[Music] today I want to talk to you about a
today I want to talk to you about a
today I want to talk to you about a simple thing simplicity itself you see
simple thing simplicity itself you see
simple thing simplicity itself you see in economics one of our guiding
in economics one of our guiding
in economics one of our guiding principles is Occam’s razor
principles is Occam’s razor
principles is Occam’s razor not bad Occam’s razor Occam’s razor is
not bad Occam’s razor Occam’s razor is
not bad Occam’s razor Occam’s razor is the principle that if two explanations
the principle that if two explanations
the principle that if two explanations of reality two descriptions of the world
of reality two descriptions of the world
of reality two descriptions of the world around us two predictions of the future
around us two predictions of the future
around us two predictions of the future are equally good then let’s choose the
are equally good then let’s choose the
are equally good then let’s choose the simpler explanation the reason for that
simpler explanation the reason for that
simpler explanation the reason for that principle is partly for our own sanity
principle is partly for our own sanity
principle is partly for our own sanity that is it’s partly about the cognition
that is it’s partly about the cognition
that is it’s partly about the cognition processes that you just heard Shelley
processes that you just heard Shelley
processes that you just heard Shelley talk about we need to filter the world
talk about we need to filter the world
talk about we need to filter the world because frankly there’s just too much
because frankly there’s just too much
because frankly there’s just too much input with billions of people making
input with billions of people making
input with billions of people making trillions of choices each and every day
trillions of choices each and every day
trillions of choices each and every day it’s frankly impossible for a single
it’s frankly impossible for a single
it’s frankly impossible for a single person a single computer or even a
person a single computer or even a
person a single computer or even a single policy regime to be able to
single policy regime to be able to
single policy regime to be able to decipher what’s going on and then to
decipher what’s going on and then to
decipher what’s going on and then to decide what we should do to enable
decide what we should do to enable
decide what we should do to enable better choices in the future so we have
better choices in the future so we have
better choices in the future so we have to make some assumptions we have to
to make some assumptions we have to
to make some assumptions we have to simplify the challenge of course is
simplify the challenge of course is
simplify the challenge of course is where do you simplify people have a
where do you simplify people have a
where do you simplify people have a tendency to simplify in the wrong places
tendency to simplify in the wrong places
tendency to simplify in the wrong places and economists mostly being people also
and economists mostly being people also
and economists mostly being people also have a tendency to simplify in the wrong
have a tendency to simplify in the wrong
have a tendency to simplify in the wrong places you’ve all heard the jokes right
places you’ve all heard the jokes right
places you’ve all heard the jokes right the classic joke is an economist a
the classic joke is an economist a
the classic joke is an economist a chemist and a physicist are all stranded
chemist and a physicist are all stranded
chemist and a physicist are all stranded on a deserted island and all they have
on a deserted island and all they have
on a deserted island and all they have are the canned food salvaged from their
are the canned food salvaged from their
are the canned food salvaged from their wreck the chemist says let’s submerge
wreck the chemist says let’s submerge
wreck the chemist says let’s submerge the cans in salt water eventually
the cans in salt water eventually
the cans in salt water eventually corrosion will eat through the metal and
corrosion will eat through the metal and
corrosion will eat through the metal and we’ll be able to eat the contents the
we’ll be able to eat the contents the
we’ll be able to eat the contents the physicist says that’ll take way too long
physicist says that’ll take way too long
physicist says that’ll take way too long instead let’s launch the cans in the air
instead let’s launch the cans in the air
instead let’s launch the cans in the air with sufficient force so that when they
with sufficient force so that when they
with sufficient force so that when they come down from the app
come down from the app
come down from the app of their trajectory they’ll land on the
of their trajectory they’ll land on the
of their trajectory they’ll land on the beach smash open and we can get at the
beach smash open and we can get at the
beach smash open and we can get at the contents The Economist says you’re both
contents The Economist says you’re both
contents The Economist says you’re both missing the easy answer assume that we
missing the easy answer assume that we
missing the easy answer assume that we have a can opener you should laugh it’s
have a can opener you should laugh it’s
have a can opener you should laugh it’s a ridiculous response and yet it’s a
a ridiculous response and yet it’s a
a ridiculous response and yet it’s a very human response why don’t we just
very human response why don’t we just
very human response why don’t we just assume we already have the answer that
assume we already have the answer that
assume we already have the answer that will save us that the arduous task of
will save us that the arduous task of
