[Applause] so ladies and gentleman call me Richard
so ladies and gentleman call me Richard
so ladies and gentleman call me Richard I simply so I’m going to talk about
I simply so I’m going to talk about
I simply so I’m going to talk about changing the norm and I’m going to talk
changing the norm and I’m going to talk
changing the norm and I’m going to talk about the business of changing armed
about the business of changing armed
about the business of changing armed forces I think specifically the Armed
forces I think specifically the Armed
forces I think specifically the Armed Forces of the United Kingdom although in
Forces of the United Kingdom although in
Forces of the United Kingdom although in its bones this is really no different to
its bones this is really no different to
its bones this is really no different to changing other any other institution or
changing other any other institution or
changing other any other institution or organization that you may now or in the
organization that you may now or in the
organization that you may now or in the future be be part of its process you
future be be part of its process you
future be be part of its process you have to understand the journey that
have to understand the journey that
have to understand the journey that you’ve traveled in all its richness and
you’ve traveled in all its richness and
you’ve traveled in all its richness and complexity and uncertainty you then have
complexity and uncertainty you then have
complexity and uncertainty you then have to understand where you are now and
to understand where you are now and
to understand where you are now and accept that it’s not frozen there are
accept that it’s not frozen there are
accept that it’s not frozen there are the aspects of your current situation
the aspects of your current situation
the aspects of your current situation which even now are changing and even
which even now are changing and even
which even now are changing and even when you’ve done that then you have to
when you’ve done that then you have to
when you’ve done that then you have to stretch yourself as far into the future
stretch yourself as far into the future
stretch yourself as far into the future you can look to make sure you are
you can look to make sure you are
you can look to make sure you are grasping the risks and opportunities of
grasping the risks and opportunities of
grasping the risks and opportunities of the future or you’ll be designing
the future or you’ll be designing
the future or you’ll be designing yourself into sustained obsolescence and
yourself into sustained obsolescence and
yourself into sustained obsolescence and if you’re capable of doing all of those
if you’re capable of doing all of those
if you’re capable of doing all of those things whether you’re changing armed
things whether you’re changing armed
things whether you’re changing armed forces or anything else then you
forces or anything else then you
forces or anything else then you absolutely then have to make change
absolutely then have to make change
absolutely then have to make change happen it won’t happen without
happen it won’t happen without
happen it won’t happen without leadership and effort unless you choose
leadership and effort unless you choose
leadership and effort unless you choose simply to be a victim of an uncertain
simply to be a victim of an uncertain
simply to be a victim of an uncertain future so let’s look at the journey
future so let’s look at the journey
future so let’s look at the journey traveled by Western and specifically the
traveled by Western and specifically the
traveled by Western and specifically the United Kingdom armed forces because it
United Kingdom armed forces because it
United Kingdom armed forces because it it matters and it should provoke some
it matters and it should provoke some
it matters and it should provoke some interesting questions about the future
interesting questions about the future
interesting questions about the future so the history is clear and this is
so the history is clear and this is
so the history is clear and this is history and imperial history then the
history and imperial history then the
history and imperial history then the world wars of the last century first
world wars of the last century first
world wars of the last century first world war Second World War streaming
world war Second World War streaming
world war Second World War streaming seamlessly into the frozen conflict at
seamlessly into the frozen conflict at
seamlessly into the frozen conflict at scale of the cold war and that finished
scale of the cold war and that finished
scale of the cold war and that finished in 1989 and for many armed forces
in 1989 and for many armed forces
in 1989 and for many armed forces including the British Armed Forces that
including the British Armed Forces that
including the British Armed Forces that was a shock because that was the end of
was a shock because that was the end of
was a shock because that was the end of a piece of history that was familiar
a piece of history that was familiar
a piece of history that was familiar where armed forces exist is as large
where armed forces exist is as large
where armed forces exist is as large conventional forces fielded on an
conventional forces fielded on an
conventional forces fielded on an enduring basis
enduring basis
enduring basis and then suddenly the requirement for
and then suddenly the requirement for
and then suddenly the requirement for that had lapsed and some people declared
that had lapsed and some people declared
that had lapsed and some people declared the end of history I was a bit
the end of history I was a bit
the end of history I was a bit optimistic so there was that a process
optimistic so there was that a process
