
so have you made any good decisions lately it’s not so easy to know is it if
lately it’s not so easy to know is it if
lately it’s not so easy to know is it if you did a good decision how do you know
you did a good decision how do you know
you did a good decision how do you know that it was a good one did it feel right
that it was a good one did it feel right
that it was a good one did it feel right can you give us excellent reasons for
can you give us excellent reasons for
can you give us excellent reasons for the decision are you happy about the
the decision are you happy about the
the decision are you happy about the outcome whether and how we can know that
outcome whether and how we can know that
outcome whether and how we can know that a decision is a good one is what I want
a decision is a good one is what I want
a decision is a good one is what I want to talk about today but in order to do
to talk about today but in order to do
to talk about today but in order to do so I think we have to start with an
so I think we have to start with an
so I think we have to start with an example with a decision to start the
example with a decision to start the
example with a decision to start the discussion with and I’m going to take
discussion with and I’m going to take
discussion with and I’m going to take the opportunity to use one of my
the opportunity to use one of my
the opportunity to use one of my favorite decisions it’s courtesy of the
favorite decisions it’s courtesy of the
favorite decisions it’s courtesy of the Cambridge University Library who has
Cambridge University Library who has
Cambridge University Library who has kindly enough for digitalized and made
kindly enough for digitalized and made
kindly enough for digitalized and made pictures of almost every note that
pictures of almost every note that
pictures of almost every note that Charles Darwin ever scribbled down and
Charles Darwin ever scribbled down and
Charles Darwin ever scribbled down and here’s one particularly nice note it’s
here’s one particularly nice note it’s
here’s one particularly nice note it’s written in 1838 just a few weeks before
written in 1838 just a few weeks before
written in 1838 just a few weeks before he proposed to his cousin and the two
he proposed to his cousin and the two
he proposed to his cousin and the two head is here it’s a bit hard to read but
head is here it’s a bit hard to read but
head is here it’s a bit hard to read but on the left you see the question and
on the left you see the question and
on the left you see the question and arguments for marriage and on the right
arguments for marriage and on the right
arguments for marriage and on the right you instead see arguments against
you instead see arguments against
you instead see arguments against marriage now it’s a bit hard to read and
marriage now it’s a bit hard to read and
marriage now it’s a bit hard to read and I won’t read it all out you but among
I won’t read it all out you but among
I won’t read it all out you but among the arguments for marriage we find
the arguments for marriage we find
the arguments for marriage we find things such as companion and friend in
things such as companion and friend in
things such as companion and friend in old age who will feel interested in one
old age who will feel interested in one
old age who will feel interested in one object to be beloved and played with
object to be beloved and played with
object to be beloved and played with better than a dog anyhow on the side
better than a dog anyhow on the side
better than a dog anyhow on the side with arguments against marriage we
with arguments against marriage we
with arguments against marriage we instead find things such as freedom to
instead find things such as freedom to
instead find things such as freedom to go where one liked choice of society and
go where one liked choice of society and
go where one liked choice of society and little of it conversation of clever men
little of it conversation of clever men
little of it conversation of clever men at clubs not forced to visit relatives
at clubs not forced to visit relatives
at clubs not forced to visit relatives and to bend in every trifle now as you
and to bend in every trifle now as you
and to bend in every trifle now as you may see at the end of this note his
may see at the end of this note his
may see at the end of this note his conclusion was to marry says merry merry
conclusion was to marry says merry merry
conclusion was to marry says merry merry merry QD and I actually particularly
merry QD and I actually particularly
merry QD and I actually particularly liked his last reason for reaching this
liked his last reason for reaching this
liked his last reason for reaching this conclusion where he says my god it’s
conclusion where he says my god it’s
conclusion where he says my god it’s intolerable to think of spending ones
intolerable to think of spending ones
intolerable to think of spending ones whole life like a nutria be working
whole life like a nutria be working
whole life like a nutria be working working working and nothing after all no
working working and nothing after all no
working working and nothing after all no no won’t do so he got married and the
no won’t do so he got married and the
no won’t do so he got married and the few autobiographies I’ve read about
few autobiographies I’ve read about
few autobiographies I’ve read about Darwin indicate that the marriage was
Darwin indicate that the marriage was
Darwin indicate that the marriage was happy I guess
happy I guess
happy I guess we can’t ask him any more does that mean
we can’t ask him any more does that mean
we can’t ask him any more does that mean that this was a good decision it’s kind
that this was a good decision it’s kind
that this was a good decision it’s kind of hard to say isn’t it in order to
of hard to say isn’t it in order to
of hard to say isn’t it in order to truly evaluate this decision it seems as
truly evaluate this decision it seems as
truly evaluate this decision it seems as if we would have to know what would have
if we would have to know what would have
if we would have to know what would have happened if he had not married his
happened if he had not married his
happened if he had not married his cousin what if he had married someone