will save us that the arduous task of problem-solving this indeed is the
problem-solving this indeed is the
problem-solving this indeed is the fundamental challenge of simplicity how
fundamental challenge of simplicity how
fundamental challenge of simplicity how do we make the right assumptions so that
do we make the right assumptions so that
do we make the right assumptions so that we can see the situation clearly and not
we can see the situation clearly and not
we can see the situation clearly and not just simplistically how do we assume
just simplistically how do we assume
just simplistically how do we assume simplicity wisely as opposed to
simplicity wisely as opposed to
simplicity wisely as opposed to foolishly this is exactly the task that
foolishly this is exactly the task that
foolishly this is exactly the task that faces every innovator every entrepreneur
faces every innovator every entrepreneur
faces every innovator every entrepreneur when they come to my class on innovation
when they come to my class on innovation
when they come to my class on innovation the first thing I tell them is forget
the first thing I tell them is forget
the first thing I tell them is forget about changing the world for now just
about changing the world for now just
about changing the world for now just understand it try to describe it as
understand it try to describe it as
understand it try to describe it as richly as fully as you can the world is
richly as fully as you can the world is
richly as fully as you can the world is an incredibly complicated tapestry if
an incredibly complicated tapestry if
an incredibly complicated tapestry if you try to pull out one string and say
you try to pull out one string and say
you try to pull out one string and say this will do it the whole tapestry comes
this will do it the whole tapestry comes
this will do it the whole tapestry comes apart so instead first understand and
apart so instead first understand and
apart so instead first understand and then try to improve but where do we
then try to improve but where do we
then try to improve but where do we start first you have to understand the
start first you have to understand the
start first you have to understand the physical environment the social
physical environment the social
physical environment the social environment the preferences of the
environment the preferences of the
environment the preferences of the people involved if you don’t understand
people involved if you don’t understand
people involved if you don’t understand those you’ll definitely come up with a
those you’ll definitely come up with a
those you’ll definitely come up with a non solution but worse than that you
non solution but worse than that you
non solution but worse than that you might actually solve a non problem that
might actually solve a non problem that
might actually solve a non problem that is you might actually fix part of the
is you might actually fix part of the
is you might actually fix part of the situation that people actually enjoyed
situation that people actually enjoyed
situation that people actually enjoyed this is the challenge how do we simplify
this is the challenge how do we simplify
this is the challenge how do we simplify well one of my favorite stories is
well one of my favorite stories is
well one of my favorite stories is attributed to Niels Bohr Nobel Prize
attributed to Niels Bohr Nobel Prize
attributed to Niels Bohr Nobel Prize winner when he was an undergraduate at
winner when he was an undergraduate at
winner when he was an undergraduate at the University of Copenhagen apparently
the University of Copenhagen apparently
the University of Copenhagen apparently one of the questions on his final exam
one of the questions on his final exam
one of the questions on his final exam was
was
was describe how you would determine the
describe how you would determine the
describe how you would determine the height of a skyscraper using a barometer
height of a skyscraper using a barometer
height of a skyscraper using a barometer his response probably apocryphal is so
his response probably apocryphal is so
his response probably apocryphal is so beautiful I tell it to everyone I can
beautiful I tell it to everyone I can
beautiful I tell it to everyone I can his response apparently went like this
his response apparently went like this
his response apparently went like this to be boring you could measure the air
to be boring you could measure the air
to be boring you could measure the air pressure at ground level then walk up
pressure at ground level then walk up
pressure at ground level then walk up the stairs to the top of the skyscraper
the stairs to the top of the skyscraper
the stairs to the top of the skyscraper measure the air pressure there and then
measure the air pressure there and then
measure the air pressure there and then convert the difference in millibars into
convert the difference in millibars into
convert the difference in millibars into feet that’s the answer
feet that’s the answer
feet that’s the answer alternatively if you wanted to be a
alternatively if you wanted to be a
alternatively if you wanted to be a little bit more creative you could walk
little bit more creative you could walk
little bit more creative you could walk up to the top of the skyscraper drop the
up to the top of the skyscraper drop the
up to the top of the skyscraper drop the barometer off measure the time it took
barometer off measure the time it took
barometer off measure the time it took to hit the ground and calculate the
to hit the ground and calculate the
to hit the ground and calculate the distance based on the appropriate
distance based on the appropriate
distance based on the appropriate physics equation unfortunately you broke