optimistic so there was that a process of redefinition as expressly the
of redefinition as expressly the
of redefinition as expressly the campaign’s that I and others have taken
campaign’s that I and others have taken
campaign’s that I and others have taken part in the Balkans of Bosnia Kosovo and
part in the Balkans of Bosnia Kosovo and
part in the Balkans of Bosnia Kosovo and then Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya now
then Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya now
then Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya now Syria and the crucial thing for you to
Syria and the crucial thing for you to
Syria and the crucial thing for you to remember there but those those
remember there but those those
remember there but those those particular campaigns is that they were
particular campaigns is that they were
particular campaigns is that they were all abroad so it was an away match they
all abroad so it was an away match they
all abroad so it was an away match they were limited in scale and duration at no
were limited in scale and duration at no
were limited in scale and duration at no time was your homeland at risk or indeed
time was your homeland at risk or indeed
time was your homeland at risk or indeed your future prosperity or your prospects
your future prosperity or your prospects
your future prosperity or your prospects and that’s bred a certain sense about
and that’s bred a certain sense about
and that’s bred a certain sense about what the British and other European
what the British and other European
what the British and other European armed forces should be like in the
armed forces should be like in the
armed forces should be like in the future but now you have to ask yourself
future but now you have to ask yourself
future but now you have to ask yourself can you be sure that the future going
can you be sure that the future going
can you be sure that the future going forward is going to be as secure and
forward is going to be as secure and
forward is going to be as secure and benign as the recent past and then we
benign as the recent past and then we
benign as the recent past and then we need to look at some economics it is
need to look at some economics it is
need to look at some economics it is very simple if over 25 years you reduce
very simple if over 25 years you reduce
very simple if over 25 years you reduce your defence budgets from roughly four
your defence budgets from roughly four
your defence budgets from roughly four percent of gross domestic product down
percent of gross domestic product down
percent of gross domestic product down to two percent of gross domestic product
to two percent of gross domestic product
to two percent of gross domestic product even if you maintain the size of your
even if you maintain the size of your
even if you maintain the size of your defense budget in real terms the fact is
defense budget in real terms the fact is
defense budget in real terms the fact is over 25 years if the cost of your people
over 25 years if the cost of your people
over 25 years if the cost of your people your equipment your activity and your
your equipment your activity and your
your equipment your activity and your logistics continue to inflate above
logistics continue to inflate above
logistics continue to inflate above inflation year-on-year and they will and
inflation year-on-year and they will and
inflation year-on-year and they will and for high-end in equipment somewhere
for high-end in equipment somewhere
for high-end in equipment somewhere between seven and eleven percent then
between seven and eleven percent then
between seven and eleven percent then over time inevitably no matter how
over time inevitably no matter how
over time inevitably no matter how efficient you think you can be you will
efficient you think you can be you will
efficient you think you can be you will buy less equipment you will hire fewer
buy less equipment you will hire fewer
buy less equipment you will hire fewer people you will do less stuff and you
people you will do less stuff and you
people you will do less stuff and you will hollow out your stocks and if you
will hollow out your stocks and if you
will hollow out your stocks and if you do that for 25 years there is a risk
do that for 25 years there is a risk
do that for 25 years there is a risk that you will boil your frog but you’ll
that you will boil your frog but you’ll
that you will boil your frog but you’ll have something that thinks its Armed
have something that thinks its Armed
have something that thinks its Armed Forces that looks like Armed Forces but
Forces that looks like Armed Forces but
Forces that looks like Armed Forces but is so small and feeble that actually
is so small and feeble that actually
is so small and feeble that actually it’s fine as long as you don’t need it
it’s fine as long as you don’t need it
it’s fine as long as you don’t need it and that absolutely is a great place to
and that absolutely is a great place to
and that absolutely is a great place to be if you feel safe and you’re sure the
be if you feel safe and you’re sure the
be if you feel safe and you’re sure the future is going to be as benign going
future is going to be as benign going
future is going to be as benign going forward as the reefs
forward as the reefs
forward as the reefs past so let’s look at the world as it is
past so let’s look at the world as it is
past so let’s look at the world as it is already changing your world the first
already changing your world the first
already changing your world the first thing is there is no shortage of
thing is there is no shortage of
thing is there is no shortage of conflict in our world today perhaps 42
conflict in our world today perhaps 42