cousin what if he had married someone
cousin what if he had married someone else what if he had refrained from
else what if he had refrained from
else what if he had refrained from marriage and written five other books
marriage and written five other books
marriage and written five other books that revolutionized natural science what
that revolutionized natural science what
that revolutionized natural science what if he all of a sudden changed a career
if he all of a sudden changed a career
if he all of a sudden changed a career and became something that we never heard
and became something that we never heard
and became something that we never heard of we don’t know what would have
of we don’t know what would have
of we don’t know what would have happened had he not married in the
happened had he not married in the
happened had he not married in the Wedgwood so how do we know that the
Wedgwood so how do we know that the
Wedgwood so how do we know that the decision he made was a good one I’m not
decision he made was a good one I’m not
decision he made was a good one I’m not really sure it’s so easy to answer that
really sure it’s so easy to answer that
really sure it’s so easy to answer that question and that’s what I want to talk
question and that’s what I want to talk
question and that’s what I want to talk to you about today regardless of this
to you about today regardless of this
to you about today regardless of this difficulty yeah there is a large amount
difficulty yeah there is a large amount
difficulty yeah there is a large amount of books and papers and Internet classes
of books and papers and Internet classes
of books and papers and Internet classes and help yourself tapes and you name it
and help yourself tapes and you name it
and help yourself tapes and you name it telling us what good decisions are and
telling us what good decisions are and
telling us what good decisions are and how to make them parts of this research
how to make them parts of this research
how to make them parts of this research is excellent I’m not saying that there’s
is excellent I’m not saying that there’s
is excellent I’m not saying that there’s anything wrong with this but an
anything wrong with this but an
anything wrong with this but an interesting question to ask is of course
interesting question to ask is of course
interesting question to ask is of course how do they know what a good decision is
how do they know what a good decision is
how do they know what a good decision is how can they evaluate what good
how can they evaluate what good
how can they evaluate what good decision-making is and here there seems
decision-making is and here there seems
decision-making is and here there seems to be two different types of answers to
to be two different types of answers to
to be two different types of answers to this question one answer comes from what
this question one answer comes from what
this question one answer comes from what I will call the prohibitory camp for
I will call the prohibitory camp for
I will call the prohibitory camp for people that are very cautious and they
people that are very cautious and they
people that are very cautious and they will tell us that good decisions are
will tell us that good decisions are
will tell us that good decisions are decisions that help us avoid specific
decisions that help us avoid specific
decisions that help us avoid specific pitfalls that are particularly bad for
pitfalls that are particularly bad for
pitfalls that are particularly bad for us the other group of people i will say
us the other group of people i will say
us the other group of people i will say will become to this we are part of the
will become to this we are part of the
will become to this we are part of the success oriented a view towards decision
success oriented a view towards decision
success oriented a view towards decision making and they say something like well
making and they say something like well
making and they say something like well you know use the type of decision style
you know use the type of decision style
you know use the type of decision style that general will give get you what you
that general will give get you what you
that general will give get you what you want so these are two quite different
want so these are two quite different
want so these are two quite different approaches to how good decisions should
approaches to how good decisions should
approaches to how good decisions should be made now when it comes to the
be made now when it comes to the
be made now when it comes to the precautionary or prohibitory camp the
precautionary or prohibitory camp the
precautionary or prohibitory camp the people who tell us that good
people who tell us that good
people who tell us that good decision-making is basically about
decision-making is basically about
decision-making is basically about trying to avoid certain very severe
trying to avoid certain very severe
trying to avoid certain very severe pitfalls we get a very structured and
pitfalls we get a very structured and
pitfalls we get a very structured and very well worked through idea of how you
very well worked through idea of how you
very well worked through idea of how you should proceed in your
should proceed in your
should proceed in your making in order to avoid certain really
making in order to avoid certain really
making in order to avoid certain really dangerous thinks so what are these
dangerous thinks so what are these
dangerous thinks so what are these things that we should be so scared of
things that we should be so scared of
things that we should be so scared of the most famous one is something that is
the most famous one is something that is
the most famous one is something that is usually called a money pump but I will
usually called a money pump but I will
usually called a money pump but I will translate that to a porcelain pump in my
translate that to a porcelain pump in my
translate that to a porcelain pump in my example since we are after all in the
example since we are after all in the
example since we are after all in the business of hole-making in this talk it
business of hole-making in this talk it
business of hole-making in this talk it seems so
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