physics equation unfortunately you broke
physics equation unfortunately you broke your barometer alternatively you could
your barometer alternatively you could
your barometer alternatively you could set the barometer on end measure its
set the barometer on end measure its
set the barometer on end measure its height measure the length of its shadow
height measure the length of its shadow
height measure the length of its shadow measure the length of the skyscraper
measure the length of the skyscraper
measure the length of the skyscraper shadow and it’s a measure it’s simply a
shadow and it’s a measure it’s simply a
shadow and it’s a measure it’s simply a question of proportional geometry
question of proportional geometry
question of proportional geometry proportional math to figure out how tall
proportional math to figure out how tall
proportional math to figure out how tall the skyscraper must be alternatively you
the skyscraper must be alternatively you
the skyscraper must be alternatively you could tie a short piece of string to the
could tie a short piece of string to the
could tie a short piece of string to the barometer swing it like a pendulum at
barometer swing it like a pendulum at
barometer swing it like a pendulum at ground level swing it like a pendulum at
ground level swing it like a pendulum at
ground level swing it like a pendulum at the top of the skyscraper and the
the top of the skyscraper and the
the top of the skyscraper and the difference in the gravitational
difference in the gravitational
difference in the gravitational restoring force will tell you the height
restoring force will tell you the height
restoring force will tell you the height of the building alternatively the
of the building alternatively the
of the building alternatively the simplest answer is simply walk to the
simplest answer is simply walk to the
simplest answer is simply walk to the building custodians door knock and say
building custodians door knock and say
building custodians door knock and say I’ll give you this barometer if you tell
I’ll give you this barometer if you tell
I’ll give you this barometer if you tell me how tall the building is
it turns out that in order to be simple
it turns out that in order to be simple you have to know a lot you have to know
you have to know a lot you have to know
you have to know a lot you have to know all the appropriate pieces of the
all the appropriate pieces of the
all the appropriate pieces of the environment you have to know science you
environment you have to know science you
environment you have to know science you have to know social science you have to
have to know social science you have to
have to know social science you have to know humanities you have to know oh my
know humanities you have to know oh my
know humanities you have to know oh my gosh it’s hard to be simple and that’s
gosh it’s hard to be simple and that’s
gosh it’s hard to be simple and that’s exactly the trap that an undergraduate
exactly the trap that an undergraduate
exactly the trap that an undergraduate student and I walked into nearly 20
student and I walked into nearly 20
student and I walked into nearly 20 years ago when we first started thinking
years ago when we first started thinking
years ago when we first started thinking about modeling the Olympic Games you see
about modeling the Olympic Games you see
about modeling the Olympic Games you see everyone thought they knew how and why
everyone thought they knew how and why
everyone thought they knew how and why each individual nation would win Olympic
each individual nation would win Olympic
each individual nation would win Olympic medals if you talk to politicians it was
medals if you talk to politicians it was
medals if you talk to politicians it was all about patriotism pride if you talk
all about patriotism pride if you talk
all about patriotism pride if you talk to newscasters it was all about
to newscasters it was all about
to newscasters it was all about competitive training regimes and your
competitive training regimes and your
competitive training regimes and your nutritional schedule compared to other
nutritional schedule compared to other
nutritional schedule compared to other athletes but for us the answer had to be
athletes but for us the answer had to be
athletes but for us the answer had to be simple not so simple as simply
simple not so simple as simply
simple not so simple as simply patriotism that seems foolishly simple
patriotism that seems foolishly simple
patriotism that seems foolishly simple but there had to be a mathematical
but there had to be a mathematical
but there had to be a mathematical simple model for us as economists that
simple model for us as economists that
simple model for us as economists that means putting in economics as the stuff
means putting in economics as the stuff
means putting in economics as the stuff that causes Olympic medals so where does
that causes Olympic medals so where does
that causes Olympic medals so where does an economist begin well an economist
an economist begin well an economist
an economist begin well an economist always begins with income for surely
always begins with income for surely
always begins with income for surely rich nations win more medals than poor
rich nations win more medals than poor
rich nations win more medals than poor nations don’t they to an economist that
nations don’t they to an economist that
nations don’t they to an economist that seems like an obvious assumption I mean
seems like an obvious assumption I mean
seems like an obvious assumption I mean first of all they can afford better
first of all they can afford better
first of all they can afford better equipment better training better