conflict in our world today perhaps 42 globally we spend about 1742 billion
globally we spend about 1742 billion
globally we spend about 1742 billion dollars a year on defense warfighting
dollars a year on defense warfighting
dollars a year on defense warfighting capability there are now more than 60
capability there are now more than 60
capability there are now more than 60 million people in a world displaced by
million people in a world displaced by
million people in a world displaced by conflict alone and there are something
conflict alone and there are something
conflict alone and there are something like a hundred thousand united nations
like a hundred thousand united nations
like a hundred thousand united nations peacekeepers serving on separate
peacekeepers serving on separate
peacekeepers serving on separate operations in Africa alone so you may
operations in Africa alone so you may
operations in Africa alone so you may think as a resident of safe and secure
think as a resident of safe and secure
think as a resident of safe and secure Europe that you’ve reached the end of
Europe that you’ve reached the end of
Europe that you’ve reached the end of history and war has left you alone that
history and war has left you alone that
history and war has left you alone that is not the experience of billions of
is not the experience of billions of
is not the experience of billions of people in our world today and then we
people in our world today and then we
people in our world today and then we need to have a conversation about the
need to have a conversation about the
need to have a conversation about the nature of war itself it is an aspect of
nature of war itself it is an aspect of
nature of war itself it is an aspect of the human condition if you like part of
the human condition if you like part of
the human condition if you like part of our biological baggage that remains
our biological baggage that remains
our biological baggage that remains unaltered over the centuries it is
unaltered over the centuries it is
unaltered over the centuries it is unreasonable irrational feral stupid
unreasonable irrational feral stupid
unreasonable irrational feral stupid dangerous disruptive destructive almost
dangerous disruptive destructive almost
dangerous disruptive destructive almost always disappointing and almost always
always disappointing and almost always
always disappointing and almost always ends badly and almost always starts for
ends badly and almost always starts for
ends badly and almost always starts for really bad reasons but it is absolutely
really bad reasons but it is absolutely
really bad reasons but it is absolutely part of the human condition so just
part of the human condition so just
part of the human condition so just because you’ve had the luxury of 25
because you’ve had the luxury of 25
because you’ve had the luxury of 25 years of our comfortable post-cold war
years of our comfortable post-cold war
years of our comfortable post-cold war era does not mean that you should
era does not mean that you should
era does not mean that you should benchmark your armed forces against your
benchmark your armed forces against your
benchmark your armed forces against your preferred form of warfare maybe the
preferred form of warfare maybe the
preferred form of warfare maybe the things you’ve done recently you have to
things you’ve done recently you have to
things you’ve done recently you have to remember that for millions of people
remember that for millions of people
remember that for millions of people wore the nature of war is like this and
wore the nature of war is like this and
wore the nature of war is like this and it never changes and partly for those
it never changes and partly for those
it never changes and partly for those reasons it’s not helpful to talk about
reasons it’s not helpful to talk about
reasons it’s not helpful to talk about peace and war in the modern age there’s
peace and war in the modern age there’s
peace and war in the modern age there’s not a switch that you throw except
not a switch that you throw except
not a switch that you throw except perhaps in law where you say we were at
perhaps in law where you say we were at
perhaps in law where you say we were at peace and now we’re at war any country
peace and now we’re at war any country
peace and now we’re at war any country this happens to be the United Kingdom
this happens to be the United Kingdom
this happens to be the United Kingdom any country exists with a spectrum of
any country exists with a spectrum of
any country exists with a spectrum of relationships with the people that it
relationships with the people that it
relationships with the people that it deals with in the world so we will
deals with in the world so we will
deals with in the world so we will cooperate with some we will compete with
cooperate with some we will compete with
cooperate with some we will compete with others we will confront or be confronted
others we will confront or be confronted
others we will confront or be confronted by some states and will be locked in a
by some states and will be locked in a
by some states and will be locked in a state
state
state conflict with others and in the
conflict with others and in the
conflict with others and in the particular case of our time Isis for
particular case of our time Isis for
particular case of our time Isis for sure now and you have to manage that on
sure now and you have to manage that on
sure now and you have to manage that on a daily business on a daily basis and
a daily business on a daily basis and
a daily business on a daily basis and tune your armed forces to deal with the
tune your armed forces to deal with the
tune your armed forces to deal with the world has its actually turned out day by
world has its actually turned out day by
