurricane Matthew a couple
for instance hurricane Matthew a couple
for instance hurricane Matthew a couple months ago became a superstorm all of a
months ago became a superstorm all of a
months ago became a superstorm all of a sudden and before that it wasn’t very
sudden and before that it wasn’t very
sudden and before that it wasn’t very powerful so again the days are young for
powerful so again the days are young for
powerful so again the days are young for the science but it looks it looks
the science but it looks it looks
the science but it looks it looks promising there’s a picture by the way
promising there’s a picture by the way
promising there’s a picture by the way it’s sixty-two thousand feet taken by
it’s sixty-two thousand feet taken by
it’s sixty-two thousand feet taken by the backseat navigator at hurricane
the backseat navigator at hurricane
the backseat navigator at hurricane Patricia and those cloud towers are just
Patricia and those cloud towers are just
Patricia and those cloud towers are just about flight altitude and there’s plane
about flight altitude and there’s plane
about flight altitude and there’s plane Minh Tuan to fly it’s flying in a tenth
Minh Tuan to fly it’s flying in a tenth
Minh Tuan to fly it’s flying in a tenth of an atmosphere it does not want to fly
of an atmosphere it does not want to fly
of an atmosphere it does not want to fly through clouds at 62 thousand feet the
through clouds at 62 thousand feet the
through clouds at 62 thousand feet the plane was coming back with salt on it
plane was coming back with salt on it
plane was coming back with salt on it which nobody could believe how could
which nobody could believe how could
which nobody could believe how could salt get up there this was a super
salt get up there this was a super
salt get up there this was a super typhoon it was amazing by the way look
typhoon it was amazing by the way look
typhoon it was amazing by the way look at how dark the sky is this is the
at how dark the sky is this is the
at how dark the sky is this is the middle of the day this shows you how
middle of the day this shows you how
middle of the day this shows you how little air there is up there because
little air there is up there because
little air there is up there because there’s no Rayleigh scattering going on
there’s no Rayleigh scattering going on
there’s no Rayleigh scattering going on which is what makes the sky blue so
which is what makes the sky blue so
which is what makes the sky blue so where are we headed we’re headed towards
where are we headed we’re headed towards
where are we headed we’re headed towards doing this with robots so the Navy has
doing this with robots so the Navy has
doing this with robots so the Navy has about 68 Triton UAVs which is the top on
about 68 Triton UAVs which is the top on
about 68 Triton UAVs which is the top on order and we’re gonna hopefully put
order and we’re gonna hopefully put
order and we’re gonna hopefully put these robots in the back of them so we
these robots in the back of them so we
these robots in the back of them so we can fly unmanned aerial vehicles about
can fly unmanned aerial vehicles about
can fly unmanned aerial vehicles about 26 people have died
26 people have died
26 people have died surveilling hurricanes in the past 40 or
surveilling hurricanes in the past 40 or
surveilling hurricanes in the past 40 or 50 years it’s dangerous work it’s not
50 years it’s dangerous work it’s not
50 years it’s dangerous work it’s not work for people it should be done by
work for people it should be done by
work for people it should be done by robots but the lower left corner is I
robots but the lower left corner is I
robots but the lower left corner is I think the real engineering solution it’s
think the real engineering solution it’s
think the real engineering solution it’s kind of crazy to move a hundred and
kind of crazy to move a hundred and
kind of crazy to move a hundred and fifty thousand pound airplane full of
fifty thousand pound airplane full of
fifty thousand pound airplane full of people and jet fuel over a storm to drop
people and jet fuel over a storm to drop
people and jet fuel over a storm to drop a 50 gram item think about form fit and
a 50 gram item think about form fit and
a 50 gram item think about form fit and function it’s it’s crazy what we should
function it’s it’s crazy what we should
function it’s it’s crazy what we should be doing is solar-powered drones that
be doing is solar-powered drones that
be doing is solar-powered drones that sit up there for months powered by the
sit up there for months powered by the
sit up there for months powered by the Sun and batteries and electricity and
Sun and batteries and electricity and
Sun and batteries and electricity and you you Park him up there and they drop
you you Park him up there and they drop
you you Park him up there and they drop the sensors on command so they start a
the sensors on command so they start a
the sensors on command so they start a loiter up there and I think that’s the
loiter up there and I think that’s the
loiter up there and I think that’s the future so that’s where we’re headed but
future so that’s where we’re headed but
future so that’s where we’re headed but it’s uh here’s the four sequence days of
it’s uh here’s the four sequence days of
it’s uh here’s the four sequence days of Patricia showing kind of a the flight
Patricia showing kind of a the flight
Patricia showing kind of a the flight pattern it was exciting yet terrifying
pattern it was exciting yet terrifying
pattern it was exciting yet terrifying to get over Patricia and it was
to get over Patricia and it was
to get over Patricia and it was fulfilling in terms of we had
fulfilling in terms of we had
fulfilling in terms of we had accomplished something but it was also a
accomplished something but it was also a
accomplished something but it was also a great sacrifice and that’s a cautionary
great sacrifice and that’s a cautionary
great sacrifice and that’s a cautionary tale that if you get so pulled into it
tale that if you get so pulled into it
tale that if you get so pulled into it and this happens in the movie twister
and this happens in the movie twister
and this happens in the movie twister that your family forgets where you are
that your family forgets where you are
that your family forgets where you are what you’re doing there’s a sacrifice
what you’re doing there’s a sacrifice
what you’re doing there’s a sacrifice involved and my family sacrificed quite
involved and my family sacrificed quite
involved and my family sacrificed quite a bit and also my team’s families and
a bit and also my team’s families and
a bit and also my team’s families and that was an unexpected result but
that was an unexpected result but
that was an unexpected result but thankfully they they stood by me so it’s
thankfully they they stood by me so it’s
thankfully they they stood by me so it’s a cautionary note dedicate your
a cautionary note dedicate your
a cautionary note dedicate your something yourself to do something
something yourself to do something
something yourself to do something important write down your goals and work
important write down your goals and work
important write down your goals and work towards those goals don’t let anything
towards those goals don’t let anything
towards those goals don’t let anything stop you thank you
stop you thank you
stop you thank you [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] you
”
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