equipment better training better
equipment better training better nutrition but even at a baseline level
nutrition but even at a baseline level
nutrition but even at a baseline level the populations from which those
the populations from which those
the populations from which those athletes hail must surely have better
athletes hail must surely have better
athletes hail must surely have better infrastructure better health care
infrastructure better health care
infrastructure better health care actually just more ability to focus on
actually just more ability to focus on
actually just more ability to focus on athletics as opposed to getting by until
athletics as opposed to getting by until
athletics as opposed to getting by until the next day
the next day
the next day so surely rich nations should win more
so surely rich nations should win more
so surely rich nations should win more medals than poor nations no but to stop
medals than poor nations no but to stop
medals than poor nations no but to stop there would be foolishly simple so what
there would be foolishly simple so what
there would be foolishly simple so what else could matter
else could matter
else could matter well we hypothesized let’s keep it to a
well we hypothesized let’s keep it to a
well we hypothesized let’s keep it to a handful let’s say income matters
handful let’s say income matters
handful let’s say income matters probably population matters if you’re a
probably population matters if you’re a
probably population matters if you’re a large nation there’s a larger likelihood
large nation there’s a larger likelihood
large nation there’s a larger likelihood that there will be world-class athletes
that there will be world-class athletes
that there will be world-class athletes within that population and furthermore
within that population and furthermore
within that population and furthermore political structure might matter the
political structure might matter the
political structure might matter the ability for your country to marshal
ability for your country to marshal
ability for your country to marshal resources together for a particular goal
resources together for a particular goal
resources together for a particular goal climate could matter cold nations versus
climate could matter cold nations versus
climate could matter cold nations versus hot nations and of course whether you’re
hot nations and of course whether you’re
hot nations and of course whether you’re hosting the games or not should matter
hosting the games or not should matter
hosting the games or not should matter because the home-field advantage is well
because the home-field advantage is well
because the home-field advantage is well documented in sport Olympic or not
documented in sport Olympic or not
documented in sport Olympic or not now the hilarious part is in economics
now the hilarious part is in economics
now the hilarious part is in economics in order to write a simple bottle it has
in order to write a simple bottle it has
in order to write a simple bottle it has to look like this this believe it or not
to look like this this believe it or not
to look like this this believe it or not is an incredibly simple model so simple
is an incredibly simple model so simple
is an incredibly simple model so simple that my co-author ifer Ali and I were
that my co-author ifer Ali and I were
that my co-author ifer Ali and I were deemed kind of professional
deemed kind of professional
deemed kind of professional laughingstocks
laughingstocks
laughingstocks how could you even begin to believe that
how could you even begin to believe that
how could you even begin to believe that this will do anything far too simple
this will do anything far too simple
this will do anything far too simple what are you just assuming we have a can
what are you just assuming we have a can
what are you just assuming we have a can opener so we took a geeky amount of
opener so we took a geeky amount of
opener so we took a geeky amount of pleasure spending weeks months
pleasure spending weeks months
pleasure spending weeks months collecting all the data on all past
collecting all the data on all past
collecting all the data on all past Olympic Games trying to test our
Olympic Games trying to test our
Olympic Games trying to test our assertions how did we do
assertions how did we do
assertions how did we do well astonishingly well it turns out
well astonishingly well it turns out
well astonishingly well it turns out that we got just the right combination
that we got just the right combination
that we got just the right combination of knowledge simplicity and frankly luck
of knowledge simplicity and frankly luck
of knowledge simplicity and frankly luck so that in that first run of the model
so that in that first run of the model
so that in that first run of the model just before the 2000 Sydney games we
just before the 2000 Sydney games we
just before the 2000 Sydney games we successfully predicted the Olympic medal
successfully predicted the Olympic medal
successfully predicted the Olympic medal count with 87 percent accuracy that
count with 87 percent accuracy that
count with 87 percent accuracy that actually just started the story because
actually just started the story because
actually just started the story because over the succeeding two decades it’s
over the succeeding two decades it’s
over the succeeding two decades it’s gone up to 97% what does this tell you
gone up to 97% what does this tell you
gone up to 97% what does this tell you it doesn’t tell you that I’m smart it
it doesn’t tell you that I’m smart it
it doesn’t tell you that I’m smart it just tells you that I did a lot of
just tells you that I did a lot of
just tells you that I did a lot of research and I got really lucky but