world has its actually turned out day by day not the world that you would have it
day not the world that you would have it
day not the world that you would have it be and you would then have to recognize
be and you would then have to recognize
be and you would then have to recognize but even if the nature of war doesn’t
but even if the nature of war doesn’t
but even if the nature of war doesn’t change the way it’s conducted in terms
change the way it’s conducted in terms
change the way it’s conducted in terms of ideas and equipment and capability in
of ideas and equipment and capability in
of ideas and equipment and capability in the jargon changes all the time and
the jargon changes all the time and
the jargon changes all the time and here’s some examples this first one here
here’s some examples this first one here
here’s some examples this first one here is the evolution of terrorism and
is the evolution of terrorism and
is the evolution of terrorism and extremism in our time so traditionally
extremism in our time so traditionally
extremism in our time so traditionally terrorism for us would be small groups
terrorism for us would be small groups
terrorism for us would be small groups of people armed with bombs and bullets
of people armed with bombs and bullets
of people armed with bombs and bullets we tried to kill policemen and soldiers
we tried to kill policemen and soldiers
we tried to kill policemen and soldiers will blow up public buildings if you
will blow up public buildings if you
will blow up public buildings if you like the traditional model of the
like the traditional model of the
like the traditional model of the Northern Irish terrorism that came out
Northern Irish terrorism that came out
Northern Irish terrorism that came out of the of the troubles now sadly I
of the of the troubles now sadly I
of the of the troubles now sadly I happily now well contained however
happily now well contained however
happily now well contained however terrorism in our time is completely
terrorism in our time is completely
terrorism in our time is completely different the terrorists of our time
different the terrorists of our time
different the terrorists of our time don’t expect to go home so they come
don’t expect to go home so they come
don’t expect to go home so they come with a gun and they come wearing a
with a gun and they come wearing a
with a gun and they come wearing a suicide vest and they come in numbers
suicide vest and they come in numbers
suicide vest and they come in numbers and they are an existential fit they
and they are an existential fit they
and they are an existential fit they mean to terminate your way of life and
mean to terminate your way of life and
mean to terminate your way of life and they don’t mind who they kill along the
they don’t mind who they kill along the
they don’t mind who they kill along the way and they aspire to step into weapons
way and they aspire to step into weapons
way and they aspire to step into weapons of mass destruction whether that’s
of mass destruction whether that’s
of mass destruction whether that’s home-cooked chemical weapons or
home-cooked chemical weapons or
home-cooked chemical weapons or biological weapons or to acquire other
biological weapons or to acquire other
biological weapons or to acquire other people’s missiles so this has to be
people’s missiles so this has to be
people’s missiles so this has to be dealt with because this is a problem
dealt with because this is a problem
dealt with because this is a problem that has presented itself even if we
that has presented itself even if we
that has presented itself even if we didn’t want it and then in our age
didn’t want it and then in our age
didn’t want it and then in our age there’s the issue of the significance of
there’s the issue of the significance of
there’s the issue of the significance of ballistic missiles now this will not
ballistic missiles now this will not
ballistic missiles now this will not have troubled you at all but you will
have troubled you at all but you will
have troubled you at all but you will have heard of nuclear missiles but in
have heard of nuclear missiles but in
have heard of nuclear missiles but in the age we now live in a modern
the age we now live in a modern
the age we now live in a modern conventional that is to say a missile
conventional that is to say a missile
conventional that is to say a missile with a high-explosive warhead in the
with a high-explosive warhead in the
with a high-explosive warhead in the hands of countries which we may not be
hands of countries which we may not be
hands of countries which we may not be on best terms with is capable of
on best terms with is capable of
on best terms with is capable of reaching your homeland and when it comes
reaching your homeland and when it comes
reaching your homeland and when it comes if it comes it comes at Mac six to seven
if it comes it comes at Mac six to seven
if it comes it comes at Mac six to seven it will bring an eight hundred kilogram
it will bring an eight hundred kilogram
it will bring an eight hundred kilogram high-explosive warhead it’ll have an
high-explosive warhead it’ll have an
high-explosive warhead it’ll have an accuracy of about two meters it’s very
accuracy of about two meters it’s very
accuracy of about two meters it’s very precise
precise
precise and it will carry onboard its own
and it will carry onboard its own
and it will carry onboard its own defensive suite are really hard to shoot
defensive suite are really hard to shoot
defensive suite are really hard to shoot down and it is of course as I say
down and it is of course as I say
down and it is of course as I say traveling extremely quickly so none of
traveling extremely quickly so none of
traveling extremely quickly so none of these things featured in the Balkans or
these things featured in the Balkans or
these things featured in the Balkans or Afghanistan or Iraq but they are now
Afghanistan or Iraq but they are now
Afghanistan or Iraq but they are now feature of the modern world and it’s not
feature of the modern world and it’s not
feature of the modern world and it’s not just the stuff that might come our way
just the stuff that might come our way
just the stuff that might come our way in the future there’s also the question
in the future there’s also the question
in the future there’s also the question of in the jargon a2/ad aerial denial
of in the jargon a2/ad aerial denial
of in the jargon a2/ad aerial denial anti-access have thoughtful investment
anti-access have thoughtful investment
anti-access have thoughtful investment by many nations around the world in
by many nations around the world in
by many nations around the world in advanced technology that is designed to
advanced technology that is designed to
advanced technology that is designed to keep other people’s air forces navies
keep other people’s air forces navies
keep other people’s air forces navies and submarines out of their territory so
and submarines out of their territory so
and submarines out of their territory so for example the way I air forces have
for example the way I air forces have
for example the way I air forces have operated over territory like Afghanistan
operated over territory like Afghanistan
operated over territory like Afghanistan for a decade does not happen if you’re
for a decade does not happen if you’re
for a decade does not happen if you’re confronted by the thing on the top right
confronted by the thing on the top right
confronted by the thing on the top right there which is a an s 400 Russian
there which is a an s 400 Russian
there which is a an s 400 Russian launcher shoots aircraft down at 400
launcher shoots aircraft down at 400
launcher shoots aircraft down at 400 miles a ship won’t get within 300 miles
miles a ship won’t get within 300 miles
miles a ship won’t get within 300 miles of a coast defended by modern anti-ship
of a coast defended by modern anti-ship
of a coast defended by modern anti-ship cruise missiles and in the area
cruise missiles and in the area
cruise missiles and in the area particularly of autonomous systems
particularly of autonomous systems
particularly of autonomous systems drones in the underwater space a
drones in the underwater space a
drones in the underwater space a submarine becomes a much harder thing to
submarine becomes a much harder thing to
submarine becomes a much harder thing to sneak about the world so you have to
sneak about the world so you have to
sneak about the world so you have to consider the stuff that might be fired
consider the stuff that might be fired
consider the stuff that might be fired at you and also consider how hard it is
at you and also consider how hard it is
at you and also consider how hard it is to reach the heartland of people that
to reach the heartland of people that
to reach the heartland of people that you may fall out with in the future and
you may fall out with in the future and
you may fall out with in the future and there are couple of new things which may
there are couple of new things which may
there are couple of new things which may not be a surprise you the business of
not be a surprise you the business of
not be a surprise you the business of cyber it is a normal part of the daily
cyber it is a normal part of the daily
cyber it is a normal part of the daily interaction between states and non-state
interaction between states and non-state
interaction between states and non-state actors 2014 half of the crime in the
actors 2014 half of the crime in the
actors 2014 half of the crime in the United Kingdom at six million events
United Kingdom at six million events
United Kingdom at six million events were ascribed to cyber the global annual
were ascribed to cyber the global annual
were ascribed to cyber the global annual cost of cybercrime alone is three
cost of cybercrime alone is three
cost of cybercrime alone is three trillion dollars which happens to be the
trillion dollars which happens to be the
trillion dollars which happens to be the same cost to the US of the campaigns in
same cost to the US of the campaigns in
same cost to the US of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan it’s just a normal
Iraq and Afghanistan it’s just a normal
Iraq and Afghanistan it’s just a normal part of the way people steal information
part of the way people steal information
part of the way people steal information commit criminal acts and cause harm and
commit criminal acts and cause harm and
commit criminal acts and cause harm and disruption and in our age perhaps as it
disruption and in our age perhaps as it
disruption and in our age perhaps as it was during the height of the Second
was during the height of the Second
was during the height of the Second World War if you want to wage war you’re
World War if you want to wage war you’re
World War if you want to wage war you’re not necessarily wage war by trying to
not necessarily wage war by trying to
not necessarily wage war by trying to destroy someone’s armed forces or
destroy someone’s armed forces or
destroy someone’s armed forces or destroy their civil population but you
destroy their civil population but you
destroy their civil population but you will make their daily life hold by
will make their daily life hold by
will make their daily life hold by taking down critical now
taking down critical now
taking down critical now infrastructure so you’ve never had a day
infrastructure so you’ve never had a day
infrastructure so you’ve never had a day in your life when you wake up and
in your life when you wake up and