research and I got really lucky but
research and I got really lucky but together the two of us I Frawley and I
together the two of us I Frawley and I
together the two of us I Frawley and I discovered some important truths we
discovered some important truths we
discovered some important truths we discovered that income frankly was even
discovered that income frankly was even
discovered that income frankly was even more important than we had thought it
more important than we had thought it
more important than we had thought it was
for example Africa while it has 1/6 of
for example Africa while it has 1/6 of the world’s population has historically
the world’s population has historically
the world’s population has historically only 1/2 percent of all Olympic medals
only 1/2 percent of all Olympic medals
only 1/2 percent of all Olympic medals the United States while it has perhaps 4
the United States while it has perhaps 4
the United States while it has perhaps 4 percent of the world’s population
percent of the world’s population
percent of the world’s population historically way over performs at the
historically way over performs at the
historically way over performs at the Olympics 17 percent roughly of all
Olympics 17 percent roughly of all
Olympics 17 percent roughly of all Olympic medals ever a lot of that
Olympic medals ever a lot of that
Olympic medals ever a lot of that student coming if you count down nations
student coming if you count down nations
student coming if you count down nations from the top of the medal standings if
from the top of the medal standings if
from the top of the medal standings if you count down ten nations they’re all
you count down ten nations they’re all
you count down ten nations they’re all rich and those ten win a full one-third
rich and those ten win a full one-third
rich and those ten win a full one-third of all Olympic medals on offer in any
of all Olympic medals on offer in any
of all Olympic medals on offer in any games that should sober you is the
games that should sober you is the
games that should sober you is the playing field truly level we found that
playing field truly level we found that
playing field truly level we found that on average a nation with $2,000 more in
on average a nation with $2,000 more in
on average a nation with $2,000 more in GDP per capita income per capita if you
GDP per capita income per capita if you
GDP per capita income per capita if you wish wins an additional Olympic medal
wish wins an additional Olympic medal
wish wins an additional Olympic medal but of course income isn’t the only
but of course income isn’t the only
but of course income isn’t the only thing that matters population matters to
thing that matters population matters to
thing that matters population matters to an additional 10 million citizens adds
an additional 10 million citizens adds
an additional 10 million citizens adds on average an additional Olympic medal
on average an additional Olympic medal
on average an additional Olympic medal political structure works matters I say
political structure works matters I say
political structure works matters I say works it turns out that single party
works it turns out that single party
works it turns out that single party regimes authoritarian regimes military
regimes authoritarian regimes military
regimes authoritarian regimes military regimes do much better than democracies
regimes do much better than democracies
regimes do much better than democracies at the Olympic Games this is not policy
at the Olympic Games this is not policy
at the Olympic Games this is not policy advice
advice
advice I’m simply saying that it’s historically
I’m simply saying that it’s historically
I’m simply saying that it’s historically true and of course the single most
true and of course the single most
true and of course the single most important factor is are you hosting the
important factor is are you hosting the
important factor is are you hosting the games the host nation traditionally wins
games the host nation traditionally wins
games the host nation traditionally wins 20 medals more than they would have won
20 medals more than they would have won
20 medals more than they would have won were they not hosting the games but
were they not hosting the games but
were they not hosting the games but think about that how often does a nation
think about that how often does a nation
think about that how often does a nation from the global South host the games I
talk about poverty as if I know I talk
talk about poverty as if I know I talk about the income gap between rich and
about the income gap between rich and
about the income gap between rich and poor as though I’ve personally been poor
poor as though I’ve personally been poor
poor as though I’ve personally been poor and and that’s not true I mean I was a
and and that’s not true I mean I was a
and and that’s not true I mean I was a graduate student so I do know what it
graduate student so I do know what it
graduate student so I do know what it means to live on ramen noodles and
means to live on ramen noodles and
means to live on ramen noodles and frozen peas but that’s not being poor
frozen peas but that’s not being poor
frozen peas but that’s not being poor that’s being temporarily financially
that’s being temporarily financially
that’s being temporarily financially constrained that’s different the only
constrained that’s different the only
constrained that’s different the only way I know about poverty is through my
way I know about poverty is through my
way I know about poverty is through my research so if you’ll permit me let’s
research so if you’ll permit me let’s
research so if you’ll permit me let’s build a model together about the income