in your life when you wake up and there’s no power there are no atms than
there’s no power there are no atms than
there’s no power there are no atms than those supermarket distribution systems
those supermarket distribution systems
those supermarket distribution systems there’s no postal system there’s no
there’s no postal system there’s no
there’s no postal system there’s no banking there’s no air traffic control
banking there’s no air traffic control
banking there’s no air traffic control there’s no traffic control in the
there’s no traffic control in the
there’s no traffic control in the streets and your daily life comes to
streets and your daily life comes to
streets and your daily life comes to hole in the modern age modern armed
hole in the modern age modern armed
hole in the modern age modern armed forces have to deal with that sort of
forces have to deal with that sort of
forces have to deal with that sort of effect created by cyber but if necessary
effect created by cyber but if necessary
effect created by cyber but if necessary also by those precision ballistic
also by those precision ballistic
also by those precision ballistic missiles I referred to and all of that
missiles I referred to and all of that
missiles I referred to and all of that is in the world we live in now and would
is in the world we live in now and would
is in the world we live in now and would have to be factored into how you would
have to be factored into how you would
have to be factored into how you would transform modern European armed forces
transform modern European armed forces
transform modern European armed forces but let’s look at how the world is
but let’s look at how the world is
but let’s look at how the world is actually going to change and and there
actually going to change and and there
actually going to change and and there are a number of really important things
are a number of really important things
are a number of really important things they’re going to shape all walks of life
they’re going to shape all walks of life
they’re going to shape all walks of life over the next generation we live in the
over the next generation we live in the
over the next generation we live in the Asian century wealth and power is
Asian century wealth and power is
Asian century wealth and power is transitioning East the rules-based
transitioning East the rules-based
transitioning East the rules-based international order which has protected
international order which has protected
international order which has protected us and by which we have prospered is
us and by which we have prospered is
us and by which we have prospered is being challenged the institutions we
being challenged the institutions we
being challenged the institutions we have invested great confidence in our
have invested great confidence in our
have invested great confidence in our being neutered weakened and in some
being neutered weakened and in some
being neutered weakened and in some places displaced we now live for sure in
places displaced we now live for sure in
places displaced we now live for sure in a generation where we as people of this
a generation where we as people of this
a generation where we as people of this earth as we grow from seven billion to
earth as we grow from seven billion to
earth as we grow from seven billion to nine point four billion by about twenty
nine point four billion by about twenty
nine point four billion by about twenty forty five are going to outgrow the
forty five are going to outgrow the
forty five are going to outgrow the capacity of our planet to absorb all the
capacity of our planet to absorb all the
capacity of our planet to absorb all the terrible things that we do to it and to
terrible things that we do to it and to
terrible things that we do to it and to satisfy all our expectations so
satisfy all our expectations so
satisfy all our expectations so inequality migration deserta fication
inequality migration deserta fication
inequality migration deserta fication climate change population growth and
climate change population growth and
climate change population growth and aging population all of those things are
aging population all of those things are
aging population all of those things are going to shape how conflict is started
going to shape how conflict is started
going to shape how conflict is started and where it occurs in in particular
and where it occurs in in particular
and where it occurs in in particular urbanization half the world’s population
urbanization half the world’s population
urbanization half the world’s population now in cities 2045 two thirds of the
now in cities 2045 two thirds of the
now in cities 2045 two thirds of the world population in cities mega cities
world population in cities mega cities
world population in cities mega cities of more than 20 million people that is
of more than 20 million people that is
of more than 20 million people that is where war will be fought not in the on
where war will be fought not in the on
where war will be fought not in the on the North German plane or some
the North German plane or some
the North German plane or some wilderness where armed forces would much
wilderness where armed forces would much
wilderness where armed forces would much prefer to operate because it’s a simpler
prefer to operate because it’s a simpler
prefer to operate because it’s a simpler environment and then there’s this the
environment and then there’s this the
environment and then there’s this the fourth Industrial Revolution so how we
fourth Industrial Revolution so how we
fourth Industrial Revolution so how we all live and work and play and fight
all live and work and play and fight
all live and work and play and fight will be changed by combinations of data