build a model together about the income
build a model together about the income gap I know for example that if you lined
gap I know for example that if you lined
gap I know for example that if you lined up the u.s. population from poorest
up the u.s. population from poorest
up the u.s. population from poorest household to richest household on a
household to richest household on a
household to richest household on a football field the median household in
football field the median household in
football field the median household in the United States would earn about fifty
the United States would earn about fifty
the United States would earn about fifty six thousand dollars that fifty six
six thousand dollars that fifty six
six thousand dollars that fifty six thousand dollars would translate into a
thousand dollars would translate into a
thousand dollars would translate into a stack of hundred dollar bills about two
stack of hundred dollar bills about two
stack of hundred dollar bills about two and a quarter inches high compare that
and a quarter inches high compare that
and a quarter inches high compare that to the poverty line which in the United
to the poverty line which in the United
to the poverty line which in the United States right now is about seventeen
States right now is about seventeen
States right now is about seventeen thousand dollars for a family of four
that’s maybe two thirds of an inch of
that’s maybe two thirds of an inch of hundred-dollar bills and as you run
hundred-dollar bills and as you run
hundred-dollar bills and as you run upfield toward the rich end of the
upfield toward the rich end of the
upfield toward the rich end of the income distribution the 95th percentile
income distribution the 95th percentile
income distribution the 95th percentile the five-yard line has an income in
the five-yard line has an income in
the five-yard line has an income in excess of $200,000 for a household for a
excess of $200,000 for a household for a
excess of $200,000 for a household for a family of four that’s about a stack of
family of four that’s about a stack of
family of four that’s about a stack of eight inches of hundred-dollar bills as
eight inches of hundred-dollar bills as
eight inches of hundred-dollar bills as you approach the goal line the richest
you approach the goal line the richest
you approach the goal line the richest household in America
household in America
household in America that stack of hundred dollar bills is
that stack of hundred dollar bills is
that stack of hundred dollar bills is measured not in inches not even in feet
measured not in inches not even in feet
measured not in inches not even in feet its measured in miles and this is for
its measured in miles and this is for
its measured in miles and this is for the United States one of the richest
the United States one of the richest
the United States one of the richest nations in the history of the world how
nations in the history of the world how
nations in the history of the world how badly does it reset your mental model if
badly does it reset your mental model if
badly does it reset your mental model if you realize that China’s median
you realize that China’s median
you realize that China’s median household is almost exactly where our
household is almost exactly where our
household is almost exactly where our poverty line is that is half the
poverty line is that is half the
poverty line is that is half the households in China are living on less
households in China are living on less
households in China are living on less than that two thirds of an inch and
than that two thirds of an inch and
than that two thirds of an inch and China’s doing pretty well actually the
China’s doing pretty well actually the
China’s doing pretty well actually the Democratic Republic of the Congo is
Democratic Republic of the Congo is
Democratic Republic of the Congo is ninety five percent lower than that the
ninety five percent lower than that the
ninety five percent lower than that the median household in the DRC is living on
median household in the DRC is living on
median household in the DRC is living on three hundredths of an inch $800 a year
three hundredths of an inch $800 a year
three hundredths of an inch $800 a year and those are dollars corrected for
and those are dollars corrected for
and those are dollars corrected for purchasing power parity it really is as
purchasing power parity it really is as
purchasing power parity it really is as if they’re living on $800 a year how is
if they’re living on $800 a year how is
if they’re living on $800 a year how is that even possible I would argue it
that even possible I would argue it
that even possible I would argue it forces you to reset your assumptions it
forces you to reset your assumptions it
forces you to reset your assumptions it forces you to rethink your mental frame
forces you to rethink your mental frame
forces you to rethink your mental frame what do you need and what do you want it
what do you need and what do you want it
what do you need and what do you want it forces you to get really simple if you
forces you to get really simple if you
forces you to get really simple if you only have $800 a year
only have $800 a year
only have $800 a year it forces you to think very clearly
it forces you to think very clearly
it forces you to think very clearly about what it means to be rich about
about what it means to be rich about
about what it means to be rich about what it means to be hungry about what it
what it means to be hungry about what it
what it means to be hungry about what it means to be athletic
this mind resets this checking of your
this mind resets this checking of your internal assumptions is something I
internal assumptions is something I
internal assumptions is something I would encourage you to do not just now
would encourage you to do not just now
would encourage you to do not just now but regularly you see the theme of my
but regularly you see the theme of my
but regularly you see the theme of my talk is simplicity and we make simple
talk is simplicity and we make simple
talk is simplicity and we make simple assumptions all the time why well partly
assumptions all the time why well partly
assumptions all the time why well partly because it’s fun who doesn’t like to
because it’s fun who doesn’t like to
because it’s fun who doesn’t like to make a paper airplane simple models have
make a paper airplane simple models have
make a paper airplane simple models have a have a joy about them they have a
a have a joy about them they have a
a have a joy about them they have a finiteness about them they have a toy
finiteness about them they have a toy
finiteness about them they have a toy like quality about they make life easy
like quality about they make life easy
like quality about they make life easy they’re also extremely dangerous because
they’re also extremely dangerous because
they’re also extremely dangerous because simple assumptions are contextual they
simple assumptions are contextual they
simple assumptions are contextual they depend on the audience while this is a
depend on the audience while this is a
depend on the audience while this is a great model for my children it would be
great model for my children it would be
great model for my children it would be a horrible model for planning new
a horrible model for planning new
a horrible model for planning new traffic patterns at O’Hare Airport think
traffic patterns at O’Hare Airport think
traffic patterns at O’Hare Airport think about your assumptions before you
about your assumptions before you
about your assumptions before you address the problem or the audience so
address the problem or the audience so
address the problem or the audience so in the context of today’s suite of TEDx
in the context of today’s suite of TEDx
in the context of today’s suite of TEDx talks I would encourage you to mind the
talks I would encourage you to mind the
talks I would encourage you to mind the gap not just in terms of boarding a
gap not just in terms of boarding a
gap not just in terms of boarding a subway train mind the gap between your
subway train mind the gap between your
subway train mind the gap between your assumptions and reality mind the gap
assumptions and reality mind the gap
assumptions and reality mind the gap between rich and poor think about the
between rich and poor think about the
between rich and poor think about the gaps in electrical coverage in parts of
gaps in electrical coverage in parts of
gaps in electrical coverage in parts of the world that you and I have not
the world that you and I have not
the world that you and I have not visited think about the gaps in the
visited think about the gaps in the
visited think about the gaps in the roads that have been washed away think
roads that have been washed away think
roads that have been washed away think about the gaps in the availability of
about the gaps in the availability of
about the gaps in the availability of clean water or vaccinations mind the gap
clean water or vaccinations mind the gap
clean water or vaccinations mind the gap because it’s huge do you know for
because it’s huge do you know for
because it’s huge do you know for example that the median household
example that the median household
example that the median household globally earns ten thousand dollars a
globally earns ten thousand dollars a
globally earns ten thousand dollars a year that’s a household folks if your
year that’s a household folks if your
year that’s a household folks if your household earns more than thirty four
household earns more than thirty four
household earns more than thirty four thousand dollars a year you’re in the
thousand dollars a year you’re in the
thousand dollars a year you’re in the richest 1% so
richest 1% so
richest 1% so do you mind the gap I would encourage
do you mind the gap I would encourage
do you mind the gap I would encourage you to mind it daily and yet don’t mind
you to mind it daily and yet don’t mind
you to mind it daily and yet don’t mind it so much that you can’t collaborate to
it so much that you can’t collaborate to
it so much that you can’t collaborate to close it that you can’t reach a hand
close it that you can’t reach a hand
close it that you can’t reach a hand across it mind the gap so that it
across it mind the gap so that it
across it mind the gap so that it bothers you but doesn’t paralyze you
bothers you but doesn’t paralyze you
bothers you but doesn’t paralyze you keep the simple model when you need it
keep the simple model when you need it
keep the simple model when you need it but remember to constantly refresh check
but remember to constantly refresh check
but remember to constantly refresh check verify your assumptions do I mind the
verify your assumptions do I mind the
verify your assumptions do I mind the gap every day that’s what gets me up and
gap every day that’s what gets me up and
gap every day that’s what gets me up and makes me go to work but in my mind the
makes me go to work but in my mind the
makes me go to work but in my mind the gap is important because it’s worth
gap is important because it’s worth
gap is important because it’s worth bridging mind the gap and let’s get out
bridging mind the gap and let’s get out
bridging mind the gap and let’s get out there and build bridges thanks
there and build bridges thanks
there and build bridges thanks [Applause]
[Applause]
[Applause] you
you
you [Music]
”
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