will be changed by combinations of data
will be changed by combinations of data processing connectivity autonomous
processing connectivity autonomous
processing connectivity autonomous systems artificial intelligence robotics
systems artificial intelligence robotics
systems artificial intelligence robotics new materials
new materials
new materials use of space it started already and it
use of space it started already and it
use of space it started already and it will only accelerate over the next
will only accelerate over the next
will only accelerate over the next generation so of course if you’re
generation so of course if you’re
generation so of course if you’re transforming Armed Forces you will look
transforming Armed Forces you will look
transforming Armed Forces you will look for advantage by being on the front edge
for advantage by being on the front edge
for advantage by being on the front edge of making combinations of this
of making combinations of this
of making combinations of this technology you will not look simply to
technology you will not look simply to
technology you will not look simply to have more of the stuff that got you
have more of the stuff that got you
have more of the stuff that got you through the tricky years of the 1990s or
through the tricky years of the 1990s or
through the tricky years of the 1990s or the noughties so now you have to make
the noughties so now you have to make
the noughties so now you have to make change actually well a big important
change actually well a big important
change actually well a big important make change actually happen and here we
make change actually happen and here we
make change actually happen and here we get into the human dimension the first
get into the human dimension the first
get into the human dimension the first thing that you must have our leaders who
thing that you must have our leaders who
thing that you must have our leaders who are capable of not just running today’s
are capable of not just running today’s
are capable of not just running today’s events but also looking to the horizon
events but also looking to the horizon
events but also looking to the horizon and I know that sounds nothing like a
and I know that sounds nothing like a
and I know that sounds nothing like a revelation but it’s actually very hard
revelation but it’s actually very hard
revelation but it’s actually very hard so for our government today for example
so for our government today for example
so for our government today for example very fixated on the problem of brexit it
very fixated on the problem of brexit it
very fixated on the problem of brexit it also has to think about security and the
also has to think about security and the
also has to think about security and the changing world that I’ve described and
changing world that I’ve described and
changing world that I’ve described and then you need people who can think
then you need people who can think
then you need people who can think rigorously so strong minds and more than
rigorously so strong minds and more than
rigorously so strong minds and more than that you need great reserves of moral
that you need great reserves of moral
that you need great reserves of moral courage because you are going to
courage because you are going to
courage because you are going to challenge vested interest you’re going
challenge vested interest you’re going
challenge vested interest you’re going to have to overcome institutions and
to have to overcome institutions and
to have to overcome institutions and people who invested their lives in a
people who invested their lives in a
people who invested their lives in a particular way of doing things and now
particular way of doing things and now
particular way of doing things and now you’re going to have to decide you’re
you’re going to have to decide you’re
you’re going to have to decide you’re going to sweep it away in order to
going to sweep it away in order to
going to sweep it away in order to transform armed forces or whatever it is
transform armed forces or whatever it is
transform armed forces or whatever it is that you’re doing and in doing that you
that you’re doing and in doing that you
that you’re doing and in doing that you have to be so good at what you’re doing
have to be so good at what you’re doing
have to be so good at what you’re doing that not only can you think brilliantly
that not only can you think brilliantly
that not only can you think brilliantly and bring to that thing great moral
and bring to that thing great moral
and bring to that thing great moral courage and conviction but you can argue
courage and conviction but you can argue
courage and conviction but you can argue and many great ideas fail because
and many great ideas fail because
and many great ideas fail because although they are great and brilliant
although they are great and brilliant
although they are great and brilliant they just never well articulated so
they just never well articulated so
they just never well articulated so advocacy this important is as important
advocacy this important is as important
advocacy this important is as important as the idea and you’re going to have to
as the idea and you’re going to have to
as the idea and you’re going to have to tinker with complicated issues like this
tinker with complicated issues like this
tinker with complicated issues like this is at the UK public sector cake about
is at the UK public sector cake about
is at the UK public sector cake about seven hundred and eighty billion pounds
seven hundred and eighty billion pounds
seven hundred and eighty billion pounds a year taxpayers money and borrowing and
a year taxpayers money and borrowing and
a year taxpayers money and borrowing and if you want to transform armed forces
if you want to transform armed forces
if you want to transform armed forces you’re going to provoke really difficult
you’re going to provoke really difficult
you’re going to provoke really difficult questions like okay so we need to spend
questions like okay so we need to spend
questions like okay so we need to spend more money on defense
more money on defense
more money on defense so so how many for your hospitals would
so so how many for your hospitals would
so so how many for your hospitals would you like or more potholes in the roads
you like or more potholes in the roads
you like or more potholes in the roads or lower pensions or less employment
or lower pensions or less employment
or lower pensions or less employment protection there’s no free free right
protection there’s no free free right
protection there’s no free free right here it is an exceptionally difficult
here it is an exceptionally difficult
here it is an exceptionally difficult argue to my argument amount to people
argue to my argument amount to people
argue to my argument amount to people who live comfortable lives and have
who live comfortable lives and have
who live comfortable lives and have certain expectations that for their
certain expectations that for their
certain expectations that for their future security or the security of their
future security or the security of their
future security or the security of their children they may need have less of the
children they may need have less of the
children they may need have less of the things that they like to spend money on
things that they like to spend money on
things that they like to spend money on stuff they don’t like which are their
stuff they don’t like which are their
stuff they don’t like which are their armed forces and then you’re going to
armed forces and then you’re going to
armed forces and then you’re going to need a team and I hope many people
need a team and I hope many people
need a team and I hope many people watching this will aspire to be members
watching this will aspire to be members
watching this will aspire to be members of this sort of team so not just
of this sort of team so not just
of this sort of team so not just military people who can think of
military people who can think of
military people who can think of military ideas important though that is
military ideas important though that is
military ideas important though that is you need the scientists and engineers to
you need the scientists and engineers to
you need the scientists and engineers to develop that capability you need the
develop that capability you need the
develop that capability you need the civil servants who can manage the
civil servants who can manage the
civil servants who can manage the finances of it complicated as it will be
finances of it complicated as it will be
finances of it complicated as it will be but over time you need industry and
but over time you need industry and
but over time you need industry and others to produce these things and to
others to produce these things and to
others to produce these things and to make them competitive and affordable and
make them competitive and affordable and
make them competitive and affordable and you need technical skills which I know
you need technical skills which I know
you need technical skills which I know it sounds dull that’s so important
it sounds dull that’s so important
it sounds dull that’s so important people who can write good contracts and
people who can write good contracts and
people who can write good contracts and some people maybe some of you in this
some people maybe some of you in this
some people maybe some of you in this room will invest your lives in being
room will invest your lives in being
room will invest your lives in being good at one or more of those disciplines
good at one or more of those disciplines
good at one or more of those disciplines then you need time and money because if
then you need time and money because if
then you need time and money because if there’s one thing you need to remember
there’s one thing you need to remember
there’s one thing you need to remember in transforming armed forces which is
in transforming armed forces which is
in transforming armed forces which is you may want to have all the time in the
you may want to have all the time in the
you may want to have all the time in the world but you may find and this is the
world but you may find and this is the
world but you may find and this is the new york times from august 1914
new york times from august 1914
new york times from august 1914 asserting that a general European war is
asserting that a general European war is
asserting that a general European war is unthinkable and it broke out a month
unthinkable and it broke out a month
unthinkable and it broke out a month later so if you take the world I’ve
later so if you take the world I’ve
later so if you take the world I’ve describe to you how can you be sure that
describe to you how can you be sure that
describe to you how can you be sure that you’ve got all the time in the world in
you’ve got all the time in the world in
you’ve got all the time in the world in a leisurely way to think about
a leisurely way to think about
a leisurely way to think about transforming your own forces for a world
transforming your own forces for a world
transforming your own forces for a world that may just turn out to be more
that may just turn out to be more
that may just turn out to be more threatening than the one that you have
threatening than the one that you have
threatening than the one that you have lived in your lives so far thank you
lived in your lives so far thank you
lived in your lives so far thank you very much
very much
very much